Description:    Although policymaking in response to the climate change threat is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions paths developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. The resulting uncertainty in temperature change and other impacts under these targets is used to illustrate three insights not obtainable from deterministic analyses: that the reduction of extreme temperature changes under emissions constraints is greater than the reduction in the median reduction; that the incremental gain from tighter constraints is not linear and depends on the target to be avoided; and that comparing median results across models can greatly understate the uncertainty in any single model. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-15 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0260-0 Authors Mort Webster, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Andrei P. Sokolov, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA John M. Reilly, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Chris E. Forest, Department of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA Sergey Paltsev, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Adam Schlosser, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Chien Wang, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA David Kicklighter, The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA, USA Marcus Sarofim, AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellow, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, USA Jerry Melillo, The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA, USA Ronald G. Prinn, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Henry D. Jacoby, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    Qingjiang River, the second largest tributary of the Yangtze River in Hubei Province, has taken on the important tasks for power generation and flood control in Hubei Province. The Qingjiang River watershed has a subtropical monsoon climate and, as a result, has dramatic diversity in its water resources. Recently, global warming and climate change have seriously affected the Qingjiang watershed’s integrated water resources management. In this article, general circulation model (GCM) and watershed hydrological models were applied to analyze the impacts of climate change on future runoff of Qingjiang Watershed. To couple the scale difference between GCM and watershed hydrological models, a statistical downscaling method based on the smooth support vector machine was used to downscale the GCM’s large-scale output. With the downscaled precipitation and evaporation, the Xin-anjiang hydrological model and HBV model were applied to predict the future runoff of Qingjiang Watershed under A2 and B2 scenarios. The preformance of the one-way coupling approach in simulating the hydrological impact of climate change in the Qingjiang watershed is evaluated, and the change trend of the future runoff of Qingjiang Watershed under the impacts of climate change is presented and discussed. Content Type Journal Article Category Original paper Pages 1-12 DOI 10.1007/s00477-011-0524-2 Authors Hua Chen, State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072 China Tiantian Xiang, School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072 China Xing Zhou, School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072 China Chong-Yu Xu, State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072 China Journal Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment Online ISSN 1436-3259 Print ISSN 1436-3240

Description:    The area of study lies at the northeastern part of Nile Delta. Global shoreline regression and sea-level rise have their own-bearing on the groundwater salinization due to seawater intrusion. A new adopted approach for vulnerability mapping using the hydrochemical investigations, geographic information system and a weighted multi-criteria decision support system (WMCDSS) was developed to determine the trend of groundwater contamination by seawater intrusion. Six thematic layers were digitally integrated and assigned different weights and rates. These have been created to comprise the most decisive criteria used for the delineation of groundwater degradation due to seawater intrusion. These criteria are represented by the total dissolved solids, well discharge, sodium adsorption ratio, hydrochemical parameter (Cl/HCO 3 ), hydraulic conductivity and water types. The WMCDSS modeling was tried, where a groundwater vulnerability map with four classes ranging from very low to high vulnerability was gained. The map pinpointed the promising localities for groundwater protection, which are almost represented by the very low or low vulnerability areas (53.69 % of the total study area). The regions having high and moderate groundwater vulnerability occupy 46.31 % of total study area, which designate to a deteriorated territory of groundwater quality, and needs special treatment and cropping pattern before use. However, the moderate groundwater vulnerability class occupies an area of about 28.77 % of the total mapped area, which highlighted the need for certain management practices to prevent the saltwater intrusion from expanding further to the south. There was a good correlation of the constructed vulnerability map with the recently gathered water quality data and hydrochemical facies evolution. The plotting of water quality data on Piper trilinear diagram revealed the evolution of freshwater into the mixing and the saline zones as an impact of seawater intrusion, which validates the model results. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s12665-012-1740-x Authors Hossam H. Elewa, National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences (NARSS), P.O. Box 1564, 23 Jozef Brows Tito St., El Nozha El-Gedida, Alf-Maskan, Cairo, 11769 Egypt Ragaa E. Shohaib, Chemistry Department, Faculty of Science, Zagazig University, Zagazig, Egypt Atef A. Qaddah, Geological Hazards Research Unit, Faculty of Earth Sciences, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia Ahmad M. Nousir, Geology Department, Faculty of Science, Zagazig University, Zagazig, Egypt Journal Environmental Earth Sciences Online ISSN 1866-6299 Print ISSN 1866-6280

Description:    Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 (RCP6) is a pathway that describes trends in long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), short-lived species, and land-use/land-cover change leading to a stabilisation of radiative forcing at 6.0 Watts per square meter (Wm −2 ) in the year 2100 without exceeding that value in prior years. Simulated with the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM), GHG emissions of RCP6 peak around 2060 and then decline through the rest of the century. The energy intensity improvement rates changes from 0.9% per year to 1.5% per year around 2060. Emissions are assumed to be reduced cost-effectively in any period through a global market for emissions permits. The exchange of CO 2 between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystem through photosynthesis and respiration are estimated with the ecosystem model. The regional emissions, except CO 2 and N 2 O, are downscaled to facilitate transfer to climate models. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-18 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0150-5 Authors Toshihiko Masui, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan Kenichi Matsumoto, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan Yasuaki Hijioka, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan Tsuguki Kinoshita, Ibaraki University, 3-21-1 Chuo, Ami, Ibaraki 300-0393, Japan Toru Nozawa, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan Sawako Ishiwatari, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan Etsushi Kato, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa, Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan P. R. Shukla, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad, 380015 India Yoshiki Yamagata, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan Mikiko Kainuma, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    Proper management of soil organic matter (SOM) is needed for maintaining soil fertility and for mitigation of the global increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and should be informed by knowledge about the sources, spatial organisation and stabilisation processes of SOM. Recently, microbial biomass residues (i.e. necromass) have been identified as a significant source of SOM. Here, we propose that cell wall envelopes of bacteria and fungi are stabilised in soil and contribute significantly to small-particulate SOM formation. This hypothesis is based on the mass balance of a soil incubation experiment with 13 C-labelled bacterial cells and on the visualisation of the microbial residues by means of scanning electron microscopy (SEM). At the end of a 224-day incubation, 50% of the biomass-derived C remained in the soil, mainly in the non-living part of SOM (40% of the added biomass C). SEM micrographs only rarely showed intact cells. Instead, organic patchy fragments of 200–500 nm size were abundant and these fragments were associated with all stages of cell envelope decay and fragmentation. Similar fragments, developed on initially clean and sterile in situ microcosms during exposure to groundwater, provide clear evidence for their formation during microbial growth and surface colonisation. Microbial cell envelope fragments thus contribute significantly to SOM formation. This origin and the related macromolecular architecture of SOM are consistent with most observations on SOM, including the abundance of microbial-derived biomarkers, the low C/N ratio, the water repellency and the stabilisation of biomolecules, which in theory should be easily degradable. Content Type Journal Article Category Synthesis and Emerging Ideas Pages 1-15 DOI 10.1007/s10533-011-9658-z Authors Anja Miltner, UFZ – Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Environmental Biotechnology, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany Petra Bombach, UFZ – Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Isotope Biogeochemistry, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany Burkhard Schmidt-Brücken, Institute of Material Science, Technische Universität Dresden, Hallwachsstr. 3, 01069 Dresden, Germany Matthias Kästner, UFZ – Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Environmental Biotechnology, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany Journal Biogeochemistry Online ISSN 1573-515X Print ISSN 0168-2563

Description:    This paper investigates changes in shoreline evolution caused by changes in wave climate. In particular, a number of nearshore wave climate scenarios corresponding to a ‘present’ (1961–1990) and a future time-slice (2071–2100) are used to drive a beach evolution model to determine monthly and seasonal statistics. To limit the number of variables, an idealised shoreline segment is adopted. The nearshore wave climate scenarios are generated from wind climate scenarios through point wave hindcast and inshore transformation. The original wind forcing comes from regional climate change model experiments of different resolutions and/or driving global climate models, representing different greenhouse-gas emission scenarios. It corresponds to a location offshore the south central coast of England. Hypothesis tests are applied to map the degree of evidence of future change in wave and shoreline statistics relative to the present. Differential statistics resulting from different global climate models and future emission scenarios are also investigated. Further, simple, fast, and straightforward methods that are capable of accommodating a great number of climate change scenarios with limited data reduction requirements are proposed to tackle the problem under consideration. The results of this study show that there are statistically significant changes in nearshore wave climate conditions and beach alignment between current and future climate scenarios. Changes are most notable during late summer for the medium-high future emission scenario and late winter for the medium-low. Despite frequent disagreement between global climate change models on the statistical significance of a change, all experiments agreed in future seasonal trends. Finally, a point of importance for coastal management, material shoreline changes are generally linked to significant changes in future wave direction rather than wave height. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-33 DOI 10.1007/s10584-010-0011-7 Authors Anna Zacharioudaki, CIMA - Centre for Marine and Environmental Research, University of the Algarve, Hidrotec-ISE, Campus da Penha, Faro, 8005-139 Portugal Dominic E. Reeve, School of Marine Science and Engineering, University of Plymouth, Drake Circus, Plymouth, Devon PL4 8AA, UK Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    This article explores how the causes and impacts of a flood event as perceived by local people shape immediate responses and future mitigation efforts in mountainous northwest Vietnam. Local flood perception is contrasted with scientific perspectives to determine whether a singular flood event will trigger adjustments in mitigation strategies in an otherwise rarely flood-affected area. We present findings from interdisciplinary research drawing on both socioeconomic and biophysical data. Evidence suggests that individual farmers’ willingness to engage in flood mitigation is curbed by the common perception that flooding is caused by the interplay of a bundle of external factors, with climatic factors and water management failures being the most prominent ones. Most farmers did not link the severity of flooding to existing land use systems, thus underlining the lack of a sense of personal responsibility among farmers for flood mitigation measures. We conclude that local governments cannot depend on there being a sufficient degree of intrinsic motivation among farmers to make them implement soil conservation techniques to mitigate future flooding. Policy makers will need to design measures to raise farmers’ awareness of the complex interplay between land use and hydrology and to enhance collective action in soil conservation by providing appropriate incentives and implementing coherent long-term strategies. Content Type Journal Article Category Original Paper Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9992-4 Authors Iven Schad, Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, Agricultural Communication and Extension, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany Petra Schmitter, Department of Plant Production and Agro-Ecology in the Tropics and Subtropics, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany Camille Saint-Macary, Department of Rural Development and Policy, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany Andreas Neef, Resource Governance and Participatory Development, Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan Marc Lamers, Department of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Biogeophysics Section, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany La Nguyen, Department of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Biogeophysics Section, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany Thomas Hilger, Department of Plant Production and Agro-Ecology in the Tropics and Subtropics, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany Volker Hoffmann, Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, Agricultural Communication and Extension, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X