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    Precipitation downscaling under climate change: Recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user (2010)
    AGU
    In:  Reviews of Geophysics, 48 (3). RG3003.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-06-03
    Description: Precipitation downscaling improves the coarse resolution and poor representation of precipitation in global climate models and helps end users to assess the likely hydrological impacts of climate change. This paper integrates perspectives from meteorologists, climatologists, statisticians, and hydrologists to identify generic end user (in particular, impact modeler) needs and to discuss downscaling capabilities and gaps. End users need a reliable representation of precipitation intensities and temporal and spatial variability, as well as physical consistency, independent of region and season. In addition to presenting dynamical downscaling, we review perfect prognosis statistical downscaling, model output statistics, and weather generators, focusing on recent developments to improve the representation of space-time variability. Furthermore, evaluation techniques to assess downscaling skill are presented. Downscaling adds considerable value to projections from global climate models. Remaining gaps are uncertainties arising from sparse data; representation of extreme summer precipitation, subdaily precipitation, and full precipitation fields on fine scales; capturing changes in small-scale processes and their feedback on large scales; and errors inherited from the driving global climate model.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1029/2009RG000314
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 2
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    Constraints on fluid flow processes in the Hellenic Accretionary Complex (eastern Mediterranean Sea) from numerical modeling (2014)
    AGU
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 119 (4). pp. 3601-3626.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-07-23
    Description: The dynamics of accretionary convergent margins are severely influenced by intense deformation and fluid expulsion. To quantify the fluid pressure and fluid flow velocities in the Hellenic subduction system, we set up 2-D hydrogeological numerical models following two seismic reflection lines across the Mediterranean Ridge. These profiles bracket the along-strike variation in wedge geometry: moderate compression and a 〉4 km thick underthrust sequence in the west versus enhanced compression and 〈1 km of downgoing sediment in the center. Input parameters were obtained from preexisting geophysical data, drill cores, and new geotechnical laboratory experiments. A permeability-porosity relationship was determined by a sensitivity analysis, indicating that porosity and intrinsic permeability are small. This hampers the expulsion of fluids and leads to the build up of fluid overpressure in the deeper portion of the wedge and in the underthrust sediment. The loci of maximum fluid pressure are mainly controlled by the compactional fluid source, which generally decreases toward the backstop. However, pore pressure is still high at the decollement level at distances 〈100 km from the deformation front, either by the incorporation of low permeability evaporites or additional compaction of the wedge sediments in the two profiles. In the west, however, formation of a wide accretionary complex is facilitated by high pore pressure zones. When compared to other large accretionary complexes such as Nankai or Barbados, our results not only show broad similarities but also that near-lithostatic pore pressures may be easier to maintain in the Hellenic Arc because of accentuated collision, some underthrust evaporates, and a thicker underthrust sequence.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1002/2013JB010405
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
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