In:
PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science (PLoS), Vol. 19, No. 4 ( 2023-4-27), p. e1010424-
Abstract:
The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the vector of a number of medically-important viruses, including dengue virus, yellow fever virus, chikungunya virus, and Zika virus, and as such vector control is a key approach to managing the diseases they cause. Understanding the impact of vector control on these diseases is aided by first understanding its impact on Ae . aegypti population dynamics. A number of detail-rich models have been developed to couple the dynamics of the immature and adult stages of Ae . aegypti . The numerous assumptions of these models enable them to realistically characterize impacts of mosquito control, but they also constrain the ability of such models to reproduce empirical patterns that do not conform to the models’ behavior. In contrast, statistical models afford sufficient flexibility to extract nuanced signals from noisy data, yet they have limited ability to make predictions about impacts of mosquito control on disease caused by pathogens that the mosquitoes transmit without extensive data on mosquitoes and disease. Here, we demonstrate how the differing strengths of mechanistic realism and statistical flexibility can be fused into a single model. Our analysis utilizes data from 176,352 household-level Ae . aegypti aspirator collections conducted during 1999–2011 in Iquitos, Peru. The key step in our approach is to calibrate a single parameter of the model to spatio-temporal abundance patterns predicted by a generalized additive model (GAM). In effect, this calibrated parameter absorbs residual variation in the abundance time-series not captured by other features of the mechanistic model. We then used this calibrated parameter and the literature-derived parameters in the agent-based model to explore Ae . aegypti population dynamics and the impact of insecticide spraying to kill adult mosquitoes. The baseline abundance predicted by the agent-based model closely matched that predicted by the GAM. Following spraying, the agent-based model predicted that mosquito abundance rebounds within about two months, commensurate with recent experimental data from Iquitos. Our approach was able to accurately reproduce abundance patterns in Iquitos and produce a realistic response to adulticide spraying, while retaining sufficient flexibility to be applied across a range of settings.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
1553-7358
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.g001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.g002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.g003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.g004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.g005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.g006
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.g007
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.g008
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.g009
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.g010
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.t001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.s001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.s002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.s003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.s004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.s005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.s006
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.s007
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.s008
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.s009
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.s010
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.s011
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.s012
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.s013
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.s014
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.s015
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.s016
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.s017
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.s018
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.s019
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.s020
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.s021
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.r001
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.r002
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.r003
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.r004
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.r005
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010424.r006
Language:
English
Publisher:
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Publication Date:
2023
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2193340-6
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