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  • 1
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    Looking into the future of agriculture in a changing climate (2011)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2011-11-24
    Description: Looking into the future of agriculture raises three challenging questions: How can agriculture deal with an uncertain future? How do local vulnerabilities and global disparities respond to this uncertain future? How should we prioritise adaptation to overcome the resulting future risks? This paper analyses the broad question of how climate change science may provide some insights into these issues. The data provided for the analysis are the product of our new research on global impacts of climate change in agriculture. The questions are analysed across world regions to provide some thoughts on policy development.
    Keywords: N50 - General, International, or Comparative, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0165-1587
    Electronic ISSN: 1464-3618
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 2
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    The coseismic slip distribution of a shallow subduction fault constrained by prior information: the example of 2011 Tohoku (Mw 9.0) megathrust earthquake (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-09-11
    Description: In the literature, the inverted coseismic slip models from seismological and geodetic data for the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake portray significant discrepancies, in particular regarding the intensity and the distribution of the rupture near the trench. For a megathrust earthquake, it is difficult to discern the slip along the shallow part of the fault from the geodetic data, which are often acquired on land. In this paper, we discuss the uncertainties in the slip distribution inversion using the geodetic data for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and the Fully Bayesian Inversion method. These uncertainties are due to the prior information regarding the boundary conditions at the edges of the fault, the dip subduction angle and the smoothing operator. Using continuous GPS data from the Japan Island, the results for the rigid and free boundary conditions show that they produce remarkably different slip distributions at shallow depths, with the latter producing a large slip exceeding 30 m near the surface. These results indicate that the smoothing operator (gradient or Laplacian schemes) does not severely affect the slip pattern. To better invert the coseismic slip, we then introduce the ocean bottom GPS (OB-GPS) data, which improve the resolution of the shallow part of the fault. We obtain a near-trench slip greater than 40 m that reaches the Earth's surface, regardless of which boundary condition is used. Additionally, we show that using a mean dip angle for the fault as derived from subduction models is adequate if the goal is to invert for the general features of the slip pattern of this megathrust event.
    Keywords: Gravity, Geodesy and Tides
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 3
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    Regulation of Natural Gas in the United States, Canada, and Europe: Prospects for a Low Carbon Fuel (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-01-29
    Description: The United States and Canada have seen a competitive and technological revolution in unconventional natural gas production in the 21 st Century—dramatically lowering the price of gas and displacing high-carbon coal with low-carbon gas for power generation. This gas revolution came from an earlier revolution in the regulation of gas pipelines, which ended the obstruction of gas markets by pipeline interests. Neither revolution has spread to Europe, where increasingly protectionist EU legislation has effectively blocked competitive pipeline entry and related gas markets. As a result, unconventional gas is untapped, coal displaces gas for power generation, and oil-linked gas prices have cost EU consumers a staggering $425 billion more than their US counterparts have paid since 2009 for about the same quantity of gas. Europe faces a serious institutional challenge to adopting the kind of pipeline regulation that facilitates the competitive flow of natural gas supplies and the accompanying lower carbon emissions. ( JEL : D23, K23, L14, L51, L95, N70, Q54)
    Keywords: D23 - Organizational Behavior ; Transaction Costs ; Property Rights, K23 - Regulated Industries and Administrative Law, L14 - Transactional Relationships ; Contracts and Reputation ; Networks, L51 - Economics of Regulation, L95 - Gas Utilities ; Pipelines ; Water Utilities, N70 - General, International, or Comparative, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 1750-6816
    Electronic ISSN: 1750-6824
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Political Science , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 4
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    A Global Perspective on the Future of Natural Gas: Resources, Trade, and Climate Constraints (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-01-29
    Description: Natural gas plays an important role in the global energy system as an input to power generation, heating, and industry. This article identifies key drivers and uncertainties for natural gas markets in the coming decades. These include the availability of natural gas from conventional and unconventional sources, the role of international trade, and the impact of climate policies. We build on model-based research as well as an up-to-date survey of natural gas resource availability. We find that natural gas is an abundant fossil fuel and that the Asia-Pacific region will be most important in future global natural gas markets, especially under stringent international climate change mitigation. This means that an increasingly large share of future natural gas trade flows and infrastructure expansions will be directed to the Asia-Pacific region and that the role of liquefied natural gas will continue to increase globally. ( JEL : C61, L71, Q33, Q37, Q54)
    Keywords: C61 - Optimization Techniques ; Programming Models ; Dynamic Analysis, L71 - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels, Q33 - Resource Booms, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 1750-6816
    Electronic ISSN: 1750-6824
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Political Science , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 5
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    A new bound constraints method for 3-D potential field data inversion using Lagrangian multipliers (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-02-19
    Description: In this paper, we present a method for incorporating prior geological information into potential field data inversion problem. As opposed to the traditional inverse algorithm, our proposed method takes full advantage of prior geological information as a constraint and thus obtains a new objective function for inversion by adding Lagrangian multipliers and slack variables to the traditional inversion method. These additional parameters can be easily solved during iterations. We used both synthetic and observed data sets to test the stability and validity of the proposed method. Our results using synthetic gravity data show that our new method predicts depth and density anomalies more efficiently and accurately than the traditional inversion method that does not include prior geological constraints. Then using observed gravity data in the Three Gorges area and geological constraint information, we obtained the density distribution of the upper and middle crust in this area thus revealing its geological structure. These results confirm the proposed method's validity and indicate its potential application for magnetism data inversion and exploration of geological structures.
    Keywords: Gravity, Geodesy and Tides
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 6
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    Desmoothing of averaged periodical signals for geodetic applications (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-04-01
    Description: In general, observations are normally considered to refer to an epoch in time, however, observations take time. During this time span temporal variations of the observable alias the measurement. Similar phenomenon can be defined in the space domain as well: data treated to refer to a geographical location often contains integrated information of the surroundings. In each case the appropriate signal content can partially be recovered by desmoothing the averaged data. The present study delivers the theoretical foundation of a desmoothing method, and suggests its use on different applications in geodesy. The theoretical formulation of the desmoothing has been derived for 1-D and 2-D signals, the latter is interpreted on a plain and also on a sphere. The presented case studies are less elaborated, but intended to demonstrate the need and usefulness of the desmoothing tool.
    Keywords: Gravity, Geodesy and Tides
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 7
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    Transient gravity perturbations induced by earthquake rupture (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-04-06
    Description: The static and transient deformations produced by earthquakes cause density perturbations which, in turn, generate immediate, long-range perturbations of the Earth's gravity field. Here, an analytical solution is derived for gravity perturbations produced by a point double-couple source in homogeneous, infinite, non-self-gravitating elastic media. The solution features transient gravity perturbations that occur at any distance from the source between the rupture onset time and the arrival time of seismic P waves, which are of potential interest for real-time earthquake source studies and early warning. An analytical solution for such prompt gravity perturbations is presented in compact form. We show that it approximates adequately the prompt gravity perturbations generated by strike-slip and dip-slip finite fault ruptures in a half-space obtained by numerical simulations based on the spectral element method. Based on the analytical solution, we estimate that the observability of prompt gravity perturbations within 10 s after rupture onset by current instruments is severely challenged by the background microseism noise but may be achieved by high-precision gravity strainmeters currently under development. Our analytical results facilitate parametric studies of the expected prompt gravity signals that could be recorded by gravity strainmeters.
    Keywords: Gravity, Geodesy and Tides
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 8
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    Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-04-14
    Description: Our article contributes to the emerging micro-level strand of the literature on the link between local variations in weather shocks and conflicts by focusing on a pixel-level analysis for North and South Sudan between 1997 and 2009. Temperature anomalies are found to strongly affect the risk of conflict, whereas the risk is expected to magnify in a range of 24–31% in the future under a median scenario. Our analysis also sheds light on the competition over natural resources, in particular water, as the main driver of such relationship in a region where pastoralism constitutes the dominant livelihood.
    Keywords: D74 - Conflict ; Conflict Resolution ; Alliances, O13 - Agriculture ; Natural Resources ; Energy ; Environment ; Other Primary Products, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming, R11 - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, and Changes
    Print ISSN: 1468-2702
    Electronic ISSN: 1468-2710
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 9
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    Depth distribution of the sedimentary basin and Moho undulation in the Yellow Sea, NE Asia interpreted by using satellite-derived gravity field (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-04-24
    Description: We interpreted the TRIDENT satellite derived gravity field to provide detailed insights into the spatial distribution of the crustal density structures in the area of the Yellow Sea. We used 3-D forward density modelling for the interpretation that incorporated constraints from existing geological and geophysical information. A gravity stripping method is used to separate out the gravity effects of different geological crustal structures. From this analysis we see that (1) the Gunsan sedimentary basin is isostatically compensated. (2) The satellite-derived Bouguer anomalies ranging from 15 to –30 x 10 –5 m s –2 are linked to basin thicknesses in the Yellow Sea. (3) The calculated Moho depth in the Yellow Sea varies from 27 km beneath the deep sedimentary basin to 34 km in the uplifted zones. (4) Moho depth calculations show two distinct areas, characterized by the deepest Moho depths and the largest crustal thicknesses in the Yellow Sea. The one region extends along the Qianliyan Uplift Zone from Jiaodong to Hongsung while the other area extends from southeastern China to Hongsung in the Korean peninsula. Compared to previous works we suggest that they are the part of the collisions zone between North and South China Blocks extending from China to the Korean peninsula via the Yellow Sea.
    Keywords: Gravity, Geodesy and Tides
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 10
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    Determining dislocation love numbers using GRACE satellite mission gravity data (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-08-22
    Description: In this study, we propose a method to determine dislocation Love numbers using co-seismic gravity changes from GRACE measurements. First, we present an observation equation to model GRACE observations taking into account the effect of ocean water mass redistribution. The L-curve method was used to determine the regulation parameter in the inversion of the geopotential dislocation Love numbers constrained by an a priori preliminary reference Earth (PREM) model. Then, the GRACE data error was estimated in the study area to evaluate the uncertainty of our inversion, and our inverted Love numbers are significantly deviated from the PREM ones even the uncertainty is considered. Finally, GRACE data observed for the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake ( M w  = 9.0) were used to estimate the gravity dislocation Love numbers, considering three different fault-slip models. The results show that the inverted dislocation Love numbers deviate from PREM model, especially for $k_{l1}^{32}$ and $k_{l0}^{33} - k_{l0}^{22}$ , which indicates that the inverted dislocation Love numbers can reflect the local structure that is different from the global average. This inconsistency is possibly because that the cold denser oceanic slab dives from the Japanese Trench into the softer asthenosphere, and then changes the local density here higher than the global average. And with these sets of Love numbers, we can invert for more accurate fault model and analyse focal rupture mechanism when some other earthquake in this area occurs in the future. This study provides a new approach to invert for dislocation Love numbers linked with local geological information.
    Keywords: Gravity, Geodesy and Tides
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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