In:
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, The Royal Society, Vol. 367, No. 1886 ( 2009-01-13), p. 3-17
Abstract:
Climate predictions produced by numerical climate models, often referred to as general circulation models (GCMs), suggest that by the end of the twenty-first century global mean annual surface air temperatures will increase by 1.1–6.4°C. Trace gas records from ice cores indicate that atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 are already higher than at any time during the last 650 000 years. In the next 50 years, atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are expected to reach a level not encountered since an epoch of time known as the Pliocene. Uniformitarianism is a key principle of geological science, but can the past also be a guide to the future? To what extent does an examination of the Pliocene geological record enable us to successfully understand and interpret this guide? How reliable are the ‘retrodictions’ of Pliocene climates produced by GCMs and what does this tell us about the accuracy of model predictions for the future? These questions provide the scientific rationale for this Theme Issue.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
1364-503X
,
1471-2962
DOI:
10.1098/rsta.2008.0205
Language:
English
Publisher:
The Royal Society
Publication Date:
2009
detail.hit.zdb_id:
208381-4
detail.hit.zdb_id:
1462626-3
SSG:
11
SSG:
5,1
SSG:
5,21
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