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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    GCAM-USA v5.3_water_dispatch: integrated modeling of subnational US energy, water, and land systems within a global framework
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2022
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development Vol. 15, No. 6 ( 2022-03-25), p. 2533-2559
    Details
    In: Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 15, No. 6 ( 2022-03-25), p. 2533-2559
    Abstract: Abstract. This paper describes GCAM-USA v5.3_water_dispatch, an open-source model that represents key interactions across economic, energy, water, and land systems in a consistent global framework with subnational detail in the United States. GCAM-USA divides the world into 31 geopolitical regions outside the United States (US) and represents the US economy and energy systems in 51 state-level regions (50 states plus the District of Columbia). The model also includes 235 water basins and 384 land use regions, and 23 of each fall at least partially within the United States. GCAM-USA offers a level of process and temporal resolution rare for models of its class and scope, including detailed subnational representation of US water demands and supplies and sub-annual operations (day and night for each month) in the US electric power sector. GCAM-USA can be used to explore how changes in socioeconomic drivers, technological progress, or policy impact demands for (and production of) energy, water, and crops at a subnational level in the United States while maintaining consistency with broader national and international conditions. This paper describes GCAM-USA's structure, inputs, and outputs, with emphasis on new model features. Four illustrative scenarios encompassing varying socioeconomic and energy system futures are used to explore subnational changes in energy, water, and land use outcomes. We conclude with information about how public users can access the model.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1991-9603
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-15-2533-2022
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-15-2533-2022-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2456725-5
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Impacts of climate change on energy systems in global and regional scenarios
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2020
    In:  Nature Energy Vol. 5, No. 10 ( 2020-08-03), p. 794-802
    Details
    In: Nature Energy, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 5, No. 10 ( 2020-08-03), p. 794-802
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2058-7546
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/s41560-020-0664-z
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2847369-3
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Global urban growth between 1870 and 2100 from integrated high resolution mapped data and urban dynamic modeling
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2021
    In:  Communications Earth & Environment Vol. 2, No. 1 ( 2021-09-29)
    Details
    In: Communications Earth & Environment, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 2, No. 1 ( 2021-09-29)
    Abstract: Long term, global records of urban extent can help evaluate environmental impacts of anthropogenic activities. Remotely sensed observations can provide insights into historical urban dynamics, but only during the satellite era. Here, we develop a 1 km resolution global dataset of annual urban dynamics between 1870 and 2100 using an urban cellular automata model trained on satellite observations of urban extent between 1992 and 2013. Hindcast (1870–1990) and projected (2020–2100) urban dynamics under the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were modeled. We find that global urban growth under SSP5, the fossil-fuelled development scenario, was largest with a greater than 40-fold increase in urban extent since 1870. The high resolution dataset captures grid level urban sprawl over 200 years, which can provide insights into the urbanization life cycle of cities and help assess long-term environmental impacts of urbanization and human–environment interactions at a global scale.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2662-4435
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/s43247-021-00273-w
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3037243-4
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Impacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2021
    In:  Nature Communications Vol. 12, No. 1 ( 2021-03-12)
    Details
    In: Nature Communications, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 12, No. 1 ( 2021-03-12)
    Abstract: Long-term temperature change and variability are expected to have significant impacts on future electric capacity and investments. This study improves upon past studies by accounting for hourly and monthly dynamics of electricity use, long-term socioeconomic drivers, and interactions of the electric sector with rest of the economy for a comprehensive analysis of temperature change impacts on cooling and heating services and their corresponding impact on electric capacity and investments. Using the United States as an example, here we show that under a scenario consistent with a socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2) and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5), mean temperature changes drive increases in annual electricity demands by 0.5-8% across states in 2100. But more importantly, peak temperature changes drive increases in capital investments by 3-22%. Moreover, temperature-induced capital investments are highly sensitive to both long-term socioeconomic assumptions and spatial heterogeneity of fuel prices and capital stock characteristics, which underscores the importance of a comprehensive approach to inform long-term electric sector planning.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2041-1723
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21785-1
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2553671-0
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The future evolution of energy-water-agriculture interconnectivity across the US
    IOP Publishing ; 2021
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 16, No. 6 ( 2021-06-01), p. 065010-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 16, No. 6 ( 2021-06-01), p. 065010-
    Abstract: Energy, water, and agricultural resources across the globe are highly interconnected. This interconnectivity poses science challenges, such as understanding and modeling interconnections, as well as practical challenges, such as efficiently managing interdependent resource systems. Using the US as an example, this study seeks to define and explore how interconnectivity evolves over space and time under a range of influences. Concepts from graph theory and input–output analysis are used to visualize and quantify key intersectoral linkages using two new indices: the ‘Interconnectivity Magnitude Index’ and the ‘Interconnectivity Spread Index’. Using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA), we explore the future evolution of these indices under four scenarios that explore a range of forces, including socioeconomic and technological change. Analysis is conducted at both national and state level spatial scales from 2015 to 2100. Results from a Reference scenario show that resource interconnectivity in the US is primarily driven by water use amongst different sectors, while changes in interconnectivity are driven by a decoupling of the water and electricity systems, as power plants become more water-efficient over time. High population and GDP growth results in relatively more decoupling of sectors, as a larger share of water and energy is used outside of interconnected sector feedback loops. Lower socioeconomic growth results in the opposite trend. Transitioning to a low-carbon economy increases interconnectivity because of the expansion of purpose-grown biomass, which strengthens the connections between water and energy. The results highlight that while some regions may experience similar sectoral stress projections, the composition of the intersectoral connectivity leading to that sectoral stress may call for distinctly different multi-sector co-management strategies. The methodology we introduce here can be applied in diverse geographical and sectoral contexts to enable better understanding of where, when, and how coupling or decoupling between sectors could evolve and be better managed.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac046c
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Climate change impacts on the energy system: a model comparison
    IOP Publishing ; 2022
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 17, No. 3 ( 2022-03-01), p. 034036-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 17, No. 3 ( 2022-03-01), p. 034036-
    Abstract: Increasing renewable energy use is an essential strategy for mitigating climate change. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of renewable energy to climatic conditions means that the energy system’s vulnerability to climate change can also become larger. In this research, we used two integrated assessment models and data from four climate models to analyse climate change impacts on primary energy use at a global and regional scale under a low-level (RCP2.6) and a medium-level (RCP6.0) climate change scenario. The impacts are analysed on the energy system focusing on four renewable sources (wind, solar, hydropower, and biomass). Globally, small climate impacts on renewable primary energy use are found in both models (5% for RCP2.6 and 6% for RCP6.0). These impacts lead to a decrease in the use of fossil sources for most regions, especially for North America and Europe under the RCP60 scenario. Overall, IMAGE and GCAM provide a similar signal impact response for most regions. E.g. in Asia (excluding China and India), climate change induces an increase in wind and hydropower use under the RCP6.0 scenarios; however, for India, a decrease in solar energy use can be expected under both scenarios and models.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac5141
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Future evolution of virtual water trading in the United States electricity sector
    IOP Publishing ; 2021
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 16, No. 12 ( 2021-12-01), p. 124010-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 16, No. 12 ( 2021-12-01), p. 124010-
    Abstract: Future transformations in the electricity sector could entail major shifts in power sector technology mixes and electricity trade, with consequences for the trading of virtual water. Previous virtual water trade studies largely focus on historical timeframes. We explore, for the first time, future—through 2050—virtual water trade driven by electricity trade under a range of future electricity sector transformation scenarios using the United States as an example. Under a business-as-usual scenario, virtual water trading in 2050 decreases by 3% relative to 2015 levels. By contrast, virtual water trading increases respectively by 3%, 26%, and 32%, in scenarios characterized by higher socioeconomic growth, higher potential for transmission expansion, and low-carbon transitions. These increases are driven by electricity generation expansion in the western U.S., resulting in higher virtual water trade to the east. In addition, we find that as electricity generation shifts west, an increased amount of nonrenewable groundwater will be consumed to generate electricity that is supplied to the east. Independent of scenario, the US electricity grid largely relies on virtual water exports from only a few states. Our study highlights the need for integrated and national strategies to manage the water and electric systems.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac3289
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Implications of different income distributions for future residential energy demand in the U.S.
    IOP Publishing ; 2022
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 17, No. 1 ( 2022-01-01), p. 014031-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 17, No. 1 ( 2022-01-01), p. 014031-
    Abstract: Future income distribution will affect energy demand and its interactions with various societal priorities. Most future model simulations assume a single average consumer and thus miss this important demand determinant. We quantify long-term implications of alternative future income distributions for state-level residential energy demand, investment, greenhouse gas, and pollutant emission patterns in the United States (U.S.) by incorporating income quintiles into the residential energy sector of the Global Change Analysis Model with 50-state disaggregation. We find that if the income distribution within each U.S. state becomes more egalitarian than present, what means that the difference on income between the richest and poorest decreases over time, residential energy demand could be 10% (4%–14% across states) higher in 2100. This increase of residential energy demand will directly reduce energy poverty, with a very modest increment on economywide CO 2 emissions (1%–2%). On the other hand, if U.S. states transition to a less equitable income distribution than present, with the difference between richest and poorest increasing over time, residential energy demand could be 19% (12%–26% across states) lower. While this study focuses on a single sector, we conclude that to improve understanding of synergies and tradeoffs across multiple societal goals such as energy access, emissions, and investments, future model simulations should explicitly consider subregional income distribution impacts.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac43df
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Future western U.S. building electricity consumption in response to climate and population drivers: A comparative study of the impact of model structure
    Elsevier BV ; 2020
    In:  Energy Vol. 208 ( 2020-10), p. 118312-
    Details
    In: Energy, Elsevier BV, Vol. 208 ( 2020-10), p. 118312-
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0360-5442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.118312
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2019804-8
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Publisher Correction: Impacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2022
    In:  Nature Communications Vol. 13, No. 1 ( 2022-03-30)
    Details
    In: Nature Communications, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 13, No. 1 ( 2022-03-30)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2041-1723
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29532-w
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2553671-0
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