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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-07-07
    Description: Understanding the complexity of future volcanic impacts that can be potentially induced by the large variability of volcanic hazards and the multiple dimensions of vulnerability of the increasingly interdependent and interconnected societies, requires an in-depth analysis of past events. A structured and inclusive post-event impact assessment framework is proposed and applied for the evaluation of damage and disruption on critical infrastructures caused by the eruption of the Cordón Caulle volcano (Chile) in 2011–2012. This framework is built on the forensic analysis of disasters combined with the techniques of the root cause analysis that converge in a bow-tie tool. It consists of a fault tree connected to subsequent event trees to describe the causal order of impacts. Considering the physical and systemic dimensions of vulnerability, four orders of impact have been identified: i) the first order refers to the physical damage or the primary impact on a component of the critical infrastructure; ii) the second order refers to the loss of functionality in the system due to a physical damage on key components of the system; iii) the third order refers to the systemic impact due to the interdependency and connectivity among different critical infrastructures; and iv) a higher order is related to the consequences on the main economic sectors and to social disruption that can activate an overall damage to the economy of the country or countries affected. Our study in the Argentinian Patagonia shows that the long-lasting impact of the 2011–2012 Cordón Caulle eruption is mostly due to a secondary hazard (i.e., wind remobilisation of ash), which exacerbated the primary impact affecting significantly larger areas and for longer time with respect to primary tephra deposition. In addition, systemic vulnerability, particularly the intrinsic dependencies within and among systems, played a major role in the cascading impact of the analysed communities.
    Description: This study was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (200021–163152).
    Description: Published
    Description: 645945
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: impact assessment ; volcanic eruptions ; forensic analysis ; systemic vulnerability ; cascading effects ; bow-tie approach ; 04.08. Volcanology ; 05.08. Risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2020-02-12
    Description: Basaltic volcanoes represent a very large portion of active volcanism and exhibit a wide variability in their eruptive style. The basaltic eruptive activity in fact shows either a purely effusive behavior or an explosive character, which can, rarely, also turn into violent Plinian eruptions. The most characteristic explosive activities of basaltic magmatism are represented by Strombolian eruptions and lava fountains. The study of the relationship that exists between the pre-eruptive dynamics (e.g. fractional crystallization, mixing, degassing), the chemicalphysical variations of the magma in the volcanic feeding system and the related outcomes (in terms of eruptive style and geophysical markers) at the surface has been, in the last decades, reason of numerous studies. Nonetheless, the complexity of the volcanic system and its inaccessibility to direct observations still makes it difficult to reconstruct the dynamics of the magmatic system, basing on surface observations of the eruptive activity. A challenging objective of modern volcanology is to quantitatively characterize eruptive/degassing regimes from geophysical signals (in particular seismic and infrasonic), for both research and monitoring purposes. The outcomes of the attempts made so far are still considered very uncertain because volcanoes remain inaccessible when deriving quantitative information on crucial parameters such as plumbing system geometry and magma viscosity. Therefore the realization of laboratory made by several devices, capable to scale and reproduce in a controlled way the degassing dynamics of volcanic systems and measure the relative elastic markers (seismic and acoustic), is an indispensable tool to identify reliable quantitative relationships between the geophysical signals and the related eruptive and outgassing parameters. With the Aeolus project we build an experimental laboratory for the study of degassing dynamics through analogue volcanic eruptions. In particular the laboratory is capable of 1) investigate the relationship between degassing processes and the relative seismo-acoustic signals; 2) study the effect of different degrees of irregularity (i.e. roughness of the internal surface) of volcanic conduits on the eruptive style and/or the associated seismic-acoustic signals; 3) unravel the timescales of cyclic activity at basaltic volcanoes, reproducing the foam collapse model of Jaupart and Vergniolle (1988, 1989), which explains the transition between different explosive terms of the basaltic system (e.g. Strombolian activity and lava fountains), in a range of dimensionless parameters close to the volcanic system.
    Description: Published
    Description: Parma
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Keywords: Experiments ; Degassive dynamics ; 04.08. Volcanology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Poster session
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