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  • 1
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    Looking into the future of agriculture in a changing climate (2011)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2011-11-24
    Description: Looking into the future of agriculture raises three challenging questions: How can agriculture deal with an uncertain future? How do local vulnerabilities and global disparities respond to this uncertain future? How should we prioritise adaptation to overcome the resulting future risks? This paper analyses the broad question of how climate change science may provide some insights into these issues. The data provided for the analysis are the product of our new research on global impacts of climate change in agriculture. The questions are analysed across world regions to provide some thoughts on policy development.
    Keywords: N50 - General, International, or Comparative, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0165-1587
    Electronic ISSN: 1464-3618
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 2
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    Regulation of Natural Gas in the United States, Canada, and Europe: Prospects for a Low Carbon Fuel (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-01-29
    Description: The United States and Canada have seen a competitive and technological revolution in unconventional natural gas production in the 21 st Century—dramatically lowering the price of gas and displacing high-carbon coal with low-carbon gas for power generation. This gas revolution came from an earlier revolution in the regulation of gas pipelines, which ended the obstruction of gas markets by pipeline interests. Neither revolution has spread to Europe, where increasingly protectionist EU legislation has effectively blocked competitive pipeline entry and related gas markets. As a result, unconventional gas is untapped, coal displaces gas for power generation, and oil-linked gas prices have cost EU consumers a staggering $425 billion more than their US counterparts have paid since 2009 for about the same quantity of gas. Europe faces a serious institutional challenge to adopting the kind of pipeline regulation that facilitates the competitive flow of natural gas supplies and the accompanying lower carbon emissions. ( JEL : D23, K23, L14, L51, L95, N70, Q54)
    Keywords: D23 - Organizational Behavior ; Transaction Costs ; Property Rights, K23 - Regulated Industries and Administrative Law, L14 - Transactional Relationships ; Contracts and Reputation ; Networks, L51 - Economics of Regulation, L95 - Gas Utilities ; Pipelines ; Water Utilities, N70 - General, International, or Comparative, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 1750-6816
    Electronic ISSN: 1750-6824
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Political Science , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 3
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    A Global Perspective on the Future of Natural Gas: Resources, Trade, and Climate Constraints (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-01-29
    Description: Natural gas plays an important role in the global energy system as an input to power generation, heating, and industry. This article identifies key drivers and uncertainties for natural gas markets in the coming decades. These include the availability of natural gas from conventional and unconventional sources, the role of international trade, and the impact of climate policies. We build on model-based research as well as an up-to-date survey of natural gas resource availability. We find that natural gas is an abundant fossil fuel and that the Asia-Pacific region will be most important in future global natural gas markets, especially under stringent international climate change mitigation. This means that an increasingly large share of future natural gas trade flows and infrastructure expansions will be directed to the Asia-Pacific region and that the role of liquefied natural gas will continue to increase globally. ( JEL : C61, L71, Q33, Q37, Q54)
    Keywords: C61 - Optimization Techniques ; Programming Models ; Dynamic Analysis, L71 - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels, Q33 - Resource Booms, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 1750-6816
    Electronic ISSN: 1750-6824
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Political Science , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 4
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    Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-04-14
    Description: Our article contributes to the emerging micro-level strand of the literature on the link between local variations in weather shocks and conflicts by focusing on a pixel-level analysis for North and South Sudan between 1997 and 2009. Temperature anomalies are found to strongly affect the risk of conflict, whereas the risk is expected to magnify in a range of 24–31% in the future under a median scenario. Our analysis also sheds light on the competition over natural resources, in particular water, as the main driver of such relationship in a region where pastoralism constitutes the dominant livelihood.
    Keywords: D74 - Conflict ; Conflict Resolution ; Alliances, O13 - Agriculture ; Natural Resources ; Energy ; Environment ; Other Primary Products, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming, R11 - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, and Changes
    Print ISSN: 1468-2702
    Electronic ISSN: 1468-2710
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 5
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    An Introduction to the Green Paradox: The Unintended Consequences of Climate Policies (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-07-18
    Description: How important is the Green Paradox? We address this question in three ways. First, we present a simple model explaining how announcing a future climate policy may increase carbon emissions today – the Green Paradox effect. This effect is a result of fossil fuel producers increasing their extraction today as a response to a reduction in future resource rents. Second, we examine the theoretical and empirical literature to assess whether green paradoxes are likely to occur, and if they are, whether they are big enough to be of concern for policy makers. We consider several factors that affect the existence of the green paradox, including long-term extraction costs, short-term extraction capacities, the mix of policy instruments, and potential spatial carbon leakage to countries that have no climate policy. We find that these and other factors can sometimes strengthen, but mostly weaken, the case for concern about the green paradox. Third, we identify the lessons the literature offers for policy makers. We argue that in designing climate policy, policy makers need to consider the supply side of the fossil fuel market.
    Keywords: H23 - Externalities ; Redistributive Effects ; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies, Q31 - Demand and Supply, Q38 - Government Policy, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 1750-6816
    Electronic ISSN: 1750-6824
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Political Science , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 6
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    Reflections-Managing Uncertain Climates: Some Guidance for Policy Makers and Researchers (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-07-18
    Description: Climate change—and, by extension, climate policy—is beset with unknowns and unknowables. This "Reflections" article presents an overview of approaches to managing climate uncertainties, in the hopes of providing guidance for current policy decisions as well as future research. We propose the following guidance for policy makers: Treat climate change as a risk management problem; recognize that benefit-cost analysis is only the first of many steps in deciding on optimal climate policy; in assessing abatement choices, use a discount rate that declines over time; recognize the importance of framing, evidence, and connecting the dots; reward modesty. We suggest the following questions for consideration by researchers: Can we improve forecasting? Can we improve the way we address nonlinearities and possible irreversibilities? What other (sub)disciplines merit a closer look? How can we create the right incentives for updating and expanding economic damage functions and climate-economy models? What alternative decision criteria merit further exploration? What does ‘not knowing’ tell us?
    Keywords: Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming, D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    Print ISSN: 1750-6816
    Electronic ISSN: 1750-6824
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Political Science , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 7
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    Introductory Comment-The Green Paradox: A Supply-Side View of the Climate Problem (2015)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2015-07-18
    Description: Why have policies aimed at reducing the demand for carbon not succeeded in slowing down global carbon extraction and CO 2 emissions, and why have carbon prices failed to increase over the last three decades? This comment argues that this is because of the Green Paradox, that is, the anticipation of sales by resource owners who try to preempt the destruction of their markets by green policies. Reviewing some of the conditions under which strong and weak versions of the Green Paradox may emerge, it is argued that there is little hope that green replacement technologies will impose hard price constraints that would keep long-run extraction within a fixed carbon budget and that, therefore, even strong versions of the paradox cannot easily be avoided.
    Keywords: O13 - Agriculture ; Natural Resources ; Energy ; Environment ; Other Primary Products, Q32 - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming, H23 - Externalities ; Redistributive Effects ; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    Print ISSN: 1750-6816
    Electronic ISSN: 1750-6824
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Political Science , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 8
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    The Green Paradox in Open Economies: Lessons from Static and Dynamic Models (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-07-18
    Description: This article examines how, in a world with incomplete coordination among countries, well-intentioned unilateral environmental policies may actually harm the global environment. This outcome is known as the "Green Paradox." The incentives for free-riding and the challenge of achieving an effective international environmental agreement are reviewed. I examine the various channels that lead to carbon leakage in static models of open economies, and report some simulation results. This is complemented by a review of the potential for Green Paradox outcomes in dynamic open-economy models in which forward-looking firms exploit an exhaustible resource. I show that border tax adjustments can lead to Green Paradox outcomes. I also discuss priorities for future research on environmental policies in a trading world that lacks a central enforcement agency.
    Keywords: Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming, Q42 - Alternative Energy Sources
    Print ISSN: 1750-6816
    Electronic ISSN: 1750-6824
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Political Science , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 9
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    Distributional Implications of Climate Change in Rural India: A General Equilibrium Approach (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-07-10
    Description: We develop a general equilibrium framework, based on a specific-factors trade model, to quantify the medium-term household welfare impacts of global warming in rural India. Using an hedonic approach grounded in the theory combined with detailed microdata, we estimate that three decades of warming will reduce agricultural productivity in the range of 7%–13%, with the arid northwest of India especially hard hit. Our analysis shows that the proportional welfare cost of climate change is likely to be both modest and evenly distributed across percentiles of the per capita income distribution, but this latter conclusion emerges only when the flexibility of rural wages is taken into account.
    Keywords: Q17 - Agriculture in International Trade, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 10
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    Endogenous farm-type selection, endogenous irrigation, and spatial effects in Ricardian models of climate change (2016)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-02-20
    Description: In the estimation of Ricardian models the endogeneity of adaptation measures is typically ignored. In this article we propose a new estimation strategy that explicitly recognises the endogeneity of the farm type and irrigation to climate. Based on the latest census data on over 270,000 farms in Germany, we estimate a cross-sectional, spatial-IV model that decomposes the effects of climate on farm profitability into direct (unmediated) and indirect (mediated by the variables that reflect adaptation). Our results show that neglecting the endogenous nature of adaptation measures may substantially bias the magnitude of the total effect of climate on farm profitability.
    Keywords: C21 - Cross-Sectional Models ; Spatial Models ; Treatment Effect Models, C25 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models, C36- Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy, Q51 - Valuation of Environmental Effects, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0165-1587
    Electronic ISSN: 1464-3618
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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