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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Injecting epidemiology into population viability analysis: avian cholera transmission dynamics at an arctic seabird colony
    Wiley ; 2016
    In:  Journal of Animal Ecology Vol. 85, No. 6 ( 2016-11), p. 1481-1490
    Details
    In: Journal of Animal Ecology, Wiley, Vol. 85, No. 6 ( 2016-11), p. 1481-1490
    Abstract: Infectious diseases have the potential to spread rapidly and cause high mortality within populations of immunologically naïve hosts. The recent appearance of avian cholera, a highly virulent disease of birds caused by the bacterium Pasteurella multocida , at remote Arctic seabird colonies is an emerging conservation concern. Determining disease risk to population viability requires a quantitative understanding of transmission potential and the factors that regulate epidemic persistence. Estimates of the basic ( R 0 ) and real‐time ( R t ) reproductive number are critical in this regard – enumerating the number of secondary infections caused by each primary infection in a newly invaded host population and the decline in transmission rate as susceptible individuals are removed via mortality or immunized recovery. Here, we use data collected at a closely monitored common eider ( Somateria mollissima ) breeding colony located in the Canadian Arctic to examine transmission and host population dynamics. Specifically, we infer epidemic curves from daily mortality observations and use a likelihood‐based procedure to estimate changes in the reproductive number over a series of annual outbreaks. These data are interpreted in relation to concurrent changes in host numbers to assess local extinction risk. Consistent with expectations for a novel pathogen invasion, case incidence increased exponentially during the initial wave of exposure ( R 0  = 2·5; generation time  = 6·5 days ± 1·1 SD). Disease conditions gradually abated, but only after several years of smouldering infection ( R t  ≈ 1). In total, 6194 eider deaths were recorded during outbreaks spanning eight consecutive breeding seasons. Breeding pair abundance declined by 56% from the pre‐outbreak peak; however, a robust population of 〉 4000 pairs remained intact upon epidemic fade‐out. Overall, outbreak patterns were consistent with herd immunity acting as a mitigating factor governing in the extent and duration of mortality. Disease mortality is frequently modelled as a form of stochastic catastrophe in wildlife population assessments, whereas our approach gives shape to the functional response between transmission and host population dynamics. We conclude that increased emphasis on integrating epidemiological and population processes is essential to predicting the conservation impact of emerging infectious diseases in wildlife.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0021-8790 , 1365-2656
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1111/jane.2016.85.issue-6
    DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12585
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2006616-8
    SSG: 12
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Herd immunity drives the epidemic fadeout of avian cholera in Arctic-nesting seabirds
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2021
    In:  Scientific Reports Vol. 11, No. 1 ( 2021-01-13)
    Details
    In: Scientific Reports, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 11, No. 1 ( 2021-01-13)
    Abstract: Avian cholera, caused by the bacterium Pasteurella multocida , is a common and important infectious disease of wild birds in North America. Between 2005 and 2012, avian cholera caused annual mortality of widely varying magnitudes in Northern common eiders ( Somateria mollissima borealis ) breeding at the largest colony in the Canadian Arctic, Mitivik Island, Nunavut. Although herd immunity, in which a large proportion of the population acquires immunity to the disease, has been suggested to play a role in epidemic fadeout, immunological studies exploring this hypothesis have been missing. We investigated the role of three potential drivers of fadeout of avian cholera in eiders, including immunity, prevalence of infection, and colony size. Each potential driver was examined in relation to the annual real-time reproductive number (R t ) of P. multocida , previously calculated for eiders at Mitivik Island. Each year, colony size was estimated and eiders were closely monitored, and evaluated for infection and serological status. We demonstrate that acquired immunity approximated using antibody titers to P. multocida in both sexes was likely a key driver for the epidemic fadeout. This study exemplifies the importance of herd immunity in influencing the dynamics and fadeout of epidemics in a wildlife population.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2045-2322
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-79888-6
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2615211-3
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Feather corticosterone reveals effect of moulting conditions in the autumn on subsequent reproductive output and survival in an Arctic migratory bird
    The Royal Society ; 2015
    In:  Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Vol. 282, No. 1800 ( 2015-02-07), p. 20142085-
    Details
    In: Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, The Royal Society, Vol. 282, No. 1800 ( 2015-02-07), p. 20142085-
    Abstract: For birds, unpredictable environments during the energetically stressful times of moulting and breeding are expected to have negative fitness effects. Detecting those effects however, might be difficult if individuals modulate their physiology and/or behaviours in ways to minimize short-term fitness costs. Corticosterone in feathers (CORTf) is thought to provide information on total baseline and stress-induced CORT levels at moulting and is an integrated measure of hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal activity during the time feathers are grown. We predicted that CORTf levels in northern common eider females would relate to subsequent body condition, reproductive success and survival, in a population of eiders nesting in the eastern Canadian Arctic during a capricious period marked by annual avian cholera outbreaks. We collected CORTf data from feathers grown during previous moult in autumn and data on phenology of subsequent reproduction and survival for 242 eider females over 5 years. Using path analyses, we detected a direct relationship between CORTf and arrival date and body condition the following year. CORTf also had negative indirect relationships with both eider reproductive success and survival of eiders during an avian cholera outbreak. This indirect effect was dramatic with a reduction of approximately 30% in subsequent survival of eiders during an avian cholera outbreak when mean CORTf increased by 1 standard deviation. This study highlights the importance of events or processes occurring during moult on subsequent expression of life-history traits and relation to individual fitness, and shows that information from non-destructive sampling of individuals can track carry-over effects across seasons.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0962-8452 , 1471-2954
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2014.2085
    Language: English
    Publisher: The Royal Society
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1460975-7
    SSG: 12
    SSG: 25
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