Note: Intro -- Foreword -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- Contributors -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Part I Seeking the Climate Change Signal -- 1 Recent Changes in Climate and Forest Ecosystems -- 1.1 Atmospheric Environment -- 1.2 Trends and Extreme Events in Forest Ecosystems -- 1.3 Resilience of Ecosystems and Institutions -- References -- 2 Projected Changes in Future Climate -- 2.1 Methods for Projecting Future Climate -- 2.2 Projected Future Climate in the United States -- 2.2.1 Temperature -- 2.2.2 Precipitation -- 2.2.3 Drought -- 2.3 Sea Level Rise -- 2.4 Using Climate Projections to Estimate Effects on Forests -- References -- Part II Effects of Climatic Variability and Change -- 3 Forest Processes -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Carbon and Nutrient Cycling -- 3.2.1 Response of Forest C Cycling to Changing Environmental Conditions -- 3.2.2 Effects on Nutrient Cycling -- 3.3 Forest Hydrological Processes -- 3.3.1 Forest Evapotranspiration and Streamflow -- 3.3.2 Elevated Atmospheric CO2 -- 3.3.3 Changing Species Composition -- 3.3.4 Snowmelt -- 3.3.5 Soil Infiltration -- 3.3.6 Carbon and Water Tradeoffs -- 3.4 Tree Species Distribution -- 3.4.1 Modeling Species Distribution and Abundance -- 3.4.1.1 Species Distribution Models -- 3.4.1.2 Process Models -- 3.4.1.3 Demographic Studies -- 3.4.1.4 Dispersal and Migration Models -- 3.4.2 Assisted Migration -- 3.5 Effects of Altered Forest Processes and Functions on Ecosystem Services -- References -- 4 Disturbance Regimes and Stressors -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Wildfire -- 4.3 Insects and Pathogens -- 4.3.1 General Concepts -- 4.3.2 Climate and Biotic Disturbances -- 4.3.2.1 Bark Beetles -- -- 4.3.2.2 Defoliating Insects -- 4.3.2.3 Plant Pathogens -- 4.3.2.4 Non-native and Emerging Insects and Pathogens -- 4.3.3 Effects and Interactions with Other Disturbances. , 4.4 Invasive Plants -- 4.4.1 Introduction -- 4.4.2 Interactions Between Climate Change and Plant Invasion -- 4.4.2.1 Temperature, Precipitation, and CO2 -- 4.4.2.2 Disturbance and Resource Availability -- 4.5 Erosion, Landslides, and Precipitation Variability -- 4.5.1 Erosion and Landslides -- 4.5.2 Drought and Water Supply -- 4.6 Disturbance Interactions -- 4.6.1 Disturbances and Thresholds -- -- 4.6.2 Stress Complexes: From Conceptual to Quantitative Models -- 4.6.3 Uncertainties -- References -- 5 Climate Change and Forest Values -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Socioeconomic Context: Ownership, Values, and Institutions -- 5.2.1 Forest Ownership Patterns -- 5.2.2 Economic Contributions of Forests -- 5.2.3 Policy Context of Forest Management in Response to Climate Change -- 5.3 Rural Forests, Land-Use Change, and Climate Change -- 5.4 Trees and Climate in Urban Environments -- 5.5 Climate Change and the Wildland-Urban Interface -- 5.6 Social Interactions with Forests Under Climate Change -- 5.6.1 Natural Resource-Based Communities -- 5.6.2 Tribal Forests -- 5.6.3 Social Vulnerability and Climate Change -- 5.7 Conclusions -- References -- 6 Regional Highlights of Climate Change -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Alaska -- 6.3 Hawaii and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands -- 6.4 Northwest -- 6.5 Southwest -- 6.6 Great Plains -- 6.7 Midwest -- 6.8 Northeast -- 6.9 Southeast -- References -- Part III Responding to Climate Change -- 7 Managing Carbon -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Status and Trends in Forest-Related C -- 7.3 Monitoring and Evaluating Effects of C Management -- 7.4 Carbon Mitigation Strategies -- 7.4.1 Land Use Change: Afforestation, Avoiding Deforestation, and Urban Forestry -- 7.4.1.1 Afforestation -- 7.4.1.2 Avoiding Deforestation -- 7.4.1.3 Urban Forestry -- 7.5 In Situ Forest Carbon Management. , 7.5.1 Increasing Forest C by Decreasing Harvest and Protecting Large C Stocks -- 7.5.2 Managing Forest Carbon with Fuel Treatments -- 7.5.3 Increasing Forest C Stocks by Increasing Forest Growth -- 7.6 Ex Situ Forest C Management -- 7.6.1 Carbon in Forest Products -- 7.6.2 Product Substitution -- 7.6.3 Biomass Energy -- 7.7 Mitigation Strategies: Markets, Regulations, Taxes, and Incentives -- 7.7.1 Markets, Registries, and Protocols for Forest-Based Carbon Projects -- 7.7.2 Tax and Incentive Programs -- 7.8 The Role of Public Lands in C Mitigation -- References -- 8 Adapting to Climate Change -- 8.1 Principles for Forest Climate Adaptation -- 8.1.1 Adaptation Planning and Implementation -- 8.1.2 Education and Training -- 8.1.3 Science-Management Partnerships -- 8.1.4 Risk and Uncertainty -- 8.1.5 Toolkit Approach -- 8.1.6 No-Regrets Decision Making -- 8.1.7 Flexibility and Adaptive Learning -- 8.1.8 Mixed-Models Approach -- 8.1.9 Integration with Other Priorities and Forest Management Objectives -- 8.2 The Context for Adaptation -- 8.3 The Adaptation Process -- 8.3.1 Overview of Forest Adaptation Strategies -- 8.3.2 Strategic Steps for Adaptation -- 8.4 Tools and Resources for Adaptation and Implementation -- 8.5 Institutional Responses -- 8.5.1 U.S. Forest Service -- 8.5.2 U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) -- 8.5.3 Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment (RISA) -- 8.5.4 State and Local Institutions -- 8.5.4.1 Western Governors' Association (WGA) -- 8.5.4.2 Washington State Climate Response Strategy -- 8.5.4.3 Minnesota State Climate Response -- 8.5.4.4 North Carolina State Climate Response -- 8.5.4.5 State University and Academic Responses -- 8.5.5 Industrial Forestry -- 8.5.6 Native American Tribes and Nations -- 8.5.7 Nongovernmental Organizations -- 8.5.7.1 Pacific Forest Trust (PFT) -- 8.5.7.2 The Nature Conservancy (TNC). , 8.5.7.3 Trust for Public Land (TPL) -- 8.5.7.4 The Wilderness Society (TWS) -- 8.5.8 Ski Industry -- 8.6 Regional Responses -- 8.6.1 Western United States -- 8.6.1.1 Olympic National Forest/Olympic National Park (ONFP), Washington -- 8.6.1.2 Inyo National Forest and Devils Postpile National Monument, California -- 8.6.1.3 Shoshone National Forest, Wyoming -- 8.6.1.4 The Strategic Framework for Science in Support of Management in the Southern Sierra Nevada, California (SFS) -- 8.6.2 Southern United States -- 8.6.3 Northern United States -- 8.6.4 National Example-Watershed Vulnerability Assessment -- 8.7 Assessment: Challenges and Opportunities -- 8.7.1 Assessing Adaptation Response -- 8.7.2 Adaptation Challenges -- 8.7.2.1 Education, Awareness, and Empowerment -- 8.7.2.2 Policy, Planning, and Regulations -- 8.7.2.3 Monitoring and Adaptive Management -- 8.7.2.4 Financial Barriers -- 8.7.3 A Vision for Climate Smart Forest Management -- References -- 9 Risk Assessment -- 9.1 A Risk-Based Framework -- 9.2 Risk Case Studies -- 9.2.1 Water Resources -- 9.2.2 A Framework for Assessing Climate Change Risks to Forest Carbon Stocks -- 9.2.3 Risk Assessment for Wildfire in the Western United States -- 9.2.4 Risk Assessment for Forest Habitats: Case Study in Northern Wisconsin -- 9.2.5 Risk Assessment for Bird Species: A Case Study in Northern Wisconsin -- References -- Part IV Scientific Issues and Priorities -- 10 Research and Assessment in the Twenty-First Century -- 10.1 Improving the Accuracy and Certainty of Climate Change Science -- 10.2 Toward an Ongoing National Assessment -- 10.3 Improving Risk Assessment -- References -- Index.