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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Greenland Sea sea ice variability over 1979–2007 and its link to the surface atmosphere
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2011
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research Vol. 116, No. C10 ( 2011-10-28)
    Details
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 116, No. C10 ( 2011-10-28)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0148-0227
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2011JC006960
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2011
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094104-0
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016813-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016810-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2403298-0
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016800-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 161666-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 161667-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2969341-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 161665-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094268-8
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 710256-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016804-4
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094181-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094219-6
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  • 2
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    Fluctuations in the extent of mangroves driven by multi‐decadal changes in North Atlantic waves
    Wiley ; 2015
    In:  Journal of Biogeography Vol. 42, No. 11 ( 2015-11), p. 2209-2219
    Details
    In: Journal of Biogeography, Wiley, Vol. 42, No. 11 ( 2015-11), p. 2209-2219
    Abstract: The goal of the study was to quantify changes in the extent of mangroves since the mid‐twentieth century and to test the hypothesis that these changes are driven by ocean waves. Location The pristine 300‐km‐long coast of French Guiana, South America. Methods We produced time series of mangrove maps using archival remote sensing images. We retrieved significant wave heights ( H S ), mean wave periods ( T M ) and mean wave directions (θ M ) from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis products. We used complex empirical orthogonal function ( CEOF ) decomposition to extract the main mode of mangrove surface area ( M S ) variability and singular value decomposition ( SVD ) to test the relationships between M S and H S , T M and θ M . Results The leading mode of variability extracted from the CEOF decomposition of M S captured approximately 78% of the total auto‐covariance and revealed multi‐decadal fluctuations in M S that were on the order of 10,000 ha. The SVD results indicated that the multi‐decadal fluctuation in M S cross‐covaried with H S , T M and θ M over the North Atlantic sector, particularly in the region immediately off the French Guiana coast that is remotely forced by the North Atlantic Oscillation ( NAO ) during the winter season. Main conclusions We provide evidence based on linear statistics that variations in the extent of mangroves are driven by large‐scale, low‐frequency changes in North Atlantic waves that are related to the NAO . Such a relationship is hypothesized to operate through wave pounding, which alters the mud substrates on which mangroves thrive and which varies with the phase of the NAO . In addition to long‐term trends due to anthropogenic climate change, our results stress the importance of studying low‐frequency modes of climate variability to understand changes in the extent of mangroves.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0305-0270 , 1365-2699
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1111/jbi.2015.42.issue-11
    DOI: 10.1111/jbi.12580
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2015
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 188963-1
    SSG: 12
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  • 3
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    Atmospheric dynamics over northwest Africa and linkages with Sahelian rainfall
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2006
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 33, No. 14 ( 2006)
    Details
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 33, No. 14 ( 2006)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2006GL026695
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2006
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    SSG: 16,13
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  • 4
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    Investigating the Impact of Reemerging Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on the Winter Atmospheric Circulation over the North Atlantic
    American Meteorological Society ; 2007
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 20, No. 14 ( 2007-07-15), p. 3510-3526
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 20, No. 14 ( 2007-07-15), p. 3510-3526
    Abstract: Extratropical SSTs can be influenced by the “reemergence mechanism,” whereby thermal anomalies in the deep winter mixed layer persist at depth through summer and are then reentrained into the mixed layer in the following winter. The impact of reemergence in the North Atlantic Ocean (NAO) upon the climate system is investigated using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed layer ocean/thermodynamic sea ice model. The dominant pattern of thermal anomalies below the mixed layer in summer in a 150-yr control integration is associated with the North Atlantic SST tripole forced by the NAO in the previous winter as indicated by singular value decomposition (SVD). To isolate the reemerging signal, two additional 60-member ensemble experiments were conducted in which temperature anomalies below 40 m obtained from the SVD analysis are added to or subtracted from the control integration. The reemerging signal, given by the mean difference between the two 60-member ensembles, causes the SST anomaly tripole to recur, beginning in fall, amplifying through January, and persisting through the following spring. The atmospheric response to these SST anomalies resembles the circulation that created them the previous winter but with reduced amplitude (10–20 m at 500 mb per °C), modestly enhancing the winter-to-winter persistence of the NAO. Changes in the transient eddies and their interactions with the mean flow contribute to the large-scale equivalent barotropic response throughout the troposphere. The latter can also be attributed to the change in occurrence of intrinsic weather regimes.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI4202.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2007
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  • 5
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    Online Resource
    Clarifying the Relation between AMOC and Thermal Wind: Application to the Centennial Variability in a Coupled Climate Model
    American Meteorological Society ; 2021
    In:  Journal of Physical Oceanography Vol. 51, No. 2 ( 2021-02), p. 343-364
    Details
    In: Journal of Physical Oceanography, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 51, No. 2 ( 2021-02), p. 343-364
    Abstract: This work aims to clarify the relation between the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the thermal wind. We derive a new and generic dynamical AMOC decomposition that expresses the thermal wind transport as a simple vertical integral function of eastern minus western boundary densities. This allows us to express density anomalies at any depth as a geostrophic transport in Sverdrups (1 Sv ≡ 10 6 m 3 s −1 ) per meter and to predict that density anomalies around the depth of maximum overturning induce most AMOC transport. We then apply this formalism to identify the dynamical drivers of the centennial AMOC variability in the CNRM-CM6 climate model. The dynamical reconstruction and specifically the thermal wind component explain over 80% of the low-frequency AMOC variance at all latitudes, which is therefore almost exclusively driven by density anomalies at both zonal boundaries. This transport variability is dominated by density anomalies between depths of 500 and 1500 m, in agreement with theoretical predictions. At those depths, southward-propagating western boundary temperature anomalies induce the centennial geostrophic AMOC transport variability in the North Atlantic. They are originated along the western boundary of the subpolar gyre through the Labrador Sea deep convection and the Davis Strait overflow.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0022-3670 , 1520-0485
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JPO-D-19-0284.1
    DOI: 10.1175/jpo-d-19-0284.s1
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2021
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 184162-2
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  • 6
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    Using Data and Intermediate Coupled Models for Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasts
    American Meteorological Society ; 2000
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 128, No. 9 ( 2000-09), p. 3025-3049
    Details
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 128, No. 9 ( 2000-09), p. 3025-3049
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-0644 , 1520-0493
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128〈3025:UDAICM〉2.0.CO;2
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2000
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    SSG: 14
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  • 7
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    Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches
    American Meteorological Society ; 2014
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 95, No. 2 ( 2014-02-01), p. 243-267
    Details
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 95, No. 2 ( 2014-02-01), p. 243-267
    Abstract: This paper provides an update on research in the relatively new and fast-moving field of decadal climate prediction, and addresses the use of decadal climate predictions not only for potential users of such information but also for improving our understanding of processes in the climate system. External forcing influences the predictions throughout, but their contributions to predictive skill become dominant after most of the improved skill from initialization with observations vanishes after about 6–9 years. Recent multimodel results suggest that there is relatively more decadal predictive skill in the North Atlantic, western Pacific, and Indian Oceans than in other regions of the world oceans. Aspects of decadal variability of SSTs, like the mid-1970s shift in the Pacific, the mid-1990s shift in the northern North Atlantic and western Pacific, and the early-2000s hiatus, are better represented in initialized hindcasts compared to uninitialized simulations. There is evidence of higher skill in initialized multimodel ensemble decadal hindcasts than in single model results, with multimodel initialized predictions for near-term climate showing somewhat less global warming than uninitialized simulations. Some decadal hindcasts have shown statistically reliable predictions of surface temperature over various land and ocean regions for lead times of up to 6–9 years, but this needs to be investigated in a wider set of models. As in the early days of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction, improvements to models will reduce the need for bias adjustment, and increase the reliability, and thus usefulness, of decadal climate predictions in the future.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0477 , 0003-0007
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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  • 8
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    Teleconnection Processes Linking the Intensity of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability to the Climate Impacts over Europe in Boreal Winter
    American Meteorological Society ; 2020
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 33, No. 7 ( 2020-04-01), p. 2681-2700
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 33, No. 7 ( 2020-04-01), p. 2681-2700
    Abstract: The response of the European climate to the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) remains difficult to isolate in observations because of the presence of strong internal variability and anthropogenically forced signals. Using model sensitivity experiments proposed within the CMIP6/Decadal Climate Prediction Project Component C (DCPP-C) framework, the wintertime AMV–Europe teleconnection is here investigated in large ensembles of pacemaker-type simulations conducted with the CNRM-CM5 global circulation model. To evaluate the sensitivity of the model response to the AMV amplitude, twin experiments with the AMV forcing pattern multiplied by 2 and 3 (2xAMV and 3xAMV, respectively) are performed in complement to the reference ensemble (1xAMV). Based on a flow analog method, we show that the AMV-forced atmospheric circulation tends to cool down the European continent, whereas the residual signal, mostly including thermodynamical processes, contributes to warming. In 1xAMV, both terms cancel each other, explaining the overall weak AMV-forced atmospheric signal. In 2xAMV and 3xAMV, the thermodynamical contribution overcomes the dynamical cooling and is responsible for milder and wetter conditions found at large scale over Europe. The thermodynamical term includes the advection of warmer and more humid oceanic air penetrating inland and the modification of surface radiative fluxes linked to both altered cloudiness and snow-cover reduction acting as a positive feedback with the AMV amplitude. The dynamical anomalous circulation combines 1) a remote response to enhanced diabatic heating acting as a Rossby wave source in the western tropical Atlantic and 2) a local response associated with warmer SST over the subpolar gyre favoring an anomalous high. The extratropical influence is reinforced by polar amplification due to sea ice melting in all the subarctic seas. The weight between the tropical–extratropical processes and associated feedbacks is speculated to partly explain the nonlinear sensibility of the response to the AMV forcing amplitude, challenging thus the use of the so-called pattern-scaling technique to evaluate teleconnectivity and related impacts associated with decadal variability.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0428.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2020
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  • 9
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    Extratropical Atmosphere–Ocean Variability in CCSM3
    American Meteorological Society ; 2006
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 19, No. 11 ( 2006-06-01), p. 2496-2525
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 19, No. 11 ( 2006-06-01), p. 2496-2525
    Abstract: Extratropical atmosphere–ocean variability over the Northern Hemisphere of the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) is examined and compared to observations. Results are presented for an extended control integration with a horizontal resolution of T85 (1.4°) for the atmosphere and land and ∼1° for the ocean and sea ice. Several atmospheric phenomena are investigated including storms, clouds, and patterns of variability, and their relationship to both tropical and extratropical SST anomalies. The mean storm track, the leading modes of storm track variability, and the relationship of the latter to tropical and midlatitude sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are fairly well simulated in CCSM3. The positive correlations between extratropical SST and low-cloud anomalies in summer are reproduced by the model, but there are clear biases in the relationship between clouds and the near-surface meridional wind. The model accurately represents the circulation anomalies associated with the jet stream waveguide, the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern, and fluctuations associated with the Aleutian low, including how the latter two features are influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). CCSM3 has a reasonable depiction of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), but it is not strongly connected to tropical Pacific SSTs as found in nature. There are biases in the position of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and other Atlantic regimes, as the mean Icelandic low in CCSM3 is stronger and displaced southeastward relative to observations. Extratropical ocean processes in CCSM3, including upper-ocean mixing, thermocline variability, and extratropical to tropical flow within the thermocline, also influence climate variability. As in observations, the model includes the “reemergence mechanism” where seasonal variability in mixed layer depth (MLD) allows SST anomalies to recur in consecutive winters without persisting through the intervening summer. Remote wind stress curl anomalies drive thermocline variability in the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension region, which influences SST, surface heat flux anomalies, and the local wind field. The interior ocean pathways connecting the subtropics to the equator in both the Pacific and Atlantic are less pronounced in CCSM3 than in nature or in ocean-only simulations forced by observed atmospheric conditions, and the flow from the subtropical North Atlantic does not appear to reach the equator through either the western boundary or interior pathways.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3743.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2006
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 10
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    The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2016
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development Vol. 9, No. 10 ( 2016-10-25), p. 3751-3777
    Details
    In: Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 9, No. 10 ( 2016-10-25), p. 3751-3777
    Abstract: Abstract. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) is a coordinated multi-model investigation into decadal climate prediction, predictability, and variability. The DCPP makes use of past experience in simulating and predicting decadal variability and forced climate change gained from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and elsewhere. It builds on recent improvements in models, in the reanalysis of climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction (Kushnir et al., 2016). The DCPP consists of three components. Component A comprises the production and analysis of an extensive archive of retrospective forecasts to be used to assess and understand historical decadal prediction skill, as a basis for improvements in all aspects of end-to-end decadal prediction, and as a basis for forecasting on annual to decadal timescales. Component B undertakes ongoing production, analysis and dissemination of experimental quasi-real-time multi-model forecasts as a basis for potential operational forecast production. Component C involves the organization and coordination of case studies of particular climate shifts and variations, both natural and naturally forced (e.g. the “hiatus”, volcanoes), including the study of the mechanisms that determine these behaviours. Groups are invited to participate in as many or as few of the components of the DCPP, each of which are separately prioritized, as are of interest to them.The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and society.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1991-9603
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-9-3751-2016
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2456725-5
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