In:
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, The Royal Society, Vol. 376, No. 2119 ( 2018-05-13), p. 20160457-
Abstract:
We explore the feasibility of limiting global warming to 1.5°C without overshoot and without the deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. For this purpose, we perform a sensitivity analysis of four generic emissions reduction measures to identify a lower bound on future CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes. Final energy demand reductions and electrification of energy end uses as well as decarbonization of electricity and non-electric energy supply are all considered. We find the lower bound of cumulative fossil fuel and industry CO 2 emissions to be 570 GtCO 2 for the period 2016–2100, around 250 GtCO 2 lower than the lower end of available 1.5°C mitigation pathways generated with integrated assessment models. Estimates of 1.5°C-consistent CO 2 budgets are highly uncertain and range between 100 and 900 GtCO 2 from 2016 onwards. Based on our sensitivity analysis, limiting warming to 1.5°C will require CDR or terrestrial net carbon uptake if 1.5°C-consistent budgets are smaller than 650 GtCO 2 . The earlier CDR is deployed, the more it neutralizes post-2020 emissions rather than producing net negative emissions. Nevertheless, if the 1.5°C budget is smaller than 550 GtCO 2 , temporary overshoot of the 1.5°C limit becomes unavoidable if CDR cannot be ramped up faster than to 4 GtCO 2 in 2040 and 10 GtCO 2 in 2050. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
1364-503X
,
1471-2962
DOI:
10.1098/rsta.2016.0457
Language:
English
Publisher:
The Royal Society
Publication Date:
2018
detail.hit.zdb_id:
208381-4
detail.hit.zdb_id:
1462626-3
SSG:
11
SSG:
5,1
SSG:
5,21
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