In:
Palliative and Supportive Care, Cambridge University Press (CUP), Vol. 20, No. 2 ( 2022-04), p. 153-158
Abstract:
There is no widely used prognostic model for delirium in patients with advanced cancer. The present study aimed to develop a decision tree prediction model for a short-term outcome. Method This is a secondary analysis of a multicenter and prospective observational study conducted at 9 psycho-oncology consultation services and 14 inpatient palliative care units in Japan. We used records of patients with advanced cancer receiving pharmacological interventions with a baseline Delirium Rating Scale Revised-98 (DRS-R98) severity score of ≥10. A DRS-R98 severity score of 〈 10 on day 3 was defined as the study outcome. The dataset was randomly split into the training and test dataset. A decision tree model was developed using the training dataset and potential predictors. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve was measured both in 5-fold cross-validation and in the independent test dataset. Finally, the model was visualized using the whole dataset. Results Altogether, 668 records were included, of which 141 had a DRS-R98 severity score of 〈 10 on day 3. The model achieved an average AUC of 0.698 in 5-fold cross-validation and 0.718 (95% confidence interval, 0.627–0.810) in the test dataset. The baseline DRS-R98 severity score (cutoff of 15), hypoxia, and dehydration were the important predictors, in this order. Significance of results We developed an easy-to-use prediction model for the short-term outcome of delirium in patients with advanced cancer receiving pharmacological interventions. The baseline severity of delirium and precipitating factors of delirium were important for prediction.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
1478-9515
,
1478-9523
DOI:
10.1017/S1478951521001565
Language:
English
Publisher:
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Publication Date:
2022
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2121158-9
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