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  • 1
    In: Atmospheric Science Letters, Wiley, Vol. 21, No. 12 ( 2020-12)
    Abstract: Northern Europe and the UK experienced an exceptionally warm and wet winter in 2019/20, driven by an anomalously positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This positive NAO was well forecast by several seasonal forecast systems, suggesting that this winter the NAO was highly predictable at seasonal lead times. A very strong positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) event was also observed at the start of winter. Here we use composite analysis and model experiments, to show that the IOD was a key driver of the observed positive NAO. Using model experiments that perturb the Indian Ocean initial conditions, two teleconnection pathways of the IOD to the north Atlantic emerge: a tropospheric teleconnection pathway via a Rossby wave train travelling from the Indian Ocean over the Pacific and Atlantic, and a stratospheric teleconnection pathway via the Aleutian region and the stratospheric polar vortex. These pathways are similar to those for the El Niño Southern Oscillation link to the north Atlantic which are already well documented. The anomalies in the north Atlantic jet stream location and strength, and the associated precipitation anomalies over the UK and northern Europe, as simulated by the model IOD experiments, show remarkable agreement with those forecast and observed.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1530-261X , 1530-261X
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2020
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Elsevier BV ; 2004
    In:  Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science Vol. 61, No. 3 ( 2004-11), p. 393-402
    In: Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, Elsevier BV, Vol. 61, No. 3 ( 2004-11), p. 393-402
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0272-7714
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2004
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  • 3
    In: Nature, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 535, No. 7613 ( 2016-7), p. 533-537
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0028-0836 , 1476-4687
    RVK:
    RVK:
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2016
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 1995
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Vol. 100, No. C8 ( 1995-08-15), p. 15977-15997
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 100, No. C8 ( 1995-08-15), p. 15977-15997
    Abstract: A numerical model of the upper ocean is developed to study the dynamics and thermodynamics of the Baie des Chaleurs (Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada). The model has primitive equation dynamics with two active layers embedded with a Niiler‐Kraus (Niller and Kraus, 1977) type mixed layer model at the top. Proper open boundary conditions and forcing functions are constructed. The model is eddy‐permitting, with a horizontal grid spacing of 2×4 km. An Arakawa C grid scheme is used. Forced by observed wind, atmospheric heat fluxes, river runoff, and appropriate remote forcing (in particular, the Gaspé Current, (GC)), the model demonstrates that the mean cyclonic general circulation pattern in the bay is a consequence of the intrusion of the GC. The strength of the circulation depends on the resultant stress of prevailing westerly winds and the opposing GC intrusion. In the mixed layer, atmospheric heat fluxes and horizontal thermal advection play a key role in the thermal balance at the eastern part of the bay. The local mixed layer fluctuations are controlled by wind and GC induced divergence. The entrainment (and its corresponding heat flux) is important at the western part of the bay and changes the mean mixed layer depth on a timescale of more than a week. Varying GC intensifies the flow variations induced by the wind in the bay and improves simulation results as compared with observations.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0148-0227
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 1995
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 1997
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Vol. 102, No. C7 ( 1997-07-15), p. 15567-15581
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 102, No. C7 ( 1997-07-15), p. 15567-15581
    Abstract: A numerical model has been used to study separation/intrusion of an unsteady, baroclinic coastal jet, the Gaspé Current (GC) and its impact on dynamics and thermodynamics of the Baie des Chaleurs (BdC, Gulf St. Lawrence, Canada). The model has 2½ layers with primitive equation dynamics and an embedded bulk mixed layer (ML) model. It is forced with observed atmospheric fluxes, as well as the GC. The simulations show that the variability in the Baie des Chaleurs is controlled by the characteristics of the unsteady GC separation/intrusion. On the basis of the dynamic and vorticity balance analyses, it is found that the separation is related to the adverse pressure gradient force which is induced by the ageostrophic terms in the momentum equations and to local vorticity intensification due to the inertial effect in the flow. The simulations demonstrate characteristics of unsteady separation. The presence of separation in an accelerating current, as well as in a linear current, with strong deceleration when momentum advection is neglected, gives new insight into the mechanisms of unsteady boundary current separation. Unsteady separation or intrusion occurrence depends on the magnitude of the GC transport, as well as its rate and duration of deceleration or acceleration. The GC intrusion generates cyclonic circulation in the BdC. Prevailing westerly winds reduce the cyclonic circulation inside the bay but have little effect on separation/intrusion near the entrance. The GC either intrudes along the coastline (attachment) or after separation (reattachment). Increasing vertical shear of the GC and offshore movement of the GC axis reduces the tendency to separate. The finding of an asymmetric response of GC separation/intrusion to symmetric GC forcing explains the monthly mean features seen in observations taken in the bay.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0148-0227
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 1997
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