Description:    Climate change is an issue of great importance for human rights, public health, and socioeconomic equity because of its diverse consequences overall as well as its disproportionate impact on vulnerable and socially marginalized populations. Vulnerability to climate change is determined by a community’s ability to anticipate, cope with, resist, and recover from the impact of major weather events. Climate change will affect industrial and agricultural sectors, as well as transportation, health, and energy infrastructure. These shifts will have significant health and economic consequences for diverse communities throughout California. Without proactive policies to address these equity concerns, climate change will likely reinforce and amplify current as well as future socioeconomic disparities, leaving low-income, minority, and politically marginalized groups with fewer economic opportunities and more environmental and health burdens. This review explores the disproportionate impacts of climate change on vulnerable groups in California and investigates the costs and benefits of the climate change mitigation strategies specified for implementation in the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32). Lastly, knowledge gaps, future research priorities, and policy implications are identified. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0310-7 Authors Seth B. Shonkoff, Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, Division of Society and Environment, University of California, Berkeley, 137 Mulford Hall, MC 3144, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA Rachel Morello-Frosch, Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management & School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, 137 Mulford Hall, MC 3114, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA Manuel Pastor, Departments of Geography and American Studies and Ethnicity, University of Southern California, 3620 S. Vermont Ave, KAP-462, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0255, USA James Sadd, Department of Environmental Science and Geology, Occidental College, 1600 Campus Rd., Los Angeles, CA 90041, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    The tree species composition of a forested landscape may respond to climate change through two primary successional mechanisms: (1) colonization of suitable habitats and (2) competitive dynamics of established species. In this study, we assessed the relative importance of competition and colonization in forest landscape response (as measured by the forest type composition change) to global climatic change. Specifically, we simulated shifts in forest composition within the Boundary Waters Canoe Area of northern Minnesota during the period 2000–2400  AD . We coupled a forest ecosystem process model, PnET-II, and a spatially dynamic forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, to simulate landscape change. The relative ability of 13 tree species to colonize suitable habitat was represented by the probability of establishment or recruitment. The relative competitive ability was represented by the aboveground net primary production. Both competitive and colonization abilities changed over time in response to climatic change. Our results showed that, given only moderate-frequent windthrow (rotation period = 500 years) and fire disturbances (rotation period = 300 years), competition is relatively more important for the short-term (〈100 years) compositional response to climatic change. For longer-term forest landscape response (〉100 years), colonization became relatively more important. However, if more frequent fire disturbances were simulated, then colonization is the dominant process from the beginning of the simulations. Our results suggest that the disturbance regime will affect the relative strengths of successional drivers, the understanding of which is critical for future prediction of forest landscape response to global climatic change. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-31 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0098-5 Authors Chonggang Xu, Division of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87544, USA George Z. Gertner, Department of Natural Resources & Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois, W-523 Turner Hall, MC-047, 1102 South Goodwin Ave, Urbana, IL 61801, USA Robert M. Scheller, Environmental Science and Management, Portland State University, P.O. Box 751, Portland, OR 97207, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    This paper explores two issues that have been receiving increasing attention in recent decades, climate change adaptation and natural disaster risk reduction. An examination of the similarities and differences between them reveals important linkages but also significant differences, including the spectrum of threats, time and spatial scales, the importance of local versus global processes, how risks are perceived, and degree of uncertainty. Using a risk perspective to analyze these issues, preferential strategies emerge related to choices of being proactive, reactive, or emphasizing risk management as opposed to the precautionary principle. The policy implications of this analysis are then explored, using Canada as a case study. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-15 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0259-6 Authors David Etkin, Disaster and Emergency Management, Faculty of Liberal Arts and Professional Studies, York University, 4700 Keele St, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M3J 1P3 J. Medalye, Political Science, Faculty of Liberal Arts & Professional Studies, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada K. Higuchi, Faculty of Environmental Studies, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description: The field of ecoinformatics provides concepts, methods and standards to guide management and analysis of ecological data with particular emphasis on exploration of co-occurrences of organisms and their linkage to environmental conditions and taxon attributes. In this editorial, introducing the Special Feature ‘Ecoinformatics and global change’, we reflect on the development of ecoinformatics and explore its importance for future global change research with special focus on vegetation-plot data. We show how papers in this Special Feature illustrate important directions and approaches in this emerging field. We suggest that ecoinformatics has the potential to make profound contributions to pure and applied sciences, and that the analyses, databases, meta-databases, data exchange formats and analytical tools presented in this Special Feature advance this approach to vegetation science and illustrate and address important open questions. We conclude by describing important future directions for the development of the field including incentives for data sharing, creation of tools for more robust statistical analysis, utilities for integration of data that conform to divergent taxonomic standards, and databases that provide detailed plot-specific data so as to allow users to find and access data appropriate to their research needs.

Description: Questions: What are the most likely environmental drivers for compositional herb layer changes as indicated by trait differences between winner and loser species? Location: Weser-Elbe region (NW Germany). Methods: We resurveyed the herb layer communities of ancient forest patches on base-rich sites of 175 semi-permanent plots. Species traits were tested for their ability to discriminate between winner and loser species using logistic regression analyses and deviance partitioning. Results: Of 115 species tested, 31 were identified as winner species and 30 as loser species. Winner species had higher seed longevity, flowered later in the season and more often had an oceanic distribution compared to loser species. Loser species tended to have a higher specific leaf area, were more susceptible to deer browsing and had a performance optimum at higher soil pH compared to winner species. The loser species also represented several ancient forest and threatened species. Deviance partitioning indicated that local drivers (i.e. disturbance due to forest management) were primarily responsible for the species shifts, while regional drivers (i.e. browsing pressure and acidification from atmospheric deposition) and global drivers (i.e. climate warming) had moderate effects. There was no evidence that canopy closure, drainage or eutrophication contributed to herb layer changes. Conclusions: The relative importance of the different drivers as indicated by the winner and loser species differs from that found in previous long-term studies. Relating species traits to species performance is a valuable tool that provides insight into the environmental drivers that are most likely responsible for herb layer changes.

Description: Tropical forests are biologically diverse ecosystems that play important roles in the carbon cycle and maintenance of global biodiversity. Understanding how tropical forests respond to environmental changes is important, as changes in carbon storage can modulate the rate and magnitude of climate change. Applying an ecoinformatics approach for managing long-term forest inventory plot data, where individual trees are tracked over time, facilitates regional and cross-continental forest research to evaluate changes in taxonomic composition, growth, recruitment and mortality rates, and carbon and biomass stocks. We developed ForestPlots.net as a secure, online inventory data repository and to facilitate data management of long-term tropical forest plots to promote scientific collaborations among independent researchers. The key novel features of the database are: (a) a design that efficiently deals with time-series data; (b) data management tools to assess potential errors; and (c) a query library to generate outputs (e.g. biomass and carbon stock changes over time).

Description:    Although policymaking in response to the climate change threat is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions paths developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. The resulting uncertainty in temperature change and other impacts under these targets is used to illustrate three insights not obtainable from deterministic analyses: that the reduction of extreme temperature changes under emissions constraints is greater than the reduction in the median reduction; that the incremental gain from tighter constraints is not linear and depends on the target to be avoided; and that comparing median results across models can greatly understate the uncertainty in any single model. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-15 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0260-0 Authors Mort Webster, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Andrei P. Sokolov, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA John M. Reilly, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Chris E. Forest, Department of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA Sergey Paltsev, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Adam Schlosser, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Chien Wang, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA David Kicklighter, The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA, USA Marcus Sarofim, AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellow, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, USA Jerry Melillo, The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA, USA Ronald G. Prinn, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Henry D. Jacoby, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description: Questions The study of naturally discontinuous forest systems could help further our understanding of the relative roles of abiotic factors and spatial connectivity in influencing species turnover and plant metacommunity structure compared to continuous forest formations where local communities are often arbitrarily defined and where ‘mass effects’ and source-sink dynamics tend to confound the roles of dispersal and environment. Here we study a tropical montane landscape where old-growth evergreen forest occurs as patchy formations in a matrix of natural grasslands, to test the influence of environment and connectivity on species turnover and woody plant metacommunity structure . Location The study area consists of the western and southern regions of the Upper Nilgiri Plateau in the Western Ghats of Southern India, a global biodiversity hotspot . Methods We sampled 85 vegetation plots located across a 600 km2 landscape, assembled environmental data, constructed contrasting spatial connectivity models, including models for the effects of topography on structural connectivity, and used RDA-based variation partitioning to assess the relative influence of environment and space on woody plant metacommunity structure . Results Considering several environmental and multi-scale spatial predictors, we could explain half the variation in plant community structure. Environmental and habitat factors such as precipitation, temperature seasonality, elevation, fragment size and landscape context play a dominant role and explain 42% of variation. Spatial predictors based on Euclidean distance performed better than those that accounted for topographical resistance. Spatial predictors accounted for only 9% of the variation in plant metacommunity structure . Conclusion Our results support the species sorting paradigm of metacommunity structure, as abiotic effects and biotic interactions play dominant roles in influencing community structure and species turnover in these old growth forests with a comparatively small influence of spatial connectivity. Effective management of woody species diversity would therefore require conservation of these forests across the range of environmental conditions under which they occur . This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Questions As biodiversity losses increase due to global change and human-induced habitat destruction, the relationships between plant traits and ecosystem properties can provide a new level of understanding ecosystem complexity. Using a functional response–effect approach, we show that multiple components of the carbon cycle are determined by a few plant traits, which in turn are strongly affected by environmental conditions. Location Salt marshes, northwest Germany. Methods We explored responses of morphological, chemical and biomass-related plant traits to environmental drivers and examined their effects on carbon cycle properties, i.e. above-ground biomass, above-ground net primary productivity and decomposition. The combined analysis between environmental parameters, functional traits and ecosystem properties used structural equation modelling (SEM). Results Important response and effect traits were leaf dry matter content (LDMC) and below-ground dry mass (BDM, responding to groundwater level and salinity) and leaf C:N ratio (responding to inundation frequency). Inundation and salinity led to increased allocation to below-ground biomass and salt stress adaptation in leaves, which translated into increased decomposition rates. Release from these abiotic controls resulted in standing biomass accumulation, which was controlled by LDMC and canopy height as key traits. Conclusions These findings demonstrate the interacting effects of non-consumable environmental factors and soil resources on morphological, chemical and biomass traits, which affected carbon cycle properties. Loss of species from the community has the potential to change the relationships between environment and vegetation-based ecosystem properties and therefore elicit effects on the multifunctionality of the entire and adjacent ecosystems. Studying relationships between plant traits and ecosystem properties can provide new insight into ecosystem complexity. We ask how plant species traits respond to environmental conditions and how key effect traits determine carbon related ecosystem properties in salt marshes of NW-Germany. Our study reveals interacting effects of environmental factors on morphological, chemical and biomass traits and gives recommendations for conservation management.

Description:    Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 (RCP6) is a pathway that describes trends in long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), short-lived species, and land-use/land-cover change leading to a stabilisation of radiative forcing at 6.0 Watts per square meter (Wm −2 ) in the year 2100 without exceeding that value in prior years. Simulated with the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM), GHG emissions of RCP6 peak around 2060 and then decline through the rest of the century. The energy intensity improvement rates changes from 0.9% per year to 1.5% per year around 2060. Emissions are assumed to be reduced cost-effectively in any period through a global market for emissions permits. The exchange of CO 2 between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystem through photosynthesis and respiration are estimated with the ecosystem model. The regional emissions, except CO 2 and N 2 O, are downscaled to facilitate transfer to climate models. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-18 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0150-5 Authors Toshihiko Masui, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan Kenichi Matsumoto, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan Yasuaki Hijioka, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan Tsuguki Kinoshita, Ibaraki University, 3-21-1 Chuo, Ami, Ibaraki 300-0393, Japan Toru Nozawa, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan Sawako Ishiwatari, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan Etsushi Kato, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa, Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan P. R. Shukla, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad, 380015 India Yoshiki Yamagata, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan Mikiko Kainuma, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009