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  • Brune, Sebastian  (3)
  • Unknown  (3)
  • 2020-2024  (3)
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  • Unknown  (3)
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  • 2020-2024  (3)
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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Data_Sheet_1.pdf
    Frontiers Media SA ; 2022
    In:  Frontiers in Marine Science Vol. 8 ( 2022-1-25)
    Details
    In: Frontiers in Marine Science, Frontiers Media SA, Vol. 8 ( 2022-1-25)
    Abstract: The Barents Sea is a key region in the Earth System and is home to highly productive marine resources. An integrated approach for strategic sustainable management of marine resources in such shelf-sea marine ecosystems requires, among many other aspects, a robust understanding of the impact of climate on local oceanic conditions. Here, using a combined observational and modelling approach, we show that decadal climatic trends associated with the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG), within the period 1960–2019, have an impact on oceanic conditions in the Barents Sea. We relate hydrographic conditions in the Barents Sea to the decadal variability of the SPG through its impact on the Atlantic Inflow via the Faroe-Shetland Channel and the Barents Sea Opening. When the SPG warms, an increase in the throughput of subtropical waters across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge is followed by an increase in the volume of Atlantic Water entering the Barents Sea. These changes are reflected in pronounced decadal trends in the sea-ice concentration and primary production in the Barents Sea, which follow the SPG after an advective delay of 4–5 years. This impact of the SPG on sea-ice and primary production provides a dynamical explanation of the recently reported 7-year lagged statistical relationship between SPG and cod ( Gadus morhua ) biomass in the Barents Sea. Overall, these results highlight a potential for decadal ecosystem predictions in the Barents Sea.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2296-7745
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2021.778335
    DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2021.778335.s001
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2757748-X
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    Online Resource
  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Data_Sheet_1.docx
    Frontiers Media SA ; 2021
    In:  Frontiers in Marine Science Vol. 8 ( 2021-10-28)
    Details
    In: Frontiers in Marine Science, Frontiers Media SA, Vol. 8 ( 2021-10-28)
    Abstract: Predicting the ambient environmental conditions in the coming several years to one decade is of key relevance for elucidating how deep-sea habitats, like for example sponge habitats, in the North Atlantic will evolve under near-future climate change. However, it is still not well known to what extent the deep-sea environmental properties can be predicted in advance. A regional downscaling prediction system is developed to assess the potential predictability of the North Atlantic deep-sea environmental factors. The large-scale climate variability predicted with the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model with low-resolution configuration (MPI-ESM-LR) is dynamically downscaled to the North Atlantic by providing surface and lateral boundary conditions to the regional coupled physical-ecosystem model HYCOM-ECOSMO. Model results of two physical fields (temperature and salinity) and two biogeochemical fields (concentrations of silicate and oxygen) over 21 sponge habitats are taken as an example to assess the ability of the downscaling system to predict the interannual to decadal variations of the environmental properties based on ensembles of retrospective predictions over the period from 1985 to 2014. The ensemble simulations reveal skillful predictions of the environmental conditions several years in advance with distinct regional differences. In areas closely tied to large-scale climate variability and ice dynamics, both the physical and biogeochemical fields can be skillfully predicted more than 4 years ahead, while in areas under strong influence of upper oceans or open boundaries, the predictive skill for both fields is limited to a maximum of 2 years. The simulations suggest higher predictability for the biogeochemical fields than for the physical fields, which can be partly attributed to the longer persistence of the former fields. Predictability is improved by initialization in areas away from the influence of Mediterranean outflow and areas with weak coupling between the upper and deep oceans. Our study highlights the ability of the downscaling regional system to predict the environmental variations at deep-sea benthic habitats on time scales of management relevance. The downscaling system therefore will be an important part of an integrated approach towards the preservation and sustainable exploitation of the North Atlantic benthic habitats.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2296-7745
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2021.703297
    DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2021.703297.s001
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2757748-X
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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    Online Resource
  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Exploring the Potential of Forecasting Fish Distributions in the North East Atlantic With a Dynamic Earth System Model, Exemplified by the Suitable Spawning Habitat of Blue Whiting
    Frontiers Media SA ; 2022
    In:  Frontiers in Marine Science Vol. 8 ( 2022-1-28)
    Details
    In: Frontiers in Marine Science, Frontiers Media SA, Vol. 8 ( 2022-1-28)
    Abstract: Local oceanographic variability strongly influences the spawning distribution of blue whiting ( Micromesistius poutassou ). Here, we explore the potential of using a dynamic Earth System Model (ESM) to forecast the suitable spawning habitat of blue whiting to assist management. Retrospective forecasts of temperature and salinity with the Max Planck Institute ESM (MPI-ESM) show significant skill within blue whiting’s spawning region and spawning depth (250–600 m) during the peak months of spawning. While persistence forecasts perform well at shorter lead times (≤2 years), retrospective forecasts with MPI-ESM are clearly more skilful than persistence in predicting salinity at longer lead times. Our results indicate that retrospective forecasts of the suitable spawning habitat of blue whiting based on predicted salinity outperform those based on calibrated species distribution models. In particular, we find high predictive skill for the suitable spawning habitat based on salinity predictions around one year ahead in the area of Rockall-Hatton Plateau. Our approach shows that retrospective forecasts with MPI-ESM show a better ability to differentiate between the presence and absence of suitable habitat over Rockall Plateau compared to persistence. Our study highlights that physical-biological forecasts based on ESMs could be crucial for developing distributional forecasts of marine organisms in the North East Atlantic.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2296-7745
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2021.777427
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2757748-X
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Online Resource
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