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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Impact of Systematic Factors on the Outbreak Outcomes of the Novel COVID-19 Disease in China: Factor Analysis Study
    JMIR Publications Inc. ; 2020
    In:  Journal of Medical Internet Research Vol. 22, No. 11 ( 2020-11-11), p. e23853-
    Details
    In: Journal of Medical Internet Research, JMIR Publications Inc., Vol. 22, No. 11 ( 2020-11-11), p. e23853-
    Abstract: The novel COVID-19 disease has spread worldwide, resulting in a new pandemic. The Chinese government implemented strong intervention measures in the early stage of the epidemic, including strict travel bans and social distancing policies. Prioritizing the analysis of different contributing factors to outbreak outcomes is important for the precise prevention and control of infectious diseases. We proposed a novel framework for resolving this issue and applied it to data from China. Objective This study aimed to systematically identify national-level and city-level contributing factors to the control of COVID-19 in China. Methods Daily COVID-19 case data and related multidimensional data, including travel-related, medical, socioeconomic, environmental, and influenza-like illness factors, from 343 cities in China were collected. A correlation analysis and interpretable machine learning algorithm were used to evaluate the quantitative contribution of factors to new cases and COVID-19 growth rates during the epidemic period (ie, January 17 to February 29, 2020). Results Many factors correlated with the spread of COVID-19 in China. Travel-related population movement was the main contributing factor for new cases and COVID-19 growth rates in China, and its contributions were as high as 77% and 41%, respectively. There was a clear lag effect for travel-related factors (previous vs current week: new cases, 45% vs 32%; COVID-19 growth rates, 21% vs 20%). Travel from non-Wuhan regions was the single factor with the most significant impact on COVID-19 growth rates (contribution: new cases, 12%; COVID-19 growth rate, 26%), and its contribution could not be ignored. City flow, a measure of outbreak control strength, contributed 16% and 7% to new cases and COVID-19 growth rates, respectively. Socioeconomic factors also played important roles in COVID-19 growth rates in China (contribution, 28%). Other factors, including medical, environmental, and influenza-like illness factors, also contributed to new cases and COVID-19 growth rates in China. Based on our analysis of individual cities, compared to Beijing, population flow from Wuhan and internal flow within Wenzhou were driving factors for increasing the number of new cases in Wenzhou. For Chongqing, the main contributing factor for new cases was population flow from Hubei, beyond Wuhan. The high COVID-19 growth rates in Wenzhou were driven by population-related factors. Conclusions Many factors contributed to the COVID-19 outbreak outcomes in China. The differential effects of various factors, including specific city-level factors, emphasize the importance of precise, targeted strategies for controlling the COVID-19 outbreak and future infectious disease outbreaks.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1438-8871
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.2196/23853
    Language: English
    Publisher: JMIR Publications Inc.
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2028830-X
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Projections of Lung Cancer Incidence by 2035 in 40 Countries Worldwide: Population-Based Study
    JMIR Publications Inc. ; 2023
    In:  JMIR Public Health and Surveillance Vol. 9 ( 2023-2-17), p. e43651-
    Details
    In: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, JMIR Publications Inc., Vol. 9 ( 2023-2-17), p. e43651-
    Abstract: The global burden of lung cancer (LC) is increasing. Quantitative projections of the future LC burden in different world regions could help optimize the allocation of resources and provide a benchmark for evaluating LC prevention and control interventions. Objective We aimed to predict the future incidence of LC in 40 countries by 2035, with an emphasis on country- and sex-specific disparities. Methods Data on LC incidence from 1978 to 2012 were extracted from 126 cancer registries of 40 countries in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes V-XI and used for the projection. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years and the number of incident cases were predicted through 2035, using the NORDPRED age-period-cohort model. Results Global ASRs of the 40 studied countries were predicted to decrease by 23% (8.2/35.8) among males, from 35.8 per 100,000 person-years in 2010 to 27.6 in 2035, and increase by 2% (0.3/16.8) among females, from 16.8 in 2010 to 17.1 in 2035. The ASRs of LC among females are projected to continue increasing dramatically in most countries by 2035, with peaks after the 2020s in most European, Eastern Asian, and Oceanian countries, whereas the ASRs among males will continue to decline in almost all countries. The ASRs among females are predicted to almost reach those among males in Ireland, Norway, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Canada, the United States, and New Zealand in 2025 and in Slovenia in 2035 and even surpass those among males in Denmark in 2020 and in Brazil and Colombia in 2025. In 2035, the highest ASRs are projected to occur among males in Belarus (49.3) and among females in Denmark (36.8). The number of new cases in 40 countries is predicted to increase by 65.32% (858,000/1,314,000), from 1.31 million in 2010 to 2.17 million in 2035. China will have the largest number of new cases. Conclusions LC incidence is expected to continue to increase through 2035 in most countries, making LC a major public health challenge worldwide. The ongoing transition in the epidemiology of LC highlights the need for resource redistribution and improved LC control measures to reduce future LC burden worldwide.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2369-2960
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.2196/43651
    Language: English
    Publisher: JMIR Publications Inc.
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2874192-4
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Spatiotemporal Distribution of HIV Self-testing Kits Purchased on the Web and Implications for HIV Prevention in China: Population-Based Study
    JMIR Publications Inc. ; 2022
    In:  JMIR Public Health and Surveillance Vol. 8, No. 10 ( 2022-10-4), p. e35272-
    Details
    In: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, JMIR Publications Inc., Vol. 8, No. 10 ( 2022-10-4), p. e35272-
    Abstract: HIV self-testing (HIVST) holds great promise for expanding HIV testing. Nonetheless, large-scale data on HIVST behavior are scant. Millions of HIVST kits are sold through e-commerce platforms each year. Objective This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of the HIVST kit–purchasing population (HIVSTKPP) in China. Methods Deidentified transaction data were retrieved from a leading e-commerce platform in China. A joinpoint regression model was used to examine annual trends of the HIVSTKPP rates by calculating average annual percentage change. Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis was performed to locate hot spots with HIVSTKPP rates. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and space-time cluster analysis were conducted to identify clusters of HIVSTKPP. High-high clusters of HIVSTKPP can be identified by spatial autocorrelation analysis, and high-high clusters indicate that a region and its surrounding region jointly had a higher-than-average HIVSTKPP rate. Spatial regression analysis was used to elucidate the association between the number of HIV testing facilities, urbanization ratio (the proportion of urban population in the total population), and gross domestic product per capita and the HIVSTKPP. Results Between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2019, a total of 2.18 million anonymous persons in China placed 4.15 million orders and purchased 4.51 million HIVST kits on the web. In each of these 4 years, the observed monthly size of the HIVSTKPP peaked in December, the month of World AIDS Day. HIVSTKPP rates per 100,000 population significantly increased from 20.62 in 2016 to 64.82 in 2019 (average annual percentage change=48.2%; P 〈 .001). Hot spots were mainly located in municipalities, provincial capitals, and large cities, whereas high-high clusters and high-demand clusters were predominantly detected in cities along the southeast coast. We found positive correlations between a region’s number of HIV testing facilities, urbanization ratio, and gross domestic product per capita and the HIVSTKPP. Conclusions Our study identified key areas with larger demand for HIVST kits for public health policy makers to reallocate resources and optimize the HIV care continuum. Further research combining spatiotemporal patterns of HIVST with HIV surveillance data is urgently needed to identify potential gaps in current HIV-monitoring practices.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2369-2960
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.2196/35272
    Language: English
    Publisher: JMIR Publications Inc.
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2874192-4
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Global Pattern and Trends in Penile Cancer Incidence: Population-Based Study
    JMIR Publications Inc. ; 2022
    In:  JMIR Public Health and Surveillance Vol. 8, No. 7 ( 2022-7-6), p. e34874-
    Details
    In: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, JMIR Publications Inc., Vol. 8, No. 7 ( 2022-7-6), p. e34874-
    Abstract: Penile cancer is a relatively rare genital malignancy whose incidence and mortality are rising in many countries. Objective This study aims to assess the recent incidence and mortality patterns and incidence trends of penile cancer. Methods The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates (ASIR and ASMR, respectively) of penile cancer in 2020 were estimated from the Global Cancer Registries (GLOBOCAN) database. Incidence trends of penile cancer from 1973 to 2012 were assessed in 44 populations from 43 countries using the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents plus (CI5plus) and the Nordic Cancer Registries (NORDCAN) databases. Average annual percentage change was calculated to quantify trends in ASIR using joinpoint regression. Results Globally, the estimated ASIR and ASMR of penile cancer were 0.80 (per 100,000) and 0.29 (per 100,000) in 2020, equating to 36,068 new cases and 13,211 deaths in 2020, respectively. There was no significant correlation between the ASIR (P=.05) or ASMR (P=.90) and Human Development Index. In addition, 15 countries saw increasing ASIR for penile cancer, 13 of which were from Europe (United Kingdom, Lithuania, Norway, Estonia, Finland, Sweden, Cyprus, Netherlands, Italy, Croatia, Slovakia, Russia, and the Czech), and 2 from Asia (China and Israel). Conclusions Although the developing countries still bear the higher incidence and mortality of penile cancer, the incidence is on the rise in most European countries. To mitigate the disease burden resulting from penile cancer, measures to lower the risk for penile cancers, including improving penile hygiene and male human papillomavirus vaccination, may be warranted.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2369-2960
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.2196/34874
    Language: English
    Publisher: JMIR Publications Inc.
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2874192-4
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Impact of COVID-19 Lockdown on Cases of and Deaths From AIDS, Gonorrhea, Syphilis, Hepatitis B, and Hepatitis C: Interrupted Time Series Analysis
    JMIR Publications Inc. ; 2023
    In:  JMIR Public Health and Surveillance Vol. 9 ( 2023-5-3), p. e40591-
    Details
    In: JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, JMIR Publications Inc., Vol. 9 ( 2023-5-3), p. e40591-
    Abstract: China implemented a nationwide lockdown to contain COVID-19 from an early stage. Previous studies of the impact of COVID-19 on sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and diseases caused by blood-borne viruses (BBVs) in China have yielded widely disparate results, and studies on deaths attributable to STDs and BBVs are scarce. Objective We aimed to elucidate the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on cases, deaths, and case-fatality ratios of STDs and BBVs. Methods We extracted monthly data on cases and deaths for AIDS, gonorrhea, syphilis, hepatitis B, and hepatitis C between January 2015 and December 2021 from the notifiable disease reporting database on the official website of the National Health Commission of China. We used descriptive statistics to summarize the number of cases and deaths and calculated incidence and case-fatality ratios before and after the implementation of a nationwide lockdown (in January 2020). We used negative binominal segmented regression models to estimate the immediate and long-term impacts of lockdown on cases, deaths, and case-fatality ratios in January 2020 and December 2021, respectively. Results A total of 14,800,330 cases of and 127,030 deaths from AIDS, gonorrhea, syphilis, hepatitis B, and hepatitis C were reported from January 2015 to December 2021, with an incidence of 149.11/100,000 before lockdown and 151.41/100,000 after lockdown and a case-fatality ratio of 8.21/1000 before lockdown and 9.50/1000 after lockdown. The negative binominal model showed significant decreases in January 2020 in AIDS cases (–23.4%; incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.766, 95% CI 0.626-0.939) and deaths (–23.9%; IRR 0.761, 95% CI 0.647-0.896), gonorrhea cases (–34.3%; IRR 0.657, 95% CI 0.524-0.823), syphilis cases (–15.4%; IRR 0.846, 95% CI 0.763-0.937), hepatitis B cases (–17.5%; IRR 0.825, 95% CI 0.726-0.937), and hepatitis C cases (–19.6%; IRR 0.804, 95% CI 0.693-0.933). Gonorrhea, syphilis, and hepatitis C showed small increases in the number of deaths and case-fatality ratios in January 2020. By December 2021, the cases, deaths, and case-fatality ratios for each disease had either reached or remained below expected levels. Conclusions COVID-19 lockdown may have contributed to fewer reported cases of AIDS, gonorrhea, syphilis, hepatitis B, and hepatitis C and more reported deaths and case-fatality ratios of gonorrhea, syphilis, and hepatitis C in China.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2369-2960
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.2196/40591
    Language: English
    Publisher: JMIR Publications Inc.
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2874192-4
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