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  • 1
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    Blackwell Publishing
    In:  Fish and Fisheries, 4 (1). pp. 25-64.
    Publication Date: 2016-04-20
    Description: Human impacts on the world's oceans have been substantial, leading to concerns about the extinction of marine taxa. We have compiled 133 local, regional and global extinctions of marine populations. There is typically a 53-year lag between the last sighting of an organism and the reported date of the extinction at whatever scale this has occurred. Most disappearances (80%) were detected using indirect historical comparative methods, which suggests that marine extinctions may have been underestimated because of low-detection power. Exploitation caused most marine losses at various scales (55%), followed closely by habitat loss (37%), while the remainder were linked to invasive species, climate change, pollution and disease. Several perceptions concerning the vulnerability of marine organisms appear to be too general and insufficiently conservative. Marine species cannot be considered less vulnerable on the basis of biological attributes such as high fecundity or large-scale dispersal characteristics. For commercially exploited species, it is often argued that economic extinction of exploited populations will occur before biological extinction, but this is not the case for non-target species caught in multispecies fisheries or species with high commercial value, especially if this value increases as species become rare. The perceived high potential for recovery, high variability and low extinction vulnerability of fish populations have been invoked to avoid listing commercial species of fishes under international threat criteria. However, we need to learn more about recovery, which may be hampered by negative population growth at small population sizes (Allee effect or depensation) or ecosystem shifts, as well as about spatial dynamics and connectivity of subpopulations before we can truly understand the nature of responses to severe depletions. The evidence suggests that fish populations do not fluctuate more than those of mammals, birds and butterflies, and that fishes may exhibit vulnerability similar to mammals, birds and butterflies. There is an urgent need for improved methods of detecting marine extinctions at various spatial scales, and for predicting the vulnerability of species.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 2
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    Unknown
    Blackwell Publishing
    In:  Blackwell Publishing, Oxford, 89 pp. ISBN 1-40511-241-7
    Publication Date: 2012-02-29
    Type: Book , PeerReviewed
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 108 Cowley Road , Oxford OX4 1JF , UK . : Blackwell Publishing
    Risk analysis 22 (2002), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 108 Cowley Road , Oxford OX4 1JF , UK . : Blackwell Publishing
    Risk analysis 22 (2002), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models are used to estimate the risks of transporting dangerous goods and to assess the merits of introducing alternative risk reduction measures for different transportation scenarios and assumptions. A comprehensive QRA model recently was developed in Europe for application to road tunnels. This model can assess the merits of a limited number of “native safety measures.” In this article, we introduce a procedure for extending its scope to include the treatment of a number of important “nonnative safety measures” of interest to tunnel operators and decisionmakers. Nonnative safety measures were not included in the original model specification. The suggested procedure makes use of expert judgment and Monte Carlo simulation methods to model uncertainty in the revised risk estimates. The results of a case study application are presented that involve the risks of transporting a given volume of flammable liquid through a 10-km road tunnel.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 108 Cowley Road , Oxford OX4 1JF , UK . : Blackwell Publishing
    Risk analysis 22 (2002), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: This article investigates how accurately experts (underwriters) and lay persons (university students) judge the risks posed by life-threatening events. Only one prior study (Slovic, Fischhoff, & Lichtenstein, 1985) has previously investigated the veracity of expert versus lay judgments of the magnitude of risk. In that study, a heterogeneous grouping of 15 experts was found to judge, using marginal estimations, a variety of risks as closer to the true annual frequencies of death than convenience samples of the lay population. In this study, we use a larger, homogenous sample of experts performing an ecologically valid task. We also ask our respondents to assess frequencies and relative frequencies directly, rather than ask for a “risk” estimate—a response mode subject to possible qualitative attributions—as was done in the Slovic et al. study. Although we find that the experts outperformed lay persons on a number of measures, the differences are small, and both groups showed similar global biases in terms of: (1) overestimating the likelihood of dying from a condition (marginal probability) and of dying from a condition given that it happens to you (conditional probability), and (2) underestimating the ratios of marginal and conditional likelihoods between pairs of potentially lethal events. In spite of these scaling problems, both groups showed quite good performance in ordering the lethal events in terms of marginal and conditional likelihoods. We discuss the nature of expertise using a framework developed by Bolger and Wright (1994), and consider whether the commonsense assumption of the superiority of expert risk assessors in making magnitude judgments of risk is, in fact, sensible.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 108 Cowley Road , Oxford OX4 1JF , UK . : Blackwell Publishing
    Risk analysis 22 (2002), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Probability models incorporating a deterministic versus stochastic infectious dose are described for estimating infection risk due to airborne pathogens that infect at low doses. Such pathogens can be occupational hazards or candidate agents for bioterrorism. Inputs include parameters for the infectious dose model, distribution parameters for ambient pathogen concentrations, the breathing rate, the duration of an exposure period, the anticipated number of exposure periods, and, if a respirator device is used, distribution parameters for respirator penetration values. Application of the models is illustrated with a hypothetical scenario involving exposure to Coccidioides immitis, a fungus present in soil in areas of the southwestern United States. Inhaling C. immitis spores causes a respiratory tract infection and is a recognized occupational hazard in jobs involving soil dust exposure in endemic areas. An uncertainty analysis is applied to risk estimation in the context of selecting respiratory protection with a desired degree of efficacy.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 108 Cowley Road , Oxford OX4 1JF , UK . : Blackwell Publishing
    Risk analysis 22 (2002), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Linear, no-threshold relationships are typically reported for time series studies of air pollution and mortality. Since regulatory standards and economic valuations typically assume some threshold level, we evaluated the fundamental question of the impact of exposure misclassification on the persistence of underlying personal-level thresholds when personal data are aggregated to the population level in the assessment of exposure-response relationships. As an example, we measured personal exposures to two particle metrics, PM2.5 and sulfate (SO42−), for a sample of lung disease patients and compared these with exposures estimated from ambient measurements. Previous work has shown that ambient:personal correlations for PM2.5 are much lower than for SO42−, suggesting that ambient PM2.5 measurements misclassify exposures to PM2.5. We then developed a method by which the measured:estimated exposure relationships for these patients were used to simulate personal exposures for a larger population and then to estimate individual-level mortality risks under different threshold assumptions. These individual risks were combined to obtain the population risk of death, thereby exhibiting the prominence (and the value) of the threshold in the relationship between risk and estimated exposure. Our results indicated that for poorly classified exposures (PM2.5 in this example) population-level thresholds were apparent at lower ambient concentrations than specified common personal thresholds, while for well-classified exposures (e.g., SO42−), the apparent thresholds were similar to these underlying personal thresholds. These results demonstrate that surrogate metrics that are not highly correlated with personal exposures obscure the presence of thresholds in epidemiological studies of larger populations, while exposure indicators that are highly correlated with personal exposures can accurately reflect underlying personal thresholds.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 108 Cowley Road , Oxford OX4 1JF , UK . : Blackwell Publishing
    Risk analysis 22 (2002), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 108 Cowley Road , Oxford OX4 1JF , UK . : Blackwell Publishing
    Risk analysis 22 (2002), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 108 Cowley Road , Oxford OX4 1JF , UK . : Blackwell Publishing
    Risk analysis 22 (2002), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Public perceptions and political debates regarding the risks and benefits of agricultural biotechnology are well documented in industrialized countries. Yet, hardly any surveys have been conducted in developing countries. The following study aims to contribute to a better understanding of stakeholder attitudes toward agricultural biotechnology in developing countries. For this purpose, stakeholder representatives in the public debates in Mexico and the Philippines were asked to complete two nearly identical questionnaires on the risks and benefits of agricultural biotechnology. A comparison of stakeholder attitudes in the Philippines and Mexico is interesting because it shows how the different political systems, cultural and ecological backgrounds, and the regional context of food and agriculture influence perceptions. In general, the results of the surveys indicate that the participants in both countries consider genetic engineering to be an important tool to address agricultural, nutritional, and environmental problems, and they do not regard transgenic foods as risky for consumers. However, they are concerned about the potential impact of such transgenic crops on their countries' rich biological diversity and do not believe that national biosafety guidelines will be implemented properly. Although the surveys show that stakeholder attitudes in the Philippines and Mexico are quite similar, they also highlight significant differences in perception often related to cultural and political aspects.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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