Description: Highlights: • We compare the simulated Arctic Ocean in 15 global ocean–sea ice models. • There is a large spread in temperature bias in the Arctic Ocean between the models. • Warm bias models have a strong temperature anomaly of inflow of Atlantic Water. • Dense outflows formed on Arctic shelves are not captured accurately in the models. In this paper we compare the simulated Arctic Ocean in 15 global ocean-sea ice models in the framework of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments, phase II (CORE-II). Most of these models are the ocean and sea-ice components of the coupled climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments. We mainly focus on the hydrography of the Arctic interior, the state of Atlantic Water layer and heat and volume transports at the gateways of the Davis Strait, the Bering Strait, the Fram Strait and the Barents Sea Opening. We found that there is a large spread in temperature in the Arctic Ocean between the models, and generally large differences compared to the observed temperature at intermediate depths. Warm bias models have a strong temperature anomaly of inflow of the Atlantic Water entering the Arctic Ocean through the Fram Strait. Another process that is not represented accurately in the CORE-II models is the formation of cold and dense water, originating on the eastern shelves. In the cold bias models, excessive cold water forms in the Barents Sea and spreads into the Arctic Ocean through the St. Anna Through. There is a large spread in the simulated mean heat and volume transports through the Fram Strait and the Barents Sea Opening. The models agree more on the decadal variability, to a large degree dictated by the common atmospheric forcing. We conclude that the CORE-II model study helps us to understand the crucial biases in the Arctic Ocean. The current coarse resolution state-of-the-art ocean models need to be improved in accurate representation of the Atlantic Water inflow into the Arctic and density currents coming from the shelves.

Description: The use of a coupled ocean/atmosphere/sea-ice model to hindcast (i.e. historical forecast) recent climate variability is described and illustrated for the cases of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shift events in the Pacific. The initialization is achieved by running the coupled model in partially coupled mode whereby global observed wind stress anomalies are used to drive the ocean/sea-ice component of the coupled model while maintaining the thermodynamic coupling between the ocean/sea-ice and atmosphere components. Here we show that hindcast experiments can successfully capture many features associated with the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shifts. For instance, hindcast experiments started from the beginning of 1976 can capture sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific and the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) throughout the 9 years following the 1976/77 climate shift, including the deepening of the Aleutian low pressure system. Hindcast experiments started from the beginning of 1998 can also capture part of the anomalous conditions during the 4 years after the 1998/99 climate. We argue that the dynamical adjustment of heat content anomalies that are present in the initial conditions in the tropics is important for the successful hindcast of the two climate shifts.

Description: Variability and trends in seasonal and interannual ice area export out of the Laptev Sea between 1992 and 2011 are investigated using satellite-based sea ice drift and concentration data. We found an average total winter (October to May) ice area transport across the northern and eastern Laptev Sea boundaries (NB and EB) of 3.48 × 10hoch5 km2. The average transport across the NB (2.87 × 10hoch5 km2)is thereby higher than across the EB (0.61 × 10hoch5 km2), with a less pronounced seasonal cycle. The total Laptev Sea ice area flux significantly increased over the last decades (0.85 × 10hoch5 km2 decade−1, p 〉 0.95), dominated by increasing export through the EB (0.55 × 10hoch5 km2 decade−1, p 〉 0.90), while the increase in export across the NB is smaller (0.3 × 10hoch5 km2 decade−1) and statistically not significant. The strong coupling between across-boundary SLP gradient and ice drift velocity indicates that monthly variations in ice area flux are primarily controlled by changes in geostrophic wind velocities, although the Laptev Sea ice circulation shows no clear relationship with large-scale atmospheric indices. Also there is no evidence of increasing wind velocities that could explain the overall positive trends in ice export. The increased transport rates are rather the consequence of a changing ice cover such as thinning and/or a decrease in concentration. The use of a back-propagation method revealed that most of the ice that is incorporated into the Transpolar Drift is formed during freeze-up and originates from the central and western part of the Laptev Sea, while the exchange with the East Siberian Sea is dominated by ice coming from the central and southeastern Laptev Sea. Furthermore, our results imply that years of high ice export in late winter (February to May) have a thinning effect on the ice cover, which in turn preconditions the occurence of negative sea ice extent anomalies in summer.

Description: A correct representation of the ice movement in an Arctic sea-ice-ocean coupled model is essential for a realistic sea-ice and ocean simulation. The aim of this study is to validate the observational and simulated sea-ice drift for the Laptev Sea Shelf region with in situ measurements from the winter of 2007/08. Several satellite remote-sensing data sets are first compared to mooring measurements and afterwards to the sea-ice drift simulated by the coupled sea-ice-ocean model. The different satellite products have a correlation to the in situ data ranging from 0.56 to 0.86. The correlations of sea-ice direction or individual drift vector components between the in situ data and the observations are high, about 0.8. Similar correlations are achieved by the model simulations. The sea-ice drift speed derived from the model and from some satellite products have only moderate correlations of about 0.6 to the in situ record. The standard errors for the satellite products and model simulations drift components are similar to the errors of the satellite products in the central Arctic and are about 0.03 m/s. The fast-ice parameterization implementation in the model was also successfully tested for its influence on the sea-ice drift. In contrast to the satellite products, the model drift simulations have a full temporal and spatial coverage and results are reliable enough to use as sea-ice drift estimates on the Laptev Sea Shelf.

Description: This study was motivated by a strong warming signal seen in mooring-based and oceanographic survey data collected in 2004 in the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean. The source of this and earlier Arctic Ocean changes lies in interactions between polar and sub-polar basins. Evidence suggests such changes are abrupt, or pulse-like, taking the form of propagating anomalies that can be traced to higher-latitudes. For example, an anomaly found in 2004 in the eastern Eurasian Basin took ∼1.5 years to propagate from the Norwegian Sea to the Fram Strait region, and additional ∼4.5–5 years to reach the Laptev Sea slope. While the causes of the observed changes will require further investigation, our conclusions are consistent with prevailing ideas suggesting the Arctic Ocean is in transition towards a new, warmer state.

Description: The Fram Strait is the main gateway for water, heat and sea-ice exchanges between the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic. The complex physical environment results in a highly variable primary production in space and time. Previous regional studies have defined key bottom-up (ice cover and stratification from melt water controlling the light availability, and wind mixing and water transport affecting the supply of nutrients) and top-down processes (heterotrophic grazing). In this study, in situ field data, remote sensing and modeling techniques were combined to investigate in detail the influence of melting sea-ice and ocean properties on the development of phytoplankton blooms in the Fram Strait region for the years 1998–2009. Satellite-retrieved chlorophyll-a concentrations from temporarily ice-free zones were validated with contextual field data. These were then integrated per month on a grid size of 20 × 20 km, resulting in 10 grids/fields. Factors tested for their influence on spatial and temporal variation of chlorophyll-a were: sea-ice concentration from satellite and sea-ice thickness, ocean stratification, water temperature and salinity time-series simulated by the ice-ocean model NAOSIM. The time series analysis for those ten ice-free fields showed a regional separation according to different physical processes affecting phytoplankton distribution. At the marginal ice zone the melting sea-ice was promoting phytoplankton growth by stratifying the water column and potentially seeding phytoplankton communities. In this zone, the highest mean chlorophyll concentration averaged for the productive season (April–August) of 0.8 mgC/m3 was observed. In the open ocean the phytoplankton variability was correlated highest to stratification formed by solar heating of the upper ocean layers. Coastal zone around Svalbard showed processes associated with the presence of coastal ice were rather suppressing than promoting the phytoplankton growth. During the twelve years of observations, chlorophyll concentrations significantly increased in the southern part of the Fram Strait, associated with an increase in sea surface temperature and a decrease in Svalbard coastal ice. Highlights • We used combination of satellite, simulated and in situ data for 1998–2009. • Stratification from sea-ice melt resulted in largest CHL at the marginal ice zone. • Stratification caused by solar warming promoted open ocean blooms. • Late retreat of Svalbard shelf ice delayed coastal blooms.