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  • Jarosch, A. H.  (3)
  • English  (3)
  • 2010-2014  (3)
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  • English  (3)
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  • 2010-2014  (3)
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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    A minimal model for reconstructing interannual mass balance variability of glaciers in the European Alps
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2012
    In:  The Cryosphere Vol. 6, No. 1 ( 2012-01-17), p. 71-84
    Details
    In: The Cryosphere, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 6, No. 1 ( 2012-01-17), p. 71-84
    Abstract: Abstract. We present a minimal model of the glacier surface mass balance. The model relies solely on monthly precipitation and air temperatures as forcing. We first train the model individually for 15 glaciers with existing mass balance measurements. Based on a cross validation, we present a thorough assessment of the model's performance outside of the training period. The cross validation indicates that our model is robust, and our model's performance compares favorably to that from a less parsimonious model based on seasonal sensitivity characteristics. Then, the model is extended for application on glaciers without existing mass balance measurements. We cross validated the model again by withholding the mass balance information from each of the 15 glaciers above during the model training, in order to measure its performance on glaciers not included in the model training. This cross validation indicates that the model retains considerable skill even when applied on glaciers without mass balance measurements. As an exemplary application, the model is then used to reconstruct time series of interannual mass balance variability, covering the past two hundred years, for all glaciers in the European Alps contained in the extended format of the world glacier inventory. Based on this reconstruction, we present a spatially detailed attribution of the glaciers' mass balance variability to temperature and precipitation variability.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1994-0424
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/tc-6-71-2012
    DOI: 10.5194/tc-6-71-2012-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2012
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2393169-3
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2012
    In:  The Cryosphere Vol. 6, No. 6 ( 2012-11-12), p. 1295-1322
    Details
    In: The Cryosphere, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 6, No. 6 ( 2012-11-12), p. 1295-1322
    Abstract: Abstract. We present estimates of sea-level change caused by the global surface mass balance of glaciers, based on the reconstruction and projection of the surface mass balance of all the individual glaciers of the world, excluding the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. The model is validated using a leave-one-glacier-out cross-validation scheme against 3997 observed surface mass balances of 255 glaciers, and against 756 geodetically observed, temporally integrated volume and surface area changes of 341 glaciers. When forced with observed monthly precipitation and temperature data, the glaciers of the world are reconstructed to have lost mass corresponding to 114 ± 5 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) between 1902 and 2009. Using projected temperature and precipitation anomalies from 15 coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble, they are projected to lose an additional 148 ± 35 mm SLE (scenario RCP26), 166 ± 42 mm SLE (scenario RCP45), 175 ± 40 mm SLE (scenario RCP60), or 217 ± 47 mm SLE (scenario RCP85) during the 21st century. Based on the extended RCP scenarios, glaciers are projected to approach a new equilibrium towards the end of the 23rd century, after having lost either 248 ± 66 mm SLE (scenario RCP26), 313 ± 50 mm SLE (scenario RCP45), or 424 ± 46 mm SLE (scenario RCP85). Up until approximately 2100, ensemble uncertainty within each scenario is the biggest source of uncertainty for the future glacier mass loss; after that, the difference between the scenarios takes over as the biggest source of uncertainty. Ice mass loss rates are projected to peak 2040 ∼ 2050 (RCP26), 2050 ∼ 2060 (RCP45), 2070 ∼ 2090 (RCP60), or 2070 ∼ 2100 (RCP85).
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1994-0424
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012
    DOI: 10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2012
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2393169-3
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    Online Resource
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Feedbacks and mechanisms affecting the global sensitivity of glaciers to climate change
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2014
    In:  The Cryosphere Vol. 8, No. 1 ( 2014-01-07), p. 59-71
    Details
    In: The Cryosphere, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 8, No. 1 ( 2014-01-07), p. 59-71
    Abstract: Abstract. Mass loss by glaciers has been an important contributor to sea level rise in the past, and is projected to contribute a substantial fraction of total sea level rise during the 21st century. Here, we use a model of the world's glaciers to quantify equilibrium sensitivities of global glacier mass to climate change, and to investigate the role of changes in glacier hypsometry for long-term mass changes. We find that 21st century glacier-mass loss is largely governed by the glacier's response to 20th century climate change. This limits the influence of 21st century climate change on glacier-mass loss, and explains why there are relatively small differences in glacier-mass loss under greatly different scenarios of climate change. The projected future changes in both temperature and precipitation experienced by glaciers are amplified relative to the global average. The projected increase in precipitation partly compensates for the mass loss caused by warming, but this compensation is negligible at higher temperature anomalies since an increasing fraction of precipitation at the glacier sites is liquid. Loss of low-lying glacier area, and more importantly, eventual complete disappearance of glaciers, strongly limit the projected sea level contribution from glaciers in coming centuries. The adjustment of glacier hypsometry to changes in the forcing strongly reduces the rates of global glacier-mass loss caused by changes in global mean temperature compared to rates of mass loss when hypsometric changes are neglected. This result is a second reason for the relatively weak dependence of glacier-mass loss on future climate scenario, and helps explain why glacier-mass loss in the first half of the 20th century was of the same order of magnitude as in the second half of the 20th century, even though the rate of warming was considerably smaller.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1994-0424
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/tc-8-59-2014
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2393169-3
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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    Online Resource
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