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  • Copernicus  (471)
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  • Copernicus  (471)
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  • 1
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    Thermodynamics of saline and fresh water mixing in estuaries (2018)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-03-14
    Description: Thermodynamics of saline and fresh water mixing in estuaries Zhilin Zhang and Hubert H. G. Savenije Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 241-247, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-241-2018, 2018 This paper presents a new equation for the dispersion of salinity in alluvial estuaries based on the maximum power concept. The new equation is physically based and replaces previous empirical equations. It is very useful for application in practice because in contrast to previous methods it no longer requires a calibration parameter, turning the method into a predictive method. The paper presents successful applications in more than 23 estuaries in different parts of the world.
    Print ISSN: 2190-4979
    Electronic ISSN: 2190-4987
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of The European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 2
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    Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change (2018)
    Copernicus
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    Publication Date: 2018-03-14
    Description: Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change Peter Greve, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 227-240, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-227-2018, 2018 Assessing projected hydroclimatological changes is crucial, but associated with large uncertainties. We statistically assess here the response of precipitation and water availability to global temperature change, enabling us to estimate the significance of drying/wetting tendencies under anthropogenic climate change. We further show that opting for a 1.5 K warming target just slightly influences the mean response but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes.
    Print ISSN: 2190-4979
    Electronic ISSN: 2190-4987
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of The European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 3
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    Using Network Theory and Machine Learning to predict El Niño (2018)
    Copernicus
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    Publication Date: 2018-03-14
    Description: Using Network Theory and Machine Learning to predict El Niño Peter D. Nooteboom, Qing Yi Feng, Cristóbal López, Emilio Hernández-García, and Henk A. Dijkstra Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-13,2018 Manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments) The prediction of the El Niño phenomenon, an increased sea surface temperature in the eastern Pacific, fascinates people for a long time. El Niño is associated with natural disasters, such as droughts and floods. Current methods can make a reliable prediction of this phenomenon up to six months ahead. However, this article presents a method which combines network theory and machine learning and predicts El Niño up to one year ahead.
    Print ISSN: 2190-4979
    Electronic ISSN: 2190-4987
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of The European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 4
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    The concurrence of atmospheric rivers and explosive cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins (2018)
    Copernicus
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    Publication Date: 2018-03-06
    Description: The concurrence of atmospheric rivers and explosive cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins Jorge Eiras-Barca, Alexandre M. Ramos, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ricardo M. Trigo, Margarida L. R. Liberato, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 91-102, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-91-2018, 2018 This paper analyses the potential role of atmospheric rivers in the explosive cyclone deepening. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis data for 1979–2011, we analyse the concurrence of atmospheric rivers and explosive cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins for the extended winter months (ONDJFM).
    Print ISSN: 2190-4979
    Electronic ISSN: 2190-4987
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of The European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 5
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    Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties (2018)
    Copernicus
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    Publication Date: 2018-03-06
    Description: Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties Jean-François Exbrayat, A. Anthony Bloom, Pete Falloon, Akihiko Ito, T. Luke Smallman, and Mathew Williams Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 153-165, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-153-2018, 2018 We use global observations of current terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) to constrain the uncertainty in large ensemble 21st century projections of NPP under a "business as usual" scenario using a skill-based multi-model averaging technique. Our results show that this procedure helps greatly reduce the uncertainty in global projections of NPP. We also identify regions where uncertainties in models and observations remain too large to confidently conclude a sign of the change of NPP.
    Print ISSN: 2190-4979
    Electronic ISSN: 2190-4987
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of The European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 6
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    A new moisture tagging capability in the Weather Research and Forecasting model: formulation, validation and application to the 2014 Great Lake-effect snowstorm (2018)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-03-06
    Description: A new moisture tagging capability in the Weather Research and Forecasting model: formulation, validation and application to the 2014 Great Lake-effect snowstorm Damián Insua-Costa and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 167-185, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-167-2018, 2018 We present here a newly implemented water vapor tracer tool into the WRF meteorological model (WRF-WVT). A detailed validation shows high accuracy, with an error of much less than 1 % in moisture traceability. As an example application, we show that for the 2014 Great Lake-effect snowstorm, above 30 % of precipitation in the regions immediately downwind originated from lake evaporation, with contributions exceeding 50 % in the areas with highest snowfall accumulations.
    Print ISSN: 2190-4979
    Electronic ISSN: 2190-4987
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of The European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 7
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    A quantitative approach to evaluating the GWP timescale through implicit discount rates (2018)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-03-06
    Description: A quantitative approach to evaluating the GWP timescale through implicit discount rates Marcus C. Sarofim and Michael R. Giordano Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-6,2018 Manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment) The 100 year GWP is the most widely used metric for comparing the climate impact of different gases such as methane and carbon dioxide. However, there have been recent arguments for the use of different timescales. This paper uses straightforward estimates of future damages to quantitatively determine the appropriate timescale as a function of how society discounts the future, and finds that the 100 year timescale is consistent with commonly used discount rates.
    Print ISSN: 2190-4979
    Electronic ISSN: 2190-4987
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of The European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 8
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    How intermittency affects the rate at which rainfall extremes respond to changes in temperature (2018)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-03-06
    Description: How intermittency affects the rate at which rainfall extremes respond to changes in temperature Marc Schleiss Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-4,2018 Manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment) The present study aims at shedding new light on the importance of intermittency and how it modulates the rate at which precipitation extremes (in current climate) depend on temperature. The analysis of 99 stations in the United States reveals that rapid increases or decreases in intermittency cause extremes to respond differently to changes in temperature than expected from Clausius–Clapeyron. A new model is proposed to help better anticipate changes across scales.
    Print ISSN: 2190-4979
    Electronic ISSN: 2190-4987
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of The European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 9
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    Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols (2018)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-03-06
    Description: Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols Michael F. Wehner, Kevin A. Reed, Burlen Loring, Dáithí Stone, and Harinarayan Krishnan Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 187-195, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-187-2018, 2018 The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios using a high-resolution global climate model. We find more frequent and intense tropical cyclones, but a reduction in weaker storms.
    Print ISSN: 2190-4979
    Electronic ISSN: 2190-4987
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of The European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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  • 10
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    Quantification of the impacts of climate change and human agricultural activities on oasis water requirements in an arid region: a case study of the Heihe River basin, China (2018)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-03-06
    Description: Quantification of the impacts of climate change and human agricultural activities on oasis water requirements in an arid region: a case study of the Heihe River basin, China Xingran Liu and Yanjun Shen Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 211-225, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-211-2018, 2018 The impacts of climate change and human activities on oasis water requirements in Heihe River basin were quantified with the methods of partial derivative and slope in this study. The results showed that the oasis water requirement increased sharply from 10.8 × 10 8 to 19.0 × 10 8  m 3 during 1986–2013. Human activities were the dominant driving forces. Changes in climate, land scale and structure contributed to the increase in water requirement at rates of 6.9, 58.1, and 25.3 %, respectively.
    Print ISSN: 2190-4979
    Electronic ISSN: 2190-4987
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of The European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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