In:
Ecosphere, Wiley, Vol. 7, No. 6 ( 2016-06)
Abstract:
Managing for species using current weather patterns fails to incorporate the uncertainty associated with future climatic conditions; without incorporating potential changes in climate into conservation strategies, management and conservation efforts may fall short or waste valuable resources. Understanding the effects of climate change on species in the G reat P lains of N orth A merica is especially important, as this region is projected to experience an increased magnitude of climate change. Of particular ecological and conservation interest is the lesser prairie‐chicken ( T ympanuchus pallidicinctus ), which was listed as “threatened” under the U . S . E ndangered S pecies A ct in M ay 2014. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify the effects of extreme climatic events (extreme values of the P almer D rought S everity I ndex [ PDSI ]) relative to intermediate (changes in E l N iño S outhern O scillation) and long‐term climate variability (changes in the P acific D ecadal O scillation) on trends in lesser prairie‐chicken abundance from 1981 to 2014. Our results indicate that lesser prairie‐chicken abundance on leks responded to environmental conditions of the year previous by positively responding to wet springs (high PDSI ) and negatively to years with hot, dry summers (low PDSI ), but had little response to variation in the E l N iño S outhern O scillation and the P acific D ecadal O scillation. Additionally, greater variation in abundance on leks was explained by variation in site relative to broad‐scale climatic indices. Consequently, lesser prairie‐chicken abundance on leks in K ansas is more strongly influenced by extreme drought events during summer than other climatic conditions, which may have negative consequences for the population as drought conditions intensify throughout the G reat P lains.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
2150-8925
,
2150-8925
Language:
English
Publisher:
Wiley
Publication Date:
2016
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2572257-8
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