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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2022
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 119, No. 15 ( 2022-04-12)
    Details
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 119, No. 15 ( 2022-04-12)
    Abstract: Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org/ ) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2113561119
    RVK:
    TA 1000
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2022
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461794-8
    SSG: 11
    SSG: 12
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2023
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 120, No. 18 ( 2023-05-02)
    Details
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 120, No. 18 ( 2023-05-02)
    Abstract: Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches from decision analysis, expert judgment, and model aggregation, we convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies for a mid-sized United States county early in the pandemic. Projections from seventeen distinct models were inconsistent in magnitude but highly consistent in ranking interventions. The 6-mo-ahead aggregate projections were well in line with observed outbreaks in mid-sized US counties. The aggregate results showed that up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening, while workplace restrictions reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Rankings of interventions were consistent across public health objectives, but there was a strong trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures, and no win-win intermediate reopening strategies were identified. Between-model variation was high; the aggregate results thus provide valuable risk quantification for decision making. This approach can be applied to the evaluation of management interventions in any setting where models are used to inform decision making. This case study demonstrated the utility of our approach and was one of several multimodel efforts that laid the groundwork for the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided multiple rounds of real-time scenario projections for situational awareness and decision making to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since December 2020.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2207537120
    RVK:
    TA 1000
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 209104-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461794-8
    SSG: 11
    SSG: 12
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Synaptotagmin-11 Inhibits Synaptic Vesicle Endocytosis via Endophilin A1
    Society for Neuroscience ; 2023
    In:  The Journal of Neuroscience Vol. 43, No. 36 ( 2023-09-06), p. 6230-6248
    Details
    In: The Journal of Neuroscience, Society for Neuroscience, Vol. 43, No. 36 ( 2023-09-06), p. 6230-6248
    Abstract: Synaptic vesicle (SV) endocytosis is a critical and well-regulated process for the maintenance of neurotransmission. We previously reported that synaptotagmin-11 (Syt11), an essential non-Ca 2+ -binding Syt associated with brain diseases, inhibits neuronal endocytosis (Wang et al., 2016). Here, we found that Syt11 deficiency caused accelerated SV endocytosis and vesicle recycling under sustained stimulation and led to the abnormal membrane partition of synaptic proteins in mouse hippocampal boutons of either sex. Furthermore, our study revealed that Syt11 has direct but Ca 2+ -independent binding with endophilin A1 (EndoA1), a membrane curvature sensor and endocytic protein recruiter, with high affinity. EndoA1-knockdown significantly reversed Syt11-KO phenotype, identifying EndoA1 as a main inhibitory target of Syt11 during SV endocytosis. The N-terminus of EndoA1 and the C2B domain of Syt11 were responsible for this interaction. A peptide (amino acids 314-336) derived from the Syt11 C2B efficiently blocked Syt11–EndoA1 binding both in vitro and in vivo . Application of this peptide inhibited SV endocytosis in WT hippocampal neurons but not in EndoA1-knockdown neurons. Moreover, intracellular application of this peptide in mouse calyx of Held terminals of either sex effectively hampered both fast and slow SV endocytosis at physiological temperature. We thus propose that Syt11 ensures the precision of protein retrieval during SV endocytosis by inhibiting EndoA1 function at neuronal terminals. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Endocytosis is a key stage of synaptic vesicle (SV) recycling. SV endocytosis retrieves vesicular membrane and protein components precisely to support sustained neurotransmission. However, the molecular mechanisms underlying the regulation of SV endocytosis remain elusive. Here, we reported that Syt11-KO accelerated SV endocytosis and impaired membrane partition of synaptic proteins. EndoA1 was identified as a main inhibitory target of Syt11 during SV endocytosis. Our study reveals a novel inhibitory mechanism of SV endocytosis in preventing hyperactivation of endocytosis, potentially safeguarding the recycling of synaptic proteins during sustained neurotransmission.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0270-6474 , 1529-2401
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1523/JNEUROSCI.1348-21.2023
    Language: English
    Publisher: Society for Neuroscience
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1475274-8
    SSG: 12
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Structure of the hepatitis E virus-like particle suggests mechanisms for virus assembly and receptor binding
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2009
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 106, No. 31 ( 2009-08-04), p. 12992-12997
    Details
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, No. 31 ( 2009-08-04), p. 12992-12997
    Abstract: Hepatitis E virus (HEV), a small, non-enveloped RNA virus in the family Hepeviridae , is associated with endemic and epidemic acute viral hepatitis in developing countries. Our 3.5-Å structure of a HEV-like particle (VLP) shows that each capsid protein contains 3 linear domains that form distinct structural elements: S, the continuous capsid; P1, 3-fold protrusions; and P2, 2-fold spikes. The S domain adopts a jelly-roll fold commonly observed in small RNA viruses. The P1 and P2 domains both adopt β-barrel folds. Each domain possesses a potential polysaccharide-binding site that may function in cell-receptor binding. Sugar binding to P1 at the capsid protein interface may lead to capsid disassembly and cell entry. Structural modeling indicates that native T = 3 capsid contains flat dimers, with less curvature than those of T = 1 VLP. Our findings significantly advance the understanding of HEV molecular biology and have application to the development of vaccines and antiviral medications.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0904848106
    RVK:
    TA 1000
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2009
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 209104-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461794-8
    SSG: 11
    SSG: 12
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Fluctuating Sensorineural Hearing Loss
    S. Karger AG ; 2019
    In:  Audiology and Neurotology Vol. 24, No. 3 ( 2019), p. 109-116
    Details
    In: Audiology and Neurotology, S. Karger AG, Vol. 24, No. 3 ( 2019), p. 109-116
    Abstract: 〈 b 〉 〈 i 〉 Background: 〈 /i 〉 〈 /b 〉 Several otologic conditions can present with fluctuating sensorineural hearing loss, including Ménière’s disease, autoimmune inner ear disease, and enlarged vestibular aqueduct. Although these 3 etiologies vary greatly, distinguishing between these conditions at initial presentation can be challenging. Furthermore, initial treatment of these conditions is often similar. In this review, we discuss historical and current perspectives on diagnosis and treatment of these conditions. 〈 b 〉 〈 i 〉 Summary: 〈 /i 〉 〈 /b 〉 A literature search was performed regarding fluctuating hearing loss, and current treatment of these etiologies of fluctuating hearing loss was summarized. Immediate measures at the onset of acute hearing loss include corticosteroid therapy, while preventative and chronic therapies, which can limit disease severity and frequency, vary based on the specific condition treated. 〈 b 〉 〈 i 〉 Key Messages: 〈 /i 〉 〈 /b 〉 Fluctuating hearing loss can represent a range of pathologies, but the precise etiology may not be clear at initial presentation. Timely treatment and long-term follow-up, along with appropriate diagnostics, are necessary to optimize long-term hearing.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1420-3030 , 1421-9700
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1159/000500658
    Language: English
    Publisher: S. Karger AG
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1481979-X
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