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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2018-03-14
    Description: Thermodynamics of saline and fresh water mixing in estuaries Zhilin Zhang and Hubert H. G. Savenije Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 241-247, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-241-2018, 2018 This paper presents a new equation for the dispersion of salinity in alluvial estuaries based on the maximum power concept. The new equation is physically based and replaces previous empirical equations. It is very useful for application in practice because in contrast to previous methods it no longer requires a calibration parameter, turning the method into a predictive method. The paper presents successful applications in more than 23 estuaries in different parts of the world.
    Print ISSN: 2190-4979
    Electronic ISSN: 2190-4987
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2018-03-14
    Description: Using Network Theory and Machine Learning to predict El Niño Peter D. Nooteboom, Qing Yi Feng, Cristóbal López, Emilio Hernández-García, and Henk A. Dijkstra Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-13,2018 Manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments) The prediction of the El Niño phenomenon, an increased sea surface temperature in the eastern Pacific, fascinates people for a long time. El Niño is associated with natural disasters, such as droughts and floods. Current methods can make a reliable prediction of this phenomenon up to six months ahead. However, this article presents a method which combines network theory and machine learning and predicts El Niño up to one year ahead.
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2018-03-14
    Description: Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change Peter Greve, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 227-240, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-227-2018, 2018 Assessing projected hydroclimatological changes is crucial, but associated with large uncertainties. We statistically assess here the response of precipitation and water availability to global temperature change, enabling us to estimate the significance of drying/wetting tendencies under anthropogenic climate change. We further show that opting for a 1.5 K warming target just slightly influences the mean response but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes.
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    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2018-03-06
    Description: The biomass burning contribution to climate-carbon cycle feedback Sandy P. Harrison, Patrick J. Bartlein, Victor Brovkin, Sander Houweling, Silvia Kloster, and I. Colin Prentice Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-11,2018 Manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments) Temperature exerts strong controls on the incidence and severity of fire. Warming is thus expected to increase fire-related carbon emissions, and thereby atmospheric CO 2 . But the magnitude of this feedback is very poorly known. We use a single-box model of the land biosphere to quantify this positive feedback from satellite-based estimates of biomass burning emissions for 2000–2014 CE, and from sedimentary charcoal records for the millennium before the industrial period. We derive an estimate of the centennial-scale feedback strength of 6.5 ± 3.4 ppm CO 2 per degree of land temperature increase, based on the satellite data. However, this estimate is poorly constrained, and is largely driven by the well-documented dependence of tropical deforestation and peat fires on climate variability patterns linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Palaeodata from pre-industrial times provide the opportunity to assess the fire-related climate-carbon cycle feedback over a longer period, with less pervasive human impacts. Past biomass burning can be quantified based on variations in either the concentration and isotopic composition of methane in ice cores (with assumptions about the isotopic signatures of different methane sources) or the abundances of charcoal preserved in sediments, which reflect landscape-scale changes in burnt biomass. These two data sources are shown here to be coherent with one another. The more numerous data from sedimentary charcoal, expressed as normalized anomalies (fractional deviations from the long-term mean), are then used – together with an estimate of mean biomass burning derived from methane isotope data – to infer a feedback strength of 5.6 ± 3.2 ppm CO 2 per degree of land temperature and (for a climate sensitivity of 2.8 K) a gain of 0.09 ± 0.05. This finding indicates that the positive feedback from increased fire provides a substantial contribution to the overall climate-carbon cycle feedback on centennial time scales.
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2018-03-06
    Description: Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties Nadja Herger, Gab Abramowitz, Reto Knutti, Oliver Angélil, Karsten Lehmann, and Benjamin M. Sanderson Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 135-151, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-135-2018, 2018 Users presented with large multi-model ensembles commonly use the equally weighted model mean as a best estimate, ignoring the issue of near replication of some climate models. We present an efficient and flexible tool that finds a subset of models with improved mean performance compared to the multi-model mean while at the same time maintaining the spread and addressing the problem of model interdependence. Out-of-sample skill and reliability are demonstrated using model-as-truth experiments.
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2018-03-06
    Description: A framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation Brian J. Dermody, Murugesu Sivapalan, Elke Stehfest, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Martin J. Wassen, Marc F. P. Bierkens, and Stefan C. Dekker Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 103-118, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-103-2018, 2018 Ensuring sustainable food and water security is an urgent and complex challenge. As the world becomes increasingly globalised and interdependent, food and water management policies may have unintended consequences across regions, sectors and scales. Current decision-making tools do not capture these complexities and thus miss important dynamics. We present a modelling framework to capture regional and sectoral interdependence and cross-scale feedbacks within the global food system.
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2018-03-06
    Description: Contribution of atmospheric circulation to recent off-shore sea-level variations in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea Sitar Karabil, Eduardo Zorita, and Birgit Hünicke Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 69-90, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-69-2018, 2018 We analysed the contribution of atmospheric factors to interannual off-shore sea-level variability in the Baltic Sea region. We identified a different atmospheric circulation pattern that is more closely linked to sea-level variability than the NAO. The inverse barometer effect contributes to that link in the winter and summer seasons. Freshwater flux is connected to the link in summer and net heat flux in winter.The new atmospheric-pattern-related wind forcing plays an important role in summer.
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2018-03-06
    Description: Causal dependences between the coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics over the Tropical Pacific, the North Pacific and the North Atlantic Stéphane Vannitsem and Pierre Ekelmans Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-3,2018 Manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment) The El-Nino-Southern-Oscillation phenomenon is a slow dynamics present in the coupled ocean-atmosphere tropical Pacific system which has important teleconnections with the northern extratropics. These teleconnections are usually believed to be the source of an enhanced predictability in the northern extratropics at seasonal to decadal time scales. This question is challenged by investigating the causality between these regions using an advanced technique known as Convergent Cross Mapping.
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2018-03-06
    Description: Tagging moisture sources with Lagrangian and inertial tracers: Application to intense atmospheric river events Vicente Pérez-Muñuzuri, Jorge Eiras-Barca, and Daniel Garaboa-Paz Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-8,2018 Manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment) Two Lagrangian tracers tools are evaluated for studies on atmospheric moisture sources and pathways. Usual Lagrangian methods consider the initial moisture volume to remain constant and the particle follows flow path lines exactly. In a different approach, the initial volume can be considered to depend on time as it is advected by the flow, due to thermodynamic processes. Drag and buoyancy forces must be considered then.
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2018-03-06
    Description: Assessing the Impact of a Future Volcanic Eruption on Decadal Predictions Sebastian Illing, Christopher Kadow, Holger Pohlmann, and Claudia Timmreck Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-5,2018 Manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments) The likelihood of a large volcanic eruption in the future provides the largest uncertainty concerning the evolution of the climate system on the time scale of a few years; but also an excellent opportunity to learn about the behavior of the climate system, and our models thereof. So the question emerges how predictable is the response of the climate system to future eruptions? By this we mean, to what extent will the volcanic perturbation affect decadal climate predictions and how does the pre-eruption climate state influence the impact of the volcanic signal on the predictions? To address these questions, we performed decadal forecasts with the MiKlip prediction system in the low-resolution configuration for the initialization years 2012 and 2014, which differ in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase among other things. Each forecast contains an artificial Pinatubo-like eruption starting in June of the first prediction year. For the construction of the aerosol radiative forcing, we used the global aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM in a version adapted for volcanic eruptions. We investigate the response of different climate variables, including near-surface air temperature, precipitation, frost days, and sea ice area fraction. Our results show that the average global cooling response over four years of about 0.2 K and the precipitation decrease of about 0.025 mm/day, is relatively robust throughout the different experiments and seemingly independent of the initialization state. However, on a regional scale, we find substantial differences between the initializations. The cooling effect in the North Atlantic and Europe lasts longer and the Arctic sea ice increase is stronger than in the simulations initialized in 2014. In contrast, the forecast initialized with a negative PDO shows a prolonged cooling in the North Pacific basin.
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