Beschreibung: Time variable gravity fields, reflecting variations of mass distribution in the system Earth is one of the key parameters to understand the changing Earth. Mass variations are caused either by redistribution of mass in, on or above the Earth's surface or by geophysical processes in the Earth's interior. The first set of observations of monthly variations of the Earth gravity field was provided by the US/German GRACE satellite mission beginning in 2002. This mission is still providing valuable information to the science community. However, as GRACE has outlived its expected lifetime, the geoscience community is currently seeking successor missions in order to maintain the long time series of climate change that was begun by GRACE. Several studies on science requirements and technical feasibility have been conducted in the recent years. These studies required a realistic model of the time variable gravity field in order to perform simulation studies on sensitivity of satellites and their instrumentation. This was the primary reason for the European Space Agency (ESA) to initiate a study on ''Monitoring and Modelling individual Sources of Mass Distribution and Transport in the Earth System by Means of Satellites''. The goal of this interdisciplinary study was to create as realistic as possible simulated time variable gravity fields based on coupled geophysical models, which could be used in the simulation processes in a controlled environment. For this purpose global atmosphere, ocean, continental hydrology and ice models were used. The coupling was performed by using consistent forcing throughout the models and by including water flow between the different domains of the Earth system. In addition gravity field changes due to solid Earth processes like continuous glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and a sudden earthquake with co-seismic and post-seismic signals were modelled. All individual model results were combined and converted to gravity field spherical harmonic series, which is the quantity commonly used to describe the Earth's global gravity field. The result of this study is a twelve-year time-series of 6-hourly time variable gravity field spherical harmonics up to degree and order 180 corresponding to a global spatial resolution of 1 degree in latitude and longitude. In this paper, we outline the input data sets and the process of combining these data sets into a coherent model of temporal gravity field changes. The resulting time series was used in some follow-on studies and is available to anybody interested.

Beschreibung: Large uncertainties remain in the current and future contribution to sea level rise from Antarctica. Climate warming may increase snowfall in the continent's interior, but enhance glacier discharge at the coast where warmer air and ocean temperatures erode the buttressing ice shelves. Here, we use satellite interferometric synthetic-aperture radar observations from 1992 to 2006 covering 85% of Antarctica's coastline to estimate the total mass flux into the ocean. We compare the mass fluxes from large drainage basin units with interior snow accumulation calculated from a regional atmospheric climate model for 1980 to 2004. In East Antarctica, small glacier losses in Wilkes Land and glacier gains at the mouths of the Filchner and Ross ice shelves combine to a near-zero loss of 4 ± 61 Gt/yr. In West Antarctica, widespread losses along the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas increased the ice sheet loss by 59% in 10 years to reach 132 ± 60 Gt/yr in 2006. In the Peninsula, losses increased by 140% to reach 60 ± 46 Gt/yr in 2006. Losses are concentrated along narrow channels occupied by outlet glaciers and are caused by ongoing and past glacier acceleration. Changes in glacier flow therefore have a significant, if not dominant impact on ice sheet mass balance.

Beschreibung: Within the last decade, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its surroundings have experienced record high surface temperatures (Mote, 2007, doi:10.1029/2007GL031976; Box et al., 2010), ice sheet melt extent (Fettweis et al., 2011, doi:10.5194/tc-5-359-2011) and record-low summer sea-ice extent (Nghiem et al., 2007, doi:10.1029/2007GL031138). Using three independent data sets, we derive, for the first time, consistent ice-mass trends and temporal variations within seven major drainage basins from gravity fields from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE; Tapley et al., 2004, doi:10.1029/2004GL019920), surface-ice velocities from Inteferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR; Rignot and Kanagaratnam, 2006, doi:10.1126/science.1121381) together with output of the regional atmospheric climate modelling (RACMO2/ GR; Ettema et al., 2009, doi:10.1029/2009GL038110), and surface-elevation changes from the Ice, cloud and land elevation satellite (ICESat; Sorensen et al., 2011, doi:10.5194/tc-5-173-2011). We show that changing ice discharge (D), surface melting and subsequent run-off (M/R) and precipitation (P) all contribute, in a complex and regionally variable interplay, to the increasingly negative mass balance of the GrIS observed within the last decade. Interannual variability in P along the northwest and west coasts of the GrIS largely explains the apparent regional mass loss increase during 2002-2010, and obscures increasing M/R and D since the 1990s. In winter 2002/2003 and 2008/2009, accumulation anomalies in the east and southeast temporarily outweighed the losses by M/R and D that prevailed during 2003-2008, and after summer 2010. Overall, for all basins of the GrIS, the decadal variability of anomalies in P, M/R and D between 1958 and 2010 (w.r.t. 1961-1990) was significantly exceeded by the regional trends observed during the GRACE period (2002-2011).

Beschreibung: A major uncertainty in determining the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet from measurements of satellite gravimetry, and to a lesser extent satellite altimetry, is the poorly known correction for the ongoing deformation of the solid Earth caused by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). In the past decade, much progress has been made in consistently modelling the ice sheet and solid Earth interactions; however, forward-modelling solutions of GIA in Antarctica remain uncertain due to the sparsity of constraints on the ice sheet evolution, as well as the Earth's rheological properties. An alternative approach towards estimating GIA is the joint inversion of multiple satellite data - namely, satellite gravimetry, satellite altimetry and GPS, which reflect, with different sensitivities, trends of recent glacial changes and GIA. Crucial to the success of this approach is the accuracy of the space-geodetic data sets. Here, we present reprocessed rates of surface-ice elevation change (Envisat/ICESat; 2003-2009), gravity field change (GRACE; 2003-2009) and bedrock uplift (GPS; 1995-2013). The data analysis is complemented by the forward-modelling of viscoelastic response functions to disc load forcing, allowing us to relate GIA-induced surface displacements with gravity changes for different rheological parameters of the solid Earth. The data and modelling results presented here form the basis for the joint inversion estimate of present-day ice-mass change and GIA in Antarctica. This paper presents the first of two contributions summarizing the work carried out within a European Space Agency funded study, REGINA, (http://www.regina-science.eu).

Beschreibung: We have produced a global dataset of ~4000 GPS vertical velocities that can be used as observational estimates of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) uplift rates. GIA is the response of the solid Earth to past ice loading, primarily, since the Last Glacial Maximum, about 20 K yrs BP. Modelling GIA is challenging because of large uncertainties in ice loading history and also the viscosity of the upper and lower mantle. GPS data contain the signature of GIA in their uplift rates but these also contain other sources of vertical land motion (VLM) such as tectonics, human and natural influences on water storage that can mask the underlying GIA signal. A novel fully-automatic strategy was developed to post-process the GPS time series and to correct for non-GIA artefacts. Before estimating vertical velocities and uncertainties, we detected outliers and jumps and corrected for atmospheric mass loading displacements. We corrected the resulting velocities for the elastic response of the solid Earth to global changes in ice sheets, glaciers, and ocean loading, as well as for changes in the Earth's rotational pole relative to the 20th century average. We then applied a spatial median filter to remove sites where local effects were dominant to leave approximately 4000 GPS sites. The resulting novel global GPS dataset shows a clean GIA signal at all post-processed stations and is suitable to investigate the behaviour of global GIA forward models. The results are transformed from a frame with its origin in the centre of mass of the total Earth's system (CM) into a frame with its origin in the centre of mass of the solid Earth (CE) before comparison with 13 global GIA forward model solutions, with best fits with Pur-6-VM5 and ICE-6G predictions. The largest discrepancies for all models were identified for Antarctica and Greenland, which may be due to either uncertain mantle rheology, ice loading history/magnitude and/or GPS errors.

Beschreibung: We present a new surface-atmospheric dataset for driving ocean–sea-ice models based on Japanese 55-year atmospheric reanalysis (JRA-55), referred to here as JRA55-do. The JRA55-do dataset aims to replace the CORE interannual forcing version 2 (hereafter called the CORE dataset), which is currently used in the framework of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs) and the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP). A major improvement in JRA55-do is the refined horizontal grid spacing (∼ 55 km) and temporal interval (3 hr). The data production method for JRA55-do essentially follows that of the CORE dataset, whereby the surface fields from an atmospheric reanalysis are adjusted relative to reference datasets. To improve the adjustment method, we use high-quality products derived from satellites and from several other atmospheric reanalysis projects, as well as feedback on the CORE dataset from the ocean modelling community. Notably, the surface air temperature and specific humidity are adjusted using multi-reanalysis ensemble means. In JRA55-do, the downwelling radiative fluxes and precipitation, which are affected by an ambiguous cloud parameterisation employed in the atmospheric model used for the reanalysis, are based on the reanalysis products. This approach represents a notable change from the CORE dataset, which imported independent observational products. Consequently, the JRA55-do dataset is more self-contained than the CORE dataset, and thus can be continually updated in near real-time. The JRA55-do dataset extends from 1958 to the present, with updates expected at least annually. This paper details the adjustments to the original JRA-55 fields, the scientific rationale for these adjustments, and the evaluation of JRA55-do. The adjustments successfully corrected the biases in the original JRA-55 fields. The globally averaged features are similar between the JRA55-do and CORE datasets, implying that JRA55-do can suitably replace the CORE dataset for use in driving global ocean–sea-ice models.

Beschreibung: We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize themechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding.

Beschreibung: Large uncertainties remain in the current and future contribution to sea level rise from Antarctica. Climate warming may increase snowfall in the continent’s interior1,2,3, but enhance glacier discharge at the coast where warmer air and ocean temperatures erode the buttressing ice shelves4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11. Here, we use satellite interferometric synthetic-aperture radar observations from 1992 to 2006 covering 85% of Antarctica’s coastline to estimate the total mass flux into the ocean. We compare the mass fluxes from large drainage basin units with interior snow accumulation calculated from a regional atmospheric climate model for 1980 to 2004. In East Antarctica, small glacier losses in Wilkes Land and glacier gains at the mouths of the Filchner and Ross ice shelves combine to a near-zero loss of 4±61 Gt yr−1. In West Antarctica, widespread losses along the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas increased the ice sheet loss by 59% in 10 years to reach 132±60 Gt yr−1 in 2006. In the Peninsula, losses increased by 140% to reach 60±46 Gt yr−1 in 2006. Losses are concentrated along narrow channels occupied by outlet glaciers and are caused by ongoing and past glacier acceleration. Changes in glacier flow therefore have a significant, if not dominant impact on ice sheet mass balance.