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Alternative Trend Analysis: Half Time Series Methodology

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Abstract

This paper attempts to determine and visualize the trends by considering the value via Şen’s innovative trend analysis methodology, which has been suggested instead of the well-known approaches called Mann-Kendall (MK), Spearman’s rho (SR), Sen’s slope, and linear regression methodologies. Another attempt is to show that an additional trend approach by using half time series methodology (HTSM) including MK’s Z value, and to compare it with the innovative method. Although, Şen’s method is practical, easy and clear representation of data variation, but some information is not evident on time series. This study comprises 66-year rain gage records in Adana, İzmir, and Rize stations located in different regions of Turkey. The comparison results indicated different trend conditions for these stations. Based on this information, representative figures are obtained according to Şen’s and HTSM for the precipitation records. According to Şen’s method, Adana and Rize stations’ measurements have no trend component but İzmir data have monotonically increasing trend. HTSM results reveal some additional information on Şen’s half time series approach. Adana station time series halves include opposite trends (increasing-decreasing) detected by HTSM in spite of no trend. Different extreme cases are encountered in İzmir and Rize stations through HTSM. As a result, if the proposed method is combined with Şen’s method, better trend analysis results can be obtained for detailed interpretations.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Civil Engineering Department, Hydraulics Division, Istanbul Technical University, Maslak, 34469, Istanbul, Turkey

    Yavuz Selim Güçlü

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  1. Yavuz Selim Güçlü
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Correspondence to Yavuz Selim Güçlü.

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Güçlü, Y.S. Alternative Trend Analysis: Half Time Series Methodology. Water Resour Manage 32, 2489–2504 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-1942-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-1942-4

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