In:
Nature Microbiology, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 4, No. 9 ( 2019-06-10), p. 1508-1515
Abstract:
Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world’s population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
2058-5276
DOI:
10.1038/s41564-019-0476-8
Language:
English
Publisher:
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Publication Date:
2019
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2845610-5
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