In:
Gut, BMJ, Vol. 70, No. 3 ( 2021-03), p. 476-484
Abstract:
Bleeding after endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) for early gastric cancer
(EGC) is a frequent adverse event after ESD. We aimed to develop and externally validate a clinically useful prediction model (BEST-J score: Bleeding after ESD Trend
from Japan) for bleeding after ESD for EGC. Design This retrospective study enrolled patients who underwent ESD for EGC. Patients
in the derivation cohort (n=8291) were recruited from 25 institutions, and patients in the external validation cohort (n=2029) were recruited from eight institutions in
other areas. In the derivation cohort, weighted points were assigned to predictors of bleeding determined in the multivariate logistic regression analysis and a prediction
model was established. External validation of the model was conducted to analyse discrimination and calibration. Results A prediction model comprised 10 variables (warfarin, direct oral anticoagulant,
chronic kidney disease with haemodialysis, P2Y12 receptor antagonist, aspirin, cilostazol, tumour size 〉 30 mm, lower-third in tumour location, presence of
multiple tumours and interruption of each kind of antithrombotic agents). The rates of bleeding after ESD at low-risk (0 to 1 points), intermediate-risk (2 points),
high-risk (3 to 4 points) and very high-risk (≥5 points) were 2.8%, 6.1%, 11.4% and 29.7%, respectively. In the external validation cohort, the model showed moderately
good discrimination, with a c -statistic of 0.70 (95% CI,
0.64 to 0.76), and good calibration (calibration-in-the-large, 0.05; calibration slope, 1.01). Conclusions In this nationwide multicentre study, we derived and externally validated a
prediction model for bleeding after ESD. This model may be a good clinical decision-making support tool for ESD in patients with EGC.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
0017-5749
,
1468-3288
DOI:
10.1136/gutjnl-2019-319926
Language:
English
Publisher:
BMJ
Publication Date:
2021
detail.hit.zdb_id:
80128-8
detail.hit.zdb_id:
1492637-4
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