Beschreibung: The recognition of the limits of resources is almost as old as the realization that our planet is a sphere leading to concerns about sustainable resources management. Water resources in particular receive grow...

Beschreibung: Local climate services become increasingly necessary in making adaptation to our changing climate more understandable and manageable. The ability of current climate information to develop and support local cli...

Beschreibung: A methodology for estimating secular daily minimum, mean and maximum (Tn, Tm and Tx) temperature records for any urbanised point of a 30-arc-second-resolution grid covering Italy is presented. It is based on the ...

Beschreibung: Local climate services become increasingly necessary in making adaptation to our changing climate more understandable and manageable. The ability of current climate information to develop and support local climate services for water resources management in close collaboration with local users of the water sector from the island of Crete is being explored. Climate modeling output ranging from event scale to decadal and centennial experiments, at hourly to monthly temporal scales and at high resolution (2 Km) to GCM spatial scales (100–250 km), are used to assess climate change impacts on water resources availability and extremes. A robust signal of temperature increase and precipitation decrease is projected for all future periods, in parallel to an increase in magnitude of extreme precipitation. Several messages could be extracted from the provider – user interaction such as the communication of basic concepts and uncertainties, user skepticism and feedback. The frequent personal contact, the communication in layman’s terms of the limitations of the climate impact modeling and the corresponding uncertainties, is the key to successful provisions of suitable information.

Beschreibung: The paper has in view the assessment of the impact of climate change on agriculture in the main agricultural region of Romania (Bărăgan Plain), by understanding the contextual socio-economic factors of agriculture in the area as a key step towards climate adaptation, but also through identifying the user needs, awareness and requirements in terms of climate information. A special attention was given to the analysis of the changes in the socio-economic and political context of Romania since 1989, the post-communist period, marked by fundamental transformations in agriculture, with collective and state property being replaced by private property. The poor development of the productive services in agriculture resulted in the degradation of land’s productive potential and the intensification the adverse effects of extreme climatic phenomena, proving a strong dependency of crop yields and productivity on climate. The mid-term (2021–2050) and long-term (2071–2100) climate variability and change of some key variables affecting crop development (air temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration), under different scenarios have been investigated in relation to the potential impacts on main crops. A set of relevant climate extreme and agro-meteorological indices was further used to estimate the potential climate change impacts on agriculture. The study was focused on the interaction with farmers, the main actors of the climate adaptation process in the area, aiming to evaluate their perception and response to climate change. The research approach was mainly done through face-to-face interviews, as farmers did not respond positively to organised meetings. An important difference was noticed in terms of adaptive capacity between the large farms with a high adaptive capacity and low subsistence farms (family-run farms), the most vulnerable category to both socio-economic and climate change. The main climate adaptation measure considered crucial by the farmers is the rehabilitation/construction of irrigation systems. The study provides useful scientific insights which could improve the understanding of farmers and decision-makers on the potential impacts of the future climate change on crops, but also to mainstream climate adaptation actions in the agriculture policy.

Beschreibung: A methodology for estimating secular daily minimum, mean and maximum (Tn, Tm and Tx) temperature records for any urbanised point of a 30-arc-second-resolution grid covering Italy is presented. It is based on the superimposition of 1961–1990 climatologies and departures from them (anomalies). The anomalies are obtained by applying inverse distance weighting to 143 Italian high-quality records, whereas the climatologies are based on a larger dataset and on the application of local weighted linear regression of temperature versus elevation.The grid-point Tn, Tm and Tx records are then used to set up secular records (period 1801–2013) of temperature-derived variables that influence Italy present-time national electricity demand. They are national averages over Italian urbanised areas of cooling degree-days (CDD), heating degree-days (HDD) and solar radiation deficit with respect to a defined threshold (S), with solar radiation estimated using daily temperature range as a proxy.The monthly and yearly sums of the daily CDD, HDD and S records are then used, alongside with a model allowing to link these variables to present-time Italy electricity demand, in order to understand the impact of climate variability and change on present-time Italian electricity demand. We find that temperature changes as the ones observed in the last two centuries are capable of altering significantly the present-time monthly profile of the electricity demand, raising (lowering) summer (winter) months contributions. The impact is higher in summer months where it exceeds 5 % of present-time Italy average monthly electricity demand, whereas the decrease of the winter demand is rather low because of a very limited use of electricity for heating. The summer and winter opposite-sign changes result globally in an increase of the yearly demand of about 5 TWh, corresponding to about 1.5-2.0 % of present-time Italy yearly electricity demand.

Beschreibung: The term “climate services” is commonly used to refer to the generation of climate information, their transformation according to user needs and the subsequent use of the information in decision making processes. More generally, the concept also involves contextualization of information and knowledge. In the following a series of examples from the marine sector is described covering the generation, transformation and the use of climate information in decision making processes while contextualization is not considered. Examples comprise applications from naval architecture, offshore wind and more generally renewable energies, shipping emissions, and tidal basin water exchange and eutrophication levels. Moreover effects of climate change on coastal flood damages and the need for coastal protection are considered. Based on the analysis of these examples it is concluded that reliable climate information in data sparse regions is urgently needed, that for many applications historical climate information may be as or even more important as future long-term projections, and that the specific needs of different sectors substantially depend on their planning horizons.

Beschreibung: On June 2, 2014, the United States Environmental Protection Agency proposed goals and guidelines aimed at lowering carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from existing power plants in the United States. Should it be successfully implemented, US power plant CO2 emissions would be reduced approximately 30 percent below 2005 levels by the year 2030. Rather than a single national reduction goal, the proposed rule specifies reduction targets unique to each US state but leaves the means by which states meet those targets, flexible to individual state conditions. Regardless of the policy mixture adopted in each US state, quantification of CO2 emissions at the level of individual power plants will be a critical need. Recent research examining power plant CO2 emissions has noted potentially large uncertainties at the individual facility level, uncertainty that remains poorly understood. At the same time, carbon scientists working on aspects of monitoring, reporting and verification of anthropogenic CO2 emissions have developed a mixture of measurement and modeling capabilities as part of the development of a “carbon monitoring system”, that could assist in assessing how well independent emissions quantification is performing currently and identify a path towards improved monitoring. Equally important is an assessment of uncertainty at the various space and time scales the EPA proposed rule implies. Application of these recent scientific capabilities to the needs of the EPA’s proposed rule could offer a cogent, near-term example of how scientific research can directly enable better decision-making. This paper provides a review of the proposed rule and what role scientific research could play in the evolution of the rulemaking and its application in the future.

Beschreibung: The recognition of the limits of resources is almost as old as the realization that our planet is a sphere leading to concerns about sustainable resources management. Water resources in particular receive growing attention given its uneven distribution in many parts of the world. Engineering solutions to address water management challenges played significant roles in the past in areas such as access to clean water and sanitation, providing water for irrigation, offering protection against floods, allowing power generation, etc. Despite their proven benefits, engineering solutions are receiving increasing criticism due to their negative environmental and societal impacts and the high cost of their implementation and operation. More reliance on ecosystem services as an alternative is often advocated as a means to achieve more sustainable water management solutions. This paper examines key water services that human societies rely on and the feasible roles that ecosystems can play in lieu of engineering solutions. The paper applies the “balanced triangle” of the planetary (abiotic), ecosystems (biotic) and human societal (anthropic) resources and assets as a basis for evaluating different water management strategies. The ultimate goal of the paper is to offer guidance for finding a better balance in deploying ecosystem-based and engineering solutions together with satisfying the needs of human societies while minimizing the impacts on the ecosystems.

Beschreibung: Background: Studying the influence of geographical factors on child growth is important, especially given the increasing interest in climate change and health in resource-poor settings and the recognized importance of growth faltering as a general marker of population health. We describe patterns in children’s weight and length velocity and relate them to seasonal and spatial factors in rural DR Congo. The study setting is a food-insecure area with a majority dependent on rain-fed subsistence farming and expected to be one of the regions most affected by climate change. Methods: We studied the effect of selected geographical factors, i.e. season, village size and distances to hospital, health center, forest, fishing grounds and market on growth of children under two years old. We calculated individual growth velocity Z-scores according to the WHO-2009 growth velocity standards for up to five successive 3-month growth periods. Associations with geographical factors were examined in multivariate mixed effects regression models. Results: For the study population of 2223 children is characterized by low nutritional status. Age and season were the only independent predictors of growth velocity in the multivariate regression analysis. Mean velocity Z-scores were already low in children aged 0-6 months for weight [-1.34 (95% CI: -1.45, -1.22)] and for length [-0.99 (95% CI: -1.13, -0.84)]. They increased with age, while Z-scores of attained growth gradually decreased. Mean growth velocities were lowest before the main harvest season with a mean improvement of 1.2 and 2.3 Z-scores for weight and length velocity thereafter. A seasonal pattern was not seen in attained growth. No relation to spatial factors was found. Conclusions: In this rural subsistence economy area, geographical factors relating to distances to food sources and health services are less important determinants than harvest season, which is the major underlying determinant of child growth in these settings.