In:
Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 12, No. 10 ( 2019-10-15), p. 4375-4385
Abstract:
Abstract. The amount of additional future temperature change following a complete
cessation of CO2 emissions is a measure of the unrealized warming to
which we are committed due to CO2 already emitted to the atmosphere.
This “zero emissions commitment” (ZEC) is also an important quantity when
estimating the remaining carbon budget – a limit on the total amount of
CO2 emissions consistent with limiting global mean temperature at a
particular level. In the recent IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of
1.5 ∘C, the carbon budget framework used to calculate the
remaining carbon budget for 1.5 ∘C included the assumption that
the ZEC due to CO2 emissions is negligible and close to zero. Previous
research has shown significant uncertainty even in the sign of the ZEC. To
close this knowledge gap, we propose the Zero Emissions Commitment Model
Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP), which will quantify the amount of
unrealized temperature change that occurs after CO2 emissions cease and
investigate the geophysical drivers behind this climate response.
Quantitative information on ZEC is a key gap in our knowledge, and one that
will not be addressed by currently planned CMIP6 simulations, yet it is
crucial for verifying whether carbon budgets need to be adjusted to account
for any unrealized temperature change resulting from past CO2
emissions. We request only one top-priority simulation from comprehensive
general circulation Earth system models (ESMs) and Earth system models of
intermediate complexity (EMICs) – a branch from the 1 % CO2 run with
CO2 emissions set to zero at the point of 1000 PgC of total CO2
emissions in the simulation – with the possibility for additional
simulations, if resources allow. ZECMIP is part of CMIP6, under joint
sponsorship by C4MIP and CDRMIP, with associated experiment names to enable
data submissions to the Earth System Grid Federation. All data will be published
and made freely available.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
1991-9603
DOI:
10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019
DOI:
10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019-corrigendum
Language:
English
Publisher:
Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
2019
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2456725-5
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