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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Low-frequency variability in the Gulf of Alaska from coarse and eddy-permitting ocean models
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2009
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research Vol. 114, No. C1 ( 2009-01-30)
    Details
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 114, No. C1 ( 2009-01-30)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0148-0227
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2008JC004983
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2009
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Relationship between Precipitation in the Great Plains of the United States and Global SSTs: Insights from the IPCC AR4 Models
    American Meteorological Society ; 2010
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 23, No. 11 ( 2010-06-01), p. 2941-2958
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 23, No. 11 ( 2010-06-01), p. 2941-2958
    Abstract: Multicentury preindustrial control simulations from six of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) models are used to examine the relationship between low-frequency precipitation variations in the Great Plains (GP) region of the United States and global sea surface temperatures (SSTs). This study builds on previous work performed with atmospheric models forced by observed SSTs during the twentieth century and extends it to a coupled model context and longer time series. The climate models used in this study reproduce the precipitation climatology over the United States reasonably well, with maximum precipitation occurring in early summer, as observed. The modeled precipitation time series exhibit negative “decadal” anomalies, identified using a 5-yr running mean, of amplitude comparable to that of the twentieth-century droughts. It is found that low-frequency anomalies over the GP are part of a large-scale pattern of precipitation variations, characterized by anomalies of the same sign as in the GP region over Europe and southern South America and anomalies of opposite sign over northern South America, India, and Australia. The large-scale pattern of the precipitation anomalies is associated with global-scale atmospheric circulation changes; during wet periods in the GP, geopotential heights are raised in the tropics and high latitudes and lowered in the midlatitudes in most models, with the midlatitude jets displaced toward the equator in both hemispheres. Statistically significant correlations are found between the decadal precipitation anomalies in the GP region and tropical Pacific SSTs in all the models. The influence of other oceans (Indian and tropical and North Atlantic), which previous studies have identified as potentially important, appears to be model dependent.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI3291.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2010
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Low-Frequency Pycnocline Variability in the Northeast Pacific
    American Meteorological Society ; 2005
    In:  Journal of Physical Oceanography Vol. 35, No. 8 ( 2005-08-01), p. 1403-1420
    Details
    In: Journal of Physical Oceanography, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 35, No. 8 ( 2005-08-01), p. 1403-1420
    Abstract: The output from an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) driven by observed surface forcing is used in conjunction with simpler dynamical models to examine the physical mechanisms responsible for interannual to interdecadal pycnocline variability in the northeast Pacific Ocean during 1958–97, a period that includes the 1976–77 climate shift. After 1977 the pycnocline deepened in a broad band along the coast and shoaled in the central part of the Gulf of Alaska. The changes in pycnocline depth diagnosed from the model are in agreement with the pycnocline depth changes observed at two ocean stations in different areas of the Gulf of Alaska. A simple Ekman pumping model with linear damping explains a large fraction of pycnocline variability in the OGCM. The fit of the simple model to the OGCM is maximized in the central part of the Gulf of Alaska, where the pycnocline variability produced by the simple model can account for ∼70%–90% of the pycnocline depth variance in the OGCM. Evidence of westward-propagating Rossby waves is found in the OGCM, but they are not the dominant signal. On the contrary, large-scale pycnocline depth anomalies have primarily a standing character, thus explaining the success of the local Ekman pumping model. The agreement between the Ekman pumping model and OGCM deteriorates in a large band along the coast, where propagating disturbances within the pycnocline, due to either mean flow advection or boundary waves, appear to play an important role in pycnocline variability. Coastal propagation of pycnocline depth anomalies is especially relevant in the western part of the Gulf of Alaska, where local Ekman pumping-induced changes are anticorrelated with the OGCM pycnocline depth variations. The pycnocline depth changes associated with the 1976–77 climate regime shift do not seem to be consistent with Sverdrup dynamics, raising questions about the nature of the adjustment of the Alaska Gyre to low-frequency wind stress variability.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0485 , 0022-3670
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JPO2757.1
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2005
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  • 4
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    Online Resource
    Anatomy and Decadal Evolution of the Pacific Subtropical–Tropical Cells (STCs)*
    American Meteorological Society ; 2005
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 18, No. 18 ( 2005-09-15), p. 3739-3758
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 18, No. 18 ( 2005-09-15), p. 3739-3758
    Abstract: The output from an ocean general circulation model driven by observed surface forcing (1958–97) is used to examine the evolution and relative timing of the different branches of the Pacific Subtropical–Tropical Cells (STCs) at both interannual and decadal time scales, with emphasis on the 1976–77 climate shift. The STCs consist of equatorward pycnocline transports in the ocean interior and in the western boundary current, equatorial upwelling, and poleward flow in the surface Ekman layer. The interior pycnocline transports exhibit a decreasing trend after the mid-1970s, in agreement with observational transport estimates, and are largely anticorrelated with both the Ekman transports and the boundary current transports at the same latitudes. The boundary current changes tend to compensate for the interior changes at both interannual and decadal time scales. The meridional transport convergence across 9°S and 9°N as well as the equatorial upwelling are strongly correlated with the changes in sea surface temperature (SST) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. However, meridional transport variations do not occur simultaneously at each longitude, so that to understand the phase relationship between transport and SST variations it is important to consider the baroclinic ocean adjustment through westward-propagating Rossby waves. The anticorrelation between boundary current changes and interior transport changes can also be understood in terms of the baroclinic adjustment process. In this simulation, the pycnocline transport variations appear to be primarily confined within the Tropics, with maxima around 10°S and 13°N, and related to the local wind forcing; a somewhat different perspective from previous studies that have emphasized the role of wind variations in the subtropics.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3496.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2005
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  • 5
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    Bottom marine heatwaves along the continental shelves of North America
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2023
    In:  Nature Communications Vol. 14, No. 1 ( 2023-03-13)
    Details
    In: Nature Communications, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 14, No. 1 ( 2023-03-13)
    Abstract: Recently, there has been substantial effort to understand the fundamental characteristics of warm ocean temperature extremes—known as marine heatwaves (MHWs). However, MHW research has primarily focused on the surface signature of these events. While surface MHWs (SMHW) can have dramatic impacts on marine ecosystems, extreme warming along the seafloor can also have significant biological outcomes. In this study, we use a high-resolution (~8 km) ocean reanalysis to broadly assess bottom marine heatwaves (BMHW) along the continental shelves of North America. We find that BMHW intensity and duration varies strongly with bottom depth, with typical intensities ranging from ~0.5 °C–3 °C. Further, BMHWs can be more intense and persist longer than SMHWs. While BMHWs and SMHWs often co-occur, BMHWs can also exist without a SMHW. Deeper regions in which the mixed layer does not typically reach the seafloor exhibit less synchronicity between BMHWs and SMHWs.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2041-1723
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36567-0
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2023
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  • 6
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    An increase in marine heatwaves without significant changes in surface ocean temperature variability
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2022
    In:  Nature Communications Vol. 13, No. 1 ( 2022-12-01)
    Details
    In: Nature Communications, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 13, No. 1 ( 2022-12-01)
    Abstract: Marine heatwaves (MHWs)—extremely warm, persistent sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies causing substantial ecological and economic consequences—have increased worldwide in recent decades. Concurrent increases in global temperatures suggest that climate change impacted MHW occurrences, beyond random changes arising from natural internal variability. Moreover, the long-term SST warming trend was not constant but instead had more rapid warming in recent decades. Here we show that this nonlinear trend can—on its own—appear to increase SST variance and hence MHW frequency. Using a Linear Inverse Model to separate climate change contributions to SST means and internal variability, both in observations and CMIP6 historical simulations, we find that most MHW increases resulted from regional mean climate trends that alone increased the probability of SSTs exceeding a MHW threshold. Our results suggest the need to carefully attribute global warming-induced changes in climate extremes, which may not always reflect underlying changes in variability.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2041-1723
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34934-x
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2022
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  • 7
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    Online Resource
    Seasonal-to-interannual prediction of North American coastal marine ecosystems: Forecast methods, mechanisms of predictability, and priority developments
    Elsevier BV ; 2020
    In:  Progress in Oceanography Vol. 183 ( 2020-04), p. 102307-
    Details
    In: Progress in Oceanography, Elsevier BV, Vol. 183 ( 2020-04), p. 102307-
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0079-6611
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2020.102307
    RVK:
    RB 10402
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2020
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    SSG: 21,3
    SSG: 14
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Interdecadal changes in mesoscale eddy variance in the Gulf of Alaska circulation: Possible implications for the Steller sea lion decline
    Informa UK Limited ; 2005
    In:  Atmosphere-Ocean Vol. 43, No. 3 ( 2005-09), p. 231-240
    Details
    In: Atmosphere-Ocean, Informa UK Limited, Vol. 43, No. 3 ( 2005-09), p. 231-240
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0705-5900 , 1480-9214
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.3137/ao.430303
    Language: English
    Publisher: Informa UK Limited
    Publication Date: 2005
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    SSG: 16,13
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  • 9
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    ENSO and Pacific Decadal Variability in the Community Climate System Model Version 4
    American Meteorological Society ; 2012
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 25, No. 8 ( 2012-04-15), p. 2622-2651
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 25, No. 8 ( 2012-04-15), p. 2622-2651
    Abstract: This study presents an overview of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and Pacific decadal variability (PDV) simulated in a multicentury preindustrial control integration of the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) at nominal 1° latitude–longitude resolution. Several aspects of ENSO are improved in CCSM4 compared to its predecessor CCSM3, including the lengthened period (3–6 yr), the larger range of amplitude and frequency of events, and the longer duration of La Niña compared to El Niño. However, the overall magnitude of ENSO in CCSM4 is overestimated by ~30%. The simulated ENSO exhibits characteristics consistent with the delayed/recharge oscillator paradigm, including correspondence between the lengthened period and increased latitudinal width of the anomalous equatorial zonal wind stress. Global seasonal atmospheric teleconnections with accompanying impacts on precipitation and temperature are generally well simulated, although the wintertime deepening of the Aleutian low erroneously persists into spring. The vertical structure of the upper-ocean temperature response to ENSO in the north and south Pacific displays a realistic seasonal evolution, with notable asymmetries between warm and cold events. The model shows evidence of atmospheric circulation precursors over the North Pacific associated with the “seasonal footprinting mechanism,” similar to observations. Simulated PDV exhibits a significant spectral peak around 15 yr, with generally realistic spatial pattern and magnitude. However, PDV linkages between the tropics and extratropics are weaker than observed.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00301.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2012
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  • 10
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    Enhanced upper ocean stratification with climate change in the CMIP3 models : CLIMATE CHANGE OF OCEAN STRATIFICATION
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2012
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Vol. 117, No. C4 ( 2012-04), p. n/a-n/a
    Details
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 117, No. C4 ( 2012-04), p. n/a-n/a
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0148-0227
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2011JC007409
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2012
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