In:
Abstract and Applied Analysis, Hindawi Limited, Vol. 2014 ( 2014), p. 1-9
Abstract:
To investigate the variability of HFMD in each county of Wenzhou, a spatial-temporal ARMA model is presented, and a general Bayesian framework is given for parameter estimation. The proposed model has two advantages: (i) allowing time series to be correlated, thus it can describe the series both spatially and temporally; (ii) implementing forecast easily. Based on the HFMD data in Wenzhou, we find that HFMD had positive spatial autocorrelation and the incidence seasonal peak was between May and July. In the county-level analysis, we find that after first-order difference the spatial-temporal ARMA ( 0 , 0 ) × ( 1 , 0 ) 12 model provides an adequate fit to the data.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
1085-3375
,
1687-0409
Language:
English
Publisher:
Hindawi Limited
Publication Date:
2014
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2064801-7
SSG:
17,1
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