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  • American Meteorological Society  (3)
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  • American Meteorological Society  (3)
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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Constraint of Air–Sea Interaction Significant to Skillful Predictions of North Pacific Climate Variations
    American Meteorological Society ; 2023
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 36, No. 17 ( 2023-09), p. 5941-5962
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 36, No. 17 ( 2023-09), p. 5941-5962
    Abstract: The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is the most dominant decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and has substantial global impacts. However, the interannual and decadal PDO prediction skills are not satisfactory, which may result from the failure of appropriately including the North Pacific midlatitude air–sea interaction (ASI) in the initialization for climate predictions. Here, we present a novel initialization method with a climate model to crack this nutshell and achieve successful PDO index predictions up to 10 years in advance. This approach incorporates oceanic observations under the constraint of ASI, thus obtaining atmospheric initial conditions (ICs) consistent with oceanic ICs. During predictions, positive atmospheric feedback to sea surface temperature changes and time-delayed negative ocean circulation feedback to the atmosphere over the North Pacific play essential roles in the high PDO index prediction skills. Our findings highlight a great potential of ASI constraints during initialization for skillful PDO predictions. Significance Statement The Pacific decadal oscillation is a prominent decadal climate variability over the North Pacific. However, accurately predicting the Pacific decadal oscillation remains a challenge. In this study, we use an advanced initialization method where the oceanic observations are incorporated into a climate model constrained by air–sea interactions. We can successfully predict the Pacific decadal oscillation up to 10 years in advance, which is hardly achieved by the state-of-the-art climate prediction systems. Our results suggest that the constraint of air–sea interaction during initialization is important to skillful predictions of the climate variability on decadal time scales.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0635.1
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0635.s1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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    Online Resource
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Climatology and Interannual Variability of Floods during the TRMM Era (1998–2013)
    American Meteorological Society ; 2020
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 33, No. 8 ( 2020-04-15), p. 3289-3305
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 33, No. 8 ( 2020-04-15), p. 3289-3305
    Abstract: Spatial and temporal variations of global floods during the TRMM period (1998–2013) are explored by means of the outputs of the Dominant River Routing Integrated with VIC Environment model (DRIVE) driven by the precipitation rates from the TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). Climatological and seasonal mean features of floods including frequency (FF), duration (FD), and mean and total intensity (FI and FTI) are examined and further compared to those for a variety of precipitation indices derived from the daily TMPA rain rates. In general, floods and precipitation manifest similar spatial distributions, confirming that more precipitation (both amount and frequency) often indicates higher probability of floods. However, different flood indices can be associated with different precipitation characteristics with a highly region-dependent distribution. FF and FD tend to be more related to daily precipitation frequency globally, especially the mid- to high-end precipitation frequencies (F10, F25, F50). However, FI and FTI tend to be more associated with the mean volume/magnitude of those (extreme) daily precipitation events (Pr10 and Pr25). Nonetheless, daily precipitation intensity except the very high end one (R50) generally has a relatively weak effect on floods. The precipitation–flood relations at the 10 large regions are further examined, providing an improved understanding of precipitation-related flood-generating mechanisms in different locations. On the interannual time scale, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can significantly affect floods in many flood-prone zones. However, it is noted that even though the ENSO effect on floods is mostly through modulating various aspects of precipitation events, significant ENSO signals in precipitation cannot always translate to an effective, simultaneous impact on floods.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0415.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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    Online Resource
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Paired Satellite and NWP Precipitation for Global Flood Forecasting
    American Meteorological Society ; 2023
    In:  Journal of Hydrometeorology Vol. 24, No. 12 ( 2023-12), p. 2191-2205
    Details
    In: Journal of Hydrometeorology, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 24, No. 12 ( 2023-12), p. 2191-2205
    Abstract: Precipitation data are known to be the key driver of hydrological simulations. Hence, reliable quantitative precipitation estimates and forecasts are vital for accurate hydrological forecasting. Satellite-based precipitation estimates from Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM Early Run (IMERG-E) and forecasted precipitation from NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System Forward Processing (GEOS-FP) have shown values in global flood nowcasting and forecasting. However, few studies have comprehensively evaluated their hydrological performance let alone explored the potential value of combining them. Therefore, this study undertakes a quasi-global evaluation of their utility in real-time hydrological monitoring and 1–5-day forecasting with the Dominant River Tracing-Routing Integrated with Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Environment (DRIVE) model. The gauge-corrected IMERG Final Run precipitation estimates and corresponding hydrological simulation are used as the references. Results showed that the hit bias is the dominant error source of IMERG-E, while the false precipitation is more noticeable in GEOS-FP. In terms of hydrological performance, the GEOS-FP-driven model (DRIVE-FP) performance is close to the IMERG-E-driven model (DRIVE-E) performance on day 1, indicating that GEOS-FP could nicely fill the gap of nowcasting caused by the IMERG-E time latency. For longer lead-time forecasts, the bias tends to diminish in most regions, likely because the under- or overestimation in IMERG-E is generally offset by the distinct types of misestimation in GEOS-FP. The skillful initial hydrological conditions present outperformed forecasts in most regions, except for tropical areas where the accuracy of GEOS-FP prevails. Overall, this study provides a valuable view of the combined use of IMERG-E and GEOS-FP precipitation in the context of hydrological nowcasts and forecasts.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1525-755X , 1525-7541
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-23-0044.1
    DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-23-0044.s1
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2042176-X
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