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  • American Meteorological Society  (10)
  • English  (10)
  • 2015-2019  (10)
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  • American Meteorological Society  (10)
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  • English  (10)
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  • 2015-2019  (10)
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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Curious Case of the EL Niño That Never Happened: A Perspective from 40 Years of Progress in Climate Research and Forecasting
    American Meteorological Society ; 2015
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 96, No. 10 ( 2015-10-01), p. 1647-1665
    Details
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, No. 10 ( 2015-10-01), p. 1647-1665
    Abstract: Forty years ago, Klaus Wyrtki of the University of Hawaii launched an “El Niño Watch” expedition to the eastern equatorial Pacific to document oceanographic changes that were expected to develop during the onset of an El Niño event in early 1975. He and his colleagues used a very simple atmospheric pressure index to predict the event and convinced the National Science Foundation and Office of Naval Research to support an expedition to the eastern Pacific on relatively short notice. An anomalous warming was detected during the first half of the expedition, but it quickly dissipated. Given the state of the art in El Niño research at the time, Wyrtki and colleagues could offer no explanation for why the initial warming failed to amplify, nor could they connect what they observed to what was happening in other parts of the basin prior to and during the expedition. With the benefit of hindsight, the authors provide a basin-scale context for what the expedition observed, elucidate the dynamical processes that gave rise to the abbreviated warming that was detected, and present retrospective forecasts of the event using modern coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamical model prediction systems. Reviewing this history highlights how early pioneers in El Niño research, despite the obstacles they faced, were able to make significant progress through bold initiatives that advanced the frontiers of our knowledge. It is also evident that, even though the scientific community today has a much deeper understanding of climate variability, more advanced observational capabilities, and sophisticated seasonal forecasting tools, skillful predictions of El Niño and its cold counterpart La Niña remain a major challenge.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00089.1
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Why Has the Relationship between Indian and Pacific Ocean Decadal Variability Changed in Recent Decades?
    American Meteorological Society ; 2017
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 30, No. 6 ( 2017-03-15), p. 1971-1983
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 30, No. 6 ( 2017-03-15), p. 1971-1983
    Abstract: Both the Indian and Pacific Oceans exhibit prominent decadal time scale variations in sea surface temperature (SST), linked dynamically via atmospheric and oceanic processes. However, the relationship between SST in these two basins underwent a dramatic transformation beginning around 1985. Prior to that, SST variations associated with the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOB) and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) were positively correlated, whereas afterward they were much less clearly synchronized. Evidence is presented from both observations and coupled state-of-the-art climate models that enhanced external forcing, particularly from increased anthropogenic greenhouse gases, was the principal cause of this changed relationship. Using coupled climate model experiments, it is shown that without external forcing, the evolution of the IOB would be strongly forced by variations in the IPO. However, with strong external forcing, the dynamical linkage between the IOB and the IPO weakens so that the negative phase IPO after 2000 is unable to force a negative phase IOB-induced cooling of the Indian Ocean. This changed relationship in the IOB and IPO led to unique SST patterns in the Indo-Pacific region after 2000, which favored exceptionally strong easterly trade winds over the tropical Pacific Ocean and a pronounced global warming hiatus in the first decade of the twenty-first century.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0313.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Interhemispheric SST Gradient Trends in the Indian Ocean prior to and during the Recent Global Warming Hiatusa
    American Meteorological Society ; 2016
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 29, No. 24 ( 2016-12-15), p. 9077-9095
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 29, No. 24 ( 2016-12-15), p. 9077-9095
    Abstract: Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have been rising for decades in the Indian Ocean in response to greenhouse gas forcing. However, this study shows that during the recent hiatus in global warming, a striking interhemispheric gradient in Indian Ocean SST trends developed around 2000, with relatively weak or little warming to the north of 10°S and accelerated warming to the south of 10°S. Evidence is presented from a wide variety of data sources showing that this interhemispheric gradient in SST trends is forced primarily by an increase of Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport from the Pacific into the Indian Ocean induced by stronger Pacific trade winds. This increased transport led to a depression of the thermocline that facilitated SST warming, presumably through a reduction in the vertical turbulent transport of heat in the southern Indian Ocean. Surface wind changes in the Indian Ocean linked to the enhanced Walker circulation also may have contributed to thermocline depth variations and associated SST changes, with downwelling-favorable wind stress curls between 10° and 20°S and upwelling-favorable wind stress curls between the equator and 10°S. In addition, the anomalous southwesterly wind stresses off the coast of Somalia favored intensified coastal upwelling and offshore advection of upwelled water, which would have led to reduced warming of the northern Indian Ocean. Although highly uncertain, lateral heat advection associated with the ITF and surface heat fluxes may also have played a role in forming the interhemispheric SST gradient change.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0130.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Ocean Processes Affecting the Twenty-First-Century Shift in ENSO SST Variability
    American Meteorological Society ; 2016
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 29, No. 19 ( 2016-10-01), p. 6861-6879
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 29, No. 19 ( 2016-10-01), p. 6861-6879
    Abstract: Sea surface temperature (SST) variability associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) slightly increased in the central Pacific Ocean but weakened significantly in the eastern Pacific at the beginning of twenty-first century relative to 1980–99. This decadal shift led to the greater prominence central Pacific (CP) El Niño events during the 2000s relative to the previous two decades, which were dominated by eastern Pacific (EP) events. To expand upon previous studies that have examined this shift in ENSO variability, temperature and temperature variance budgets are examined in the mixed layer of the Niño-3 (5°S–5°N, 150°–90°W) and Niño-4 (5°S–5°N, 160°E–150°W) regions from seven ocean model products spanning the period 1980–2010. This multimodel-product-based approach provides a robust assessment of dominant mechanisms that account for decadal changes in two key index regions. A temperature variance budget perspective on the role of thermocline feedbacks in the ENSO cycle based on recharge oscillator theory is also presented. As found in previous studies, thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks are the most important positive feedbacks for generating ENSO SST variance, and thermodynamic damping is the largest negative feedback for damping ENSO variance. Consistent with the shift toward more CP El Niños after 2000, thermocline feedbacks experienced a substantial reduction from 1980 to 1999 and into the 2000s, while zonal advective feedbacks were less affected. Negative feedbacks likewise weakened after 2000, particularly thermal damping in the Niño-3 region and the nonlinear sink of variance in both regions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0870.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Fourth CLIVAR Workshop on the Evaluation of ENSO Processes in Climate Models: ENSO in a Changing Climate
    American Meteorological Society ; 2016
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 97, No. 5 ( 2016-05-01), p. 817-820
    Details
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 97, No. 5 ( 2016-05-01), p. 817-820
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00287.1
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    AMO Forcing of Multidecadal Pacific ITCZ Variability
    American Meteorological Society ; 2018
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 31, No. 14 ( 2018-07), p. 5749-5764
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 31, No. 14 ( 2018-07), p. 5749-5764
    Abstract: The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) has been shown to play a major role in the multidecadal variability of the Northern Hemisphere, impacting temperature and precipitation, including intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ)-driven precipitation across Africa and South America. Studies into the location of the intertropical convergence zone have suggested that it resides in the warmer hemisphere, with the poleward branch of the Hadley cell acting to transport energy from the warmer hemisphere to the cooler one. Given the impact of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on Northern Hemisphere temperatures, we expect the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation to have an impact on the location of the intertropical convergence zone. We find that the positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation warms the Northern Hemisphere, resulting in a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone, which is evident in the Pacific climate proxy record. Using a coupled climate model, we further find that the shift in the intertropical convergence zone is consistent with the surface energy imbalance generated by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. In this model, the Pacific changes are driven in large part by the warming of the tropical Atlantic and not the extratropical Atlantic.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0810.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Extreme Noise–Extreme El Niño: How State-Dependent Noise Forcing Creates El Niño–La Niña Asymmetry
    American Meteorological Society ; 2016
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 29, No. 15 ( 2016-08-01), p. 5483-5499
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 29, No. 15 ( 2016-08-01), p. 5483-5499
    Abstract: A major open question about El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is what causes ENSO amplitude asymmetry, with strong El Niños generally larger than strong La Niñas. The authors examine a leading hypothesis—that the ENSO state modifies the fetch and/or wind speed of westerly wind bursts (WWBs) that create asymmetric forcing and an asymmetric ENSO response. Further, in El Niño forecasts, the number of WWBs expected increases in the month following a strong WWB when compared with the month preceding it. Using a conceptual model, a relationship is derived between the magnitude of the westerly wind burst state dependence on ENSO and ENSO asymmetry. It is found that this relationship between the magnitude of the state dependence and ENSO asymmetry holds in both the observations and 21 coupled climate models. Finally, it is found that because of state-dependent westerly wind burst forcing, extreme El Niño events tend to be of the eastern Pacific variety.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0091.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Effects of External Forcing and Internal Variability on the Formation of Interhemispheric Sea Surface Temperature Gradient Trends in the Indian Ocean
    American Meteorological Society ; 2017
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 30, No. 22 ( 2017-11-15), p. 9077-9095
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 30, No. 22 ( 2017-11-15), p. 9077-9095
    Abstract: A striking trend of the Indian Ocean interhemispheric gradient in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) developed during the recent global warming hiatus. The contributions of external forcing and internal variability to this trend are examined in forced climate model experiments. Results indicate that the observed negative trend was strong by historical standards and most likely due to internal variability rather than to external forcing. Anthropogenic aerosol forcing favors negative gradient trends, but its effects are countered by greenhouse gas forcing, and both are weak relative to internal variability. The observed interhemispheric gradient trend occurred in parallel with a negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), a linkage that is also found in climate models. However, the physical mechanisms responsible for these gradient trends in models differ from those in ocean reanalysis products. In particular, oceanic processes via an increased Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport into the Indian Ocean forced by stronger Pacific trade winds are the principal cause of the observed negative SST gradient trend during 2000–13. In contrast, atmospheric processes via changing surface wind stress over the southern Indian Ocean remotely forced by the IPO appear to play a dominant role in changing the interhemispheric SST gradients in climate models. The models underestimate the magnitude of the IPO and produce changes in the ITF that are too weak owing to their coarse spatial resolution. These model deficiencies may account for the differences between the simulations and observations.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0138.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    100 Years of Progress in Ocean Observing Systems
    American Meteorological Society ; 2019
    In:  Meteorological Monographs Vol. 59 ( 2019-01-01), p. 3.1-3.46
    Details
    In: Meteorological Monographs, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 59 ( 2019-01-01), p. 3.1-3.46
    Abstract: The history of over 100 years of observing the ocean is reviewed. The evolution of particular classes of ocean measurements (e.g., shipboard hydrography, moorings, and drifting floats) are summarized along with some of the discoveries and dynamical understanding they made possible. By the 1970s, isolated and “expedition” observational approaches were evolving into experimental campaigns that covered large ocean areas and addressed multiscale phenomena using diverse instrumental suites and associated modeling and analysis teams. The Mid-Ocean Dynamics Experiment (MODE) addressed mesoscale “eddies” and their interaction with larger-scale currents using new ocean modeling and experiment design techniques and a suite of developing observational methods. Following MODE, new instrument networks were established to study processes that dominated ocean behavior in different regions. The Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere program gathered multiyear time series in the tropical Pacific to understand, and eventually predict, evolution of coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomena like El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) sought to quantify ocean transport throughout the global ocean using temperature, salinity, and other tracer measurements along with fewer direct velocity measurements with floats and moorings. Western and eastern boundary currents attracted comprehensive measurements, and various coastal regions, each with its unique scientific and societally important phenomena, became home to regional observing systems. Today, the trend toward networked observing arrays of many instrument types continues to be a productive way to understand and predict large-scale ocean phenomena.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0065-9401
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/AMSMONOGRAPHS-D-18-0014.1
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 416187-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2630885-X
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Ecological Impacts of the 2015/16 El Niño in the Central Equatorial Pacific
    American Meteorological Society ; 2018
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 99, No. 1 ( 2018-01-01), p. S21-S26
    Details
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 99, No. 1 ( 2018-01-01), p. S21-S26
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0128.1
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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