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  • 1
    In: Global Change Biology, Wiley, Vol. 25, No. 1 ( 2019-01), p. 155-173
    Abstract: Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32‐multi‐model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low‐rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO 2 . Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO 2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by −1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of −8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1354-1013 , 1365-2486
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2020313-5
    SSG: 12
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  • 2
    In: Global Change Biology, Wiley, Vol. 26, No. 10 ( 2020-10), p. 5942-5964
    Abstract: Smallholder farmers in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low‐input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO 2 ], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi‐arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi‐arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in‐season soil water content from 2‐year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO 2 ], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (a) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO 2 ]; (b) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall; and (c) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model intercomparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low‐input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation approaches across SSA, because the impact of climate change in low input systems will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with balanced nutrient management.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1354-1013 , 1365-2486
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2020313-5
    SSG: 12
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  • 3
    In: Global Change Biology, Wiley, Vol. 25, No. 4 ( 2019-04), p. 1428-1444
    Abstract: Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre‐industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming 〉 2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre‐industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi‐crop and multi‐climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by −2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and −2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980–2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO 2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter‐annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer—India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming 〈 2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1354-1013 , 1365-2486
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2020313-5
    SSG: 12
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  • 4
    In: Global Change Biology, Wiley, Vol. 21, No. 2 ( 2015-02), p. 911-925
    Abstract: Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24–38% for the different end‐of‐season variables including grain yield ( GY ) and grain protein concentration ( GPC ). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in‐season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e‐mean) or median (e‐median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e‐median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC . The error of e‐mean and e‐median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1354-1013 , 1365-2486
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2020313-5
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  • 5
    In: Nature, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 584, No. 7822 ( 2020-08-27), p. 614-618
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0028-0836 , 1476-4687
    RVK:
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    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 120714-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1413423-8
    SSG: 11
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  • 6
    In: Science, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), Vol. 379, No. 6630 ( 2023-01-27)
    Abstract: Most analyses of land-use and land-cover change in the Amazon forest have focused on the causes and effects of deforestation. However, anthropogenic disturbances cause degradation of the remaining Amazon forest and threaten their future. Among such disturbances, the most important are edge effects (due to deforestation and the resulting habitat fragmentation), timber extraction, fire, and extreme droughts that have been intensified by human-induced climate change. We synthesize knowledge on these disturbances that lead to Amazon forest degradation, including their causes and impacts, possible future extents, and some of the interventions required to curb them. ADVANCES Analysis of existing data on the extent of fire, edge effects, and timber extraction between 2001 and 2018 reveals that 0.36 ×10 6 km 2 (5.5%) of the Amazon forest is under some form of degradation, which corresponds to 112% of the total area deforested in that period. Adding data on extreme droughts increases the estimate of total degraded area to 2.5 ×10 6 km 2 , or 38% of the remaining Amazonian forests. Estimated carbon loss from these forest disturbances ranges from 0.05 to 0.20 Pg C year −1 and is comparable to carbon loss from deforestation (0.06 to 0.21 Pg C year −1 ). Disturbances can bring about as much biodiversity loss as deforestation itself, and forests degraded by fire and timber extraction can have a 2 to 34% reduction in dry-season evapotranspiration. The underlying drivers of disturbances (e.g., agricultural expansion or demand for timber) generate material benefits for a restricted group of regional and global actors, whereas the burdens permeate across a broad range of scales and social groups ranging from nearby forest dwellers to urban residents of Andean countries. First-order 2050 projections indicate that the four main disturbances will remain a major threat and source of carbon fluxes to the atmosphere, independent of deforestation trajectories. OUTLOOK Whereas some disturbances such as edge effects can be tackled by curbing deforestation, others, like constraining the increase in extreme droughts, require additional measures, including global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Curbing degradation will also require engaging with the diverse set of actors that promote it, operationalizing effective monitoring of different disturbances, and refining policy frameworks such as REDD+. These will all be supported by rapid and multidisciplinary advances in our socioenvironmental understanding of tropical forest degradation, providing a robust platform on which to co-construct appropriate policies and programs to curb it. An overview of tropical forest degradation processes in the Amazon. Underlying drivers (a few of which are shown in gray at the bottom) stimulate disturbances (timber extraction, fire, edge effects, and extreme drought) that cause forest degradation. A satellite illustrates the attempts to estimate degradation’s spatial extent and associated carbon losses. Impacts (in red and insets) are either local—causing biodiversity losses or affecting forest-dweller livelihoods—or remote, for example, with smoke affecting people’s health in cities or causing the melting of Andean glaciers owing to black carbon deposition. Credit: Alex Argozino/Studio Argozino
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0036-8075 , 1095-9203
    RVK:
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 128410-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2066996-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2060783-0
    SSG: 11
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Oxford University Press (OUP) ; 2024
    In:  Biological Journal of the Linnean Society ( 2024-06-17)
    In: Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, Oxford University Press (OUP), ( 2024-06-17)
    Abstract: Human activities in the Anthropocene contribute to natural resource and climatic pattern shifts, which in turn affect the distributions of organisms. Currently, research efforts to understand organismal distribution patterns mainly focus on rare species, leaving common taxa to receive less attention. We constructed ecological niche models using MaxEnt to evaluate the distributions of a common urban reptile, Dekay’s brown snake (Storeria dekayi). We investigate the importance of human disturbance for the current S. dekayi distribution, the niche differentiation of the two genetic lineages of S. dekayi separated by the Mississippi River, and the potential future range shift of S. dekayi. We found no significant effect of human disturbance on current S. dekayi distribution. There was no significant evidence of niche differentiation between two lineages (eastern and western), which can possibly be attributed to their shallow genetic divergence. We also predicted a range expansion for S. dekayi in the future with anthropogenic climate change. Understanding the distribution patterns of common species is important because of the pivotal role they play in ecosystem functioning and services. We encourage more work to be conducted in the future on common and urban-dwelling species’ distributions to conserve and promote urban biodiversity and biodiversity overall.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0024-4066 , 1095-8312
    Language: English
    Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
    Publication Date: 2024
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461865-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 220623-7
    SSG: 12
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  • 8
    In: Journal of Cell Biology, Rockefeller University Press, Vol. 207, No. 4 ( 2014-11-24), p. 499-516
    Abstract: Cytoplasmic dynein 1 (dynein) is a minus end–directed microtubule motor protein with many cellular functions, including during cell division. The role of the light intermediate chains (LICs; DYNC1LI1 and 2) within the complex is poorly understood. In this paper, we have used small interfering RNAs or morpholino oligonucleotides to deplete the LICs in human cell lines and Xenopus laevis early embryos to dissect the LICs’ role in cell division. We show that although dynein lacking LICs drives microtubule gliding at normal rates, the LICs are required for the formation and maintenance of a bipolar spindle. Multipolar spindles with poles that contain single centrioles were formed in cells lacking LICs, indicating that they are needed for maintaining centrosome integrity. The formation of multipolar spindles via centrosome splitting after LIC depletion could be rescued by inhibiting Eg5. This suggests a novel role for the dynein complex, counteracted by Eg5, in the maintenance of centriole cohesion during mitosis.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1540-8140 , 0021-9525
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    Language: English
    Publisher: Rockefeller University Press
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1421310-2
    SSG: 12
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