Abstract: —J. BLUNDEN, T. BOYER, AND E. BARTOW-GILLIES Earth’s global climate system is vast, complex, and intricately interrelated. Many areas are influenced by global-scale phenomena, including the “triple dip” La Niña conditions that prevailed in the eastern Pacific Ocean nearly continuously from mid-2020 through all of 2022; by regional phenomena such as the positive winter and summer North Atlantic Oscillation that impacted weather in parts the Northern Hemisphere and the negative Indian Ocean dipole that impacted weather in parts of the Southern Hemisphere; and by more localized systems such as high-pressure heat domes that caused extreme heat in different areas of the world. Underlying all these natural short-term variabilities are long-term climate trends due to continuous increases since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the atmospheric concentrations of Earth’s major greenhouse gases. In 2022, the annual global average carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere rose to 417.1±0.1 ppm, which is 50% greater than the pre-industrial level. Global mean tropospheric methane abundance was 165% higher than its pre-industrial level, and nitrous oxide was 24% higher. All three gases set new record-high atmospheric concentration levels in 2022. Sea-surface temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific characteristic of La Niña and attendant atmospheric patterns tend to mitigate atmospheric heat gain at the global scale, but the annual global surface temperature across land and oceans was still among the six highest in records dating as far back as the mid-1800s. It was the warmest La Niña year on record. Many areas observed record or near-record heat. Europe as a whole observed its second-warmest year on record, with sixteen individual countries observing record warmth at the national scale. Records were shattered across the continent during the summer months as heatwaves plagued the region. On 18 July, 104 stations in France broke their all-time records. One day later, England recorded a temperature of 40°C for the first time ever. China experienced its second-warmest year and warmest summer on record. In the Southern Hemisphere, the average temperature across New Zealand reached a record high for the second year in a row. While Australia’s annual temperature was slightly below the 1991–2020 average, Onslow Airport in Western Australia reached 50.7°C on 13 January, equaling Australia's highest temperature on record. While fewer in number and locations than record-high temperatures, record cold was also observed during the year. Southern Africa had its coldest August on record, with minimum temperatures as much as 5°C below normal over Angola, western Zambia, and northern Namibia. Cold outbreaks in the first half of December led to many record-low daily minimum temperature records in eastern Australia. The effects of rising temperatures and extreme heat were apparent across the Northern Hemisphere, where snow-cover extent by June 2022 was the third smallest in the 56-year record, and the seasonal duration of lake ice cover was the fourth shortest since 1980. More frequent and intense heatwaves contributed to the second-greatest average mass balance loss for Alpine glaciers around the world since the start of the record in 1970. Glaciers in the Swiss Alps lost a record 6% of their volume. In South America, the combination of drought and heat left many central Andean glaciers snow free by mid-summer in early 2022; glacial ice has a much lower albedo than snow, leading to accelerated heating of the glacier. Across the global cryosphere, permafrost temperatures continued to reach record highs at many high-latitude and mountain locations. In the high northern latitudes, the annual surface-air temperature across the Arctic was the fifth highest in the 123-year record. The seasonal Arctic minimum sea-ice extent, typically reached in September, was the 11th-smallest in the 43-year record; however, the amount of multiyear ice—ice that survives at least one summer melt season—remaining in the Arctic continued to decline. Since 2012, the Arctic has been nearly devoid of ice more than four years old. In Antarctica, an unusually large amount of snow and ice fell over the continent in 2022 due to several landfalling atmospheric rivers, which contributed to the highest annual surface mass balance, 15% to 16% above the 1991–2020 normal, since the start of two reanalyses records dating to 1980. It was the second-warmest year on record for all five of the long-term staffed weather stations on the Antarctic Peninsula. In East Antarctica, a heatwave event led to a new all-time record-high temperature of −9.4°C—44°C above the March average—on 18 March at Dome C. This was followed by the collapse of the critically unstable Conger Ice Shelf. More than 100 daily low sea-ice extent and sea-ice area records were set in 2022, including two new all-time annual record lows in net sea-ice extent and area in February. Across the world’s oceans, global mean sea level was record high for the 11th consecutive year, reaching 101.2 mm above the 1993 average when satellite altimetry measurements began, an increase of 3.3±0.7 over 2021. Globally-averaged ocean heat content was also record high in 2022, while the global sea-surface temperature was the sixth highest on record, equal with 2018. Approximately 58% of the ocean surface experienced at least one marine heatwave in 2022. In the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand’s longest continuous marine heatwave was recorded. A total of 85 named tropical storms were observed during the Northern and Southern Hemisphere storm seasons, close to the 1991–2020 average of 87. There were three Category 5 tropical cyclones across the globe—two in the western North Pacific and one in the North Atlantic. This was the fewest Category 5 storms globally since 2017. Globally, the accumulated cyclone energy was the lowest since reliable records began in 1981. Regardless, some storms caused massive damage. In the North Atlantic, Hurricane Fiona became the most intense and most destructive tropical or post-tropical cyclone in Atlantic Canada’s history, while major Hurricane Ian killed more than 100 people and became the third costliest disaster in the United States, causing damage estimated at $113 billion U.S. dollars. In the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Batsirai dropped 2044 mm of rain at Commerson Crater in Réunion. The storm also impacted Madagascar, where 121 fatalities were reported. As is typical, some areas around the world were notably dry in 2022 and some were notably wet. In August, record high areas of land across the globe (6.2%) were experiencing extreme drought. Overall, 29% of land experienced moderate or worse categories of drought during the year. The largest drought footprint in the contiguous United States since 2012 (63%) was observed in late October. The record-breaking megadrought of central Chile continued in its 13th consecutive year, and 80-year record-low river levels in northern Argentina and Paraguay disrupted fluvial transport. In China, the Yangtze River reached record-low values. Much of equatorial eastern Africa had five consecutive below-normal rainy seasons by the end of 2022, with some areas receiving record-low precipitation totals for the year. This ongoing 2.5-year drought is the most extensive and persistent drought event in decades, and led to crop failure, millions of livestock deaths, water scarcity, and inflated prices for staple food items. In South Asia, Pakistan received around three times its normal volume of monsoon precipitation in August, with some regions receiving up to eight times their expected monthly totals. Resulting floods affected over 30 million people, caused over 1700 fatalities, led to major crop and property losses, and was recorded as one of the world’s costliest natural disasters of all time. Near Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Petrópolis received 530 mm in 24 hours on 15 February, about 2.5 times the monthly February average, leading to the worst disaster in the city since 1931 with over 230 fatalities. On 14–15 January, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai submarine volcano in the South Pacific erupted multiple times. The injection of water into the atmosphere was unprecedented in both magnitude—far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year satellite record—and altitude as it penetrated into the mesosphere. The amount of water injected into the stratosphere is estimated to be 146±5 Terragrams, or ∼10% of the total amount in the stratosphere. It may take several years for the water plume to dissipate, and it is currently unknown whether this eruption will have any long-term climate effect.

Abstract: The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), part of the European Union’s Earth observation program Copernicus, entered operations in July 2015. Implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as a truly European effort with over 23,500 direct data users and well over 200 million end users worldwide as of March 2022, CAMS delivers numerous global and regional information products about air quality, inventory-based emissions and observation-based surface fluxes of greenhouse gases and from biomass burning, solar energy, ozone and UV radiation, and climate forcings. Access to CAMS products is open and free of charge via the Atmosphere Data Store. The CAMS global atmospheric composition analyses, forecasts, and reanalyses build on ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and exploit over 90 different satellite data streams. The global products are complemented by coherent higher-resolution regional air quality products over Europe derived from multisystem analyses and forecasts. CAMS information products also include policy support such as quantitative impact assessment of short- and long-term pollutant-emission mitigation scenarios, source apportionment information, and annual European air quality assessment reports. Relevant CAMS products are cited and used for instance in IPCC Assessment Reports. Providing dedicated support for users operating smartphone applications, websites, or TV bulletins in Europe and worldwide is also integral to the service. This paper presents key achievements of the CAMS initial phase (2014–21) and outlines some of its new components for the second phase (2021–28), e.g., the new Copernicus anthropogenic CO 2 emissions Monitoring and Verification Support capacity that will monitor global anthropogenic emissions of key greenhouse gases.

Abstract: Abstract. Global monitoring of aerosols is required to analyse the impacts of aerosols on air quality and to understand their role in modulating the climate variability. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides near-real-time forecasts and reanalyses of aerosols using the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), constrained by the assimilation of MODIS and Polar Multi-Sensor Aerosol Optical Properties (PMAp) aerosol optical depth (AOD). Given the potential end of lifetime of MODIS AOD, implementing new AOD observations in the CAMS operational suite is a priority to ensure the continuity of the CAMS forecast performances. The objective of this work is to test the assimilation of the NOAA VIIRS AOD product from S-NPP and NOAA20 satellites in the IFS model. Simulation experiments assimilating VIIRS on top or in place of MODIS were carried out from June 2021 to November 2021 to evaluate the impacts on the AOD analysis. For maritime aerosol background, the assimilation of VIIRS and the use of VIIRS from NOAA20 as an anchor reduce the analysis AOD values compared to MODIS-based experiments, in which the analysis values were too high due to the positive bias of MODIS/Terra over ocean. Over land, the assimilation of VIIRS induces a large increase in the analysis over biomass burning regions where VIIRS shows larger AOD than MODIS due to differences in the aerosol models and cloud filtering between MODIS and VIIRS retrieval algorithms. For dust source regions, the analysis is reduced when VIIRS is assimilated on top of or in place of MODIS, particularly over the Sahara, the Arabian Peninsula and a few places in Asia in the July–August period. The assimilation of VIIRS leads to an overall reduction of the bias in AOD analysis evaluated against AERONET measurements, with the largest bias reduction over Europe and desert and maritime sites.

Abstract: Abstract. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), operated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts on behalf of the European Commission, provides daily analyses and 5 d forecasts of atmospheric composition, including forecasts of volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO2) in near real time. CAMS currently assimilates total column SO2 products from the GOME-2 instruments on MetOp-B and MetOp-C and the TROPOMI instrument on Sentinel-5P, which give information about the location and strength of volcanic plumes. However, the operational TROPOMI and GOME-2 data do not provide any information about the height of the volcanic plumes, and therefore some prior assumptions need to be made in the CAMS data assimilation system about where to place the resulting SO2 increments in the vertical. In the current operational CAMS configuration, the SO2 increments are placed in the mid-troposphere, around 550 hPa or 5 km. While this gives good results for the majority of volcanic emissions, it will clearly be wrong for eruptions that inject SO2 at very different altitudes, in particular exceptional events where part of the SO2 plume reaches the stratosphere. A new algorithm, developed by the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) for GOME-2 and TROPOMI, optimized in the frame of the ESA-funded Sentinel-5P Innovation–SO2 Layer Height Project, and known as the Full-Physics Inverse Learning Machine (FP_ILM) algorithm, retrieves SO2 layer height from TROPOMI in near real time (NRT) in addition to the SO2 column. CAMS is testing the assimilation of these products, making use of the NRT layer height information to place the SO2 increments at a retrieved altitude. Assimilation tests with the TROPOMI SO2 layer height data for the Raikoke eruption in June 2019 show that the resulting CAMS SO2 plume heights agree better with IASI plume height data than operational CAMS runs without the TROPOMI SO2 layer height information and show that making use of the additional layer height information leads to improved SO2 forecasts. Including the layer height information leads to higher modelled total column SO2 values in better agreement with the satellite observations. However, the plume area and SO2 burden are generally also overestimated in the CAMS analysis when layer height data are used. The main reason for this overestimation is the coarse horizontal resolution used in the minimizations. By assimilating the SO2 layer height data, the CAMS system can predict the overall location of the Raikoke SO2 plume up to 5 d in advance for about 20 d after the initial eruption, which is better than with the operational CAMS configuration (without prior knowledge of the plume height) where the forecast skill is much more reduced for longer forecast lead times.

Abstract: Abstract. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis is the latest global reanalysis dataset of atmospheric composition produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), consisting of three-dimensional time-consistent atmospheric composition fields, including aerosols and chemical species. The dataset currently covers the period 2003–2016 and will be extended in the future by adding 1 year each year. A reanalysis for greenhouse gases is being produced separately. The CAMS reanalysis builds on the experience gained during the production of the earlier Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) reanalysis and CAMS interim reanalysis. Satellite retrievals of total column CO; tropospheric column NO2; aerosol optical depth (AOD); and total column, partial column and profile ozone retrievals were assimilated for the CAMS reanalysis with ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System. The new reanalysis has an increased horizontal resolution of about 80 km and provides more chemical species at a better temporal resolution (3-hourly analysis fields, 3-hourly forecast fields and hourly surface forecast fields) than the previously produced CAMS interim reanalysis. The CAMS reanalysis has smaller biases compared with most of the independent ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide and aerosol optical depth observations used for validation in this paper than the previous two reanalyses and is much improved and more consistent in time, especially compared to the MACC reanalysis. The CAMS reanalysis is a dataset that can be used to compute climatologies, study trends, evaluate models, benchmark other reanalyses or serve as boundary conditions for regional models for past periods.

Abstract: Abstract. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) has recently produced a greenhouse gas reanalysis (version egg4) that covers almost 2 decades from 2003 to 2020 and which will be extended in the future. This reanalysis dataset includes carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). The reanalysis procedure combines model data with satellite data into a globally complete and consistent dataset using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). This dataset has been carefully evaluated against independent observations to ensure validity and to point out deficiencies to the user. The greenhouse gas reanalysis can be used to examine the impact of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations on climate change (such as global and regional climate radiative forcing), assess intercontinental transport, and serve as boundary conditions for regional simulations, among other applications and scientific uses. The caveats associated with changes in assimilated observations and fixed underlying emissions are highlighted, as is their impact on the estimation of trends and annual growth rates of these long-lived greenhouse gases.

Abstract: Abstract. The Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on the Copernicus Sentinel 5 Precursor (S5P) satellite, launched in October 2017, provides a wealth of atmospheric composition data, including total columns of carbon monoxide (TCCO) at high horizontal resolution (5.5 km × 7 km). Near-real-time TROPOMI TCCO data have been monitored in the global data assimilation system of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) since November 2018 to assess the quality of the data. The CAMS system already routinely assimilates TCCO data from the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) outside the polar regions. The assimilation of TROPOMI TCCO data in the CAMS system was tested for the period 6 July to 31 December 2021, i.e. after the TROPOMI algorithm update to version 02.02.00 in July 2021. By assimilating TROPOMI TCCO observations, the CAMS CO columns increase by on average 8 %, resulting in an improved fit to independent observations (IAGOS aircraft profiles and NDACC Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) tropospheric and total-column CO data) compared to a version of the CAMS system where only TCCO from MOPITT and IASI is assimilated. The largest absolute and relative changes from the assimilation of TROPOMI CO are found in the lower and middle troposphere, i.e. that part of the atmosphere that is not already well constrained by the assimilated TIR MOPITT and IASI data. The largest impact near the surface comes from clear-sky TROPOMI data over land, and additional vertical information comes from the retrievals of measurements in cloudy conditions. July and August 2021 saw record numbers of boreal wildfires over North America and Russia, leading to large amounts of CO being released into the atmosphere. The paper assesses the impact of TROPOMI CO assimilation on selected CO plumes more closely. While the CO column can be well constrained by the assimilation of TROPOMI CO data, and the fit to individual IAGOS CO profiles in the lower and middle troposphere is considerably improved, the TROPOMI CO columns do not provide further constraints on individual plumes that are transported across continents and oceans at altitudes above 500 hPa.

Abstract: Abstract. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides near-real-time forecast and reanalysis of aerosols using the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System with atmospheric composition extension, constrained by the assimilation of MODIS and the Polar Multi-Sensor Aerosol Optical Properties (PMAp) aerosol optical depth (AOD). The objective of this work is to evaluate two new near-real-time AOD products to prepare for their assimilation into CAMS, namely the Copernicus AOD (collection 1) from the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR) on board Sentinel 3-A/B over ocean and the NOAA EPS AOD (v2.r1) from VIIRS on board S-NPP and NOAA20 over both land and ocean. The differences between MODIS (C6.1), PMAp (v2.1), VIIRS (v2.r1), and SLSTR (C1) AOD as well as their departure from the modeled AOD were assessed at the model grid resolution (i.e., level-3) using the 3-month AOD average (December 2019–February 2020 and March–May 2020). VIIRS and MODIS show the best consistency across the products, which is explained by instrument and retrieval algorithm similarities. VIIRS AOD is frequently lower over the ocean background and higher over biomass burning and dust source land regions compared to MODIS. VIIRS shows larger spatial coverage over land and resolves finer spatial structures such as the transport of Australian biomass burning smoke over the Pacific, which can be explained by the use of a heavy aerosol detection test in the retrieval algorithm. Our results confirm the positive offset over ocean (i) between Terra/MODIS and Aqua/MODIS due to the non-corrected radiometric calibration degradation of Terra/MODIS in the Dark Target algorithm and (ii) between SNPP/VIIRS and NOAA20/VIIRS due to the positive bias in the solar reflective bands of SNPP/VIIRS. SLSTR AOD shows much smaller level-3 values than the rest of the products, which is mainly related to differences in spatial representativity at the IFS grid spatial resolution due to the stringent cloud filtering applied to the SLSTR radiances. Finally, the geometry characteristics of the instrument, which drive the range of scattering angles sampled by the instrument, can explain a large part of the differences between retrievals such as the positive offset between PMAp datasets from MetOp-B and MetOp-A.