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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2021
    In:  Nature Climate Change Vol. 11, No. 3 ( 2021-03), p. 226-233
    Details
    In: Nature Climate Change, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 11, No. 3 ( 2021-03), p. 226-233
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1758-678X , 1758-6798
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00972-w
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2603450-5
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios
    IOP Publishing ; 2021
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 16, No. 2 ( 2021-02-01), p. 024049-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 16, No. 2 ( 2021-02-01), p. 024049-
    Abstract: Amplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the-art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a subset of bias-adjusted CMIP5 General Circulation Models to estimate the impact of different global warming scenarios (RCP2.6, 6.0, 8.5) on two modes of winter travel: overland travel days (OTDs) and ice road construction days (IRCDs). We show that OTDs decrease by on average −13% in the near future (2021–2050) and between −15% (RCP2.6) and −40% (RCP8.5) in the far future (2070–2099) compared to the reference period (1971–2000) when 173 d yr −1 are simulated across the Pan-Arctic. Regionally, we identified Eastern Siberia (Sakha (Yakutia), Khabarovsk Krai, Magadan Oblast) to be most resilient to climate change, while Alaska (USA), the Northwestern Russian regions (Yamalo, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Nenets, Komi, Khanty-Mansiy), Northern Europe and Chukotka are highly vulnerable. The change in OTDs is most pronounced during the shoulder season, particularly in autumn. The IRCDs reduce on average twice as much as the OTDs under all climate scenarios resulting in shorter operational duration. The results of the low-end global warming scenario (RCP2.6) emphasize that stringent climate mitigation policies have the potential to reduce the impact of climate change on winter mobility in the second half of the 21st century. Nevertheless, even under RCP2.6, our results suggest substantially reduced winter overland travel implying a severe threat to livelihoods of remote communities and increasing costs for resource exploration and transport across the Arctic.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abdcf2
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Climate impact emergence and flood peak synchronization projections in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna basins under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios
    IOP Publishing ; 2022
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 17, No. 9 ( 2022-09-01), p. 094036-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 17, No. 9 ( 2022-09-01), p. 094036-
    Abstract: The densely populated delta of the three river systems of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna is highly prone to floods. Potential climate change-related increases in flood intensity are therefore of major societal concern as more than 40 million people live in flood-prone areas in downstream Bangladesh. Here we report on new flood projections using a hydrological model forced by bias-adjusted ensembles of the latest-generation global climate models of CMIP6 (SSP5-8.5/SSP1-2.6) in comparison to CMIP5 (RCP8.5/RCP2.6). Results suggest increases in peak flow magnitude of 36% (16%) on average under SSP5-8.5 (SSP1-2.6), compared to 60% (17%) under RCP8.5 (RCP2.6) by 2070–2099 relative to 1971–2000. Under RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 (2070–2099), the largest increase in flood risk is projected for the Ganges watershed, where higher flood peaks become the ‘new norm’ as early as mid-2030 implying a relatively short time window for adaptation. In the Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers, the climate impact signal on peak flow emerges after 2070 (CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections). Flood peak synchronization, when annual peak flow occurs simultaneously at (at least) two rivers leading to large flooding events within Bangladesh, show a consistent increase under both projections. While the variability across the ensemble remains high, the increases in flood magnitude are robust in the study basins. Our findings emphasize the need of stringent climate mitigation policies to reduce the climate change impact on peak flows (as presented using SSP1-2.6/RCP2.6) and to subsequently minimize adverse socioeconomic impacts and adaptation costs. Considering Bangladesh’s high overall vulnerability to climate change and its downstream location, synergies between climate change adaptation and mitigation and transboundary cooperation will need to be strengthened to improve overall climate resilience and achieve sustainable development.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ca1
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 4
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    Online Resource
    Attributing observed permafrost warming in the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic climate change
    IOP Publishing ; 2022
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 17, No. 9 ( 2022-09-01), p. 095014-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 17, No. 9 ( 2022-09-01), p. 095014-
    Abstract: Permafrost temperatures are increasing globally with the potential of adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. Nonetheless, the attribution of observed permafrost warming to anthropogenic climate change has relied mostly on qualitative evidence. Here, we compare long permafrost temperature records from 15 boreholes in the northern hemisphere to simulated ground temperatures from Earth system models contributing to CMIP6 using a climate change detection and attribution approach. We show that neither pre-industrial climate variability nor natural drivers of climate change suffice to explain the observed warming in permafrost temperature averaged over all boreholes. However, simulations are consistent with observations if the effects of human emissions on the global climate system are considered. Moreover, our analysis reveals that the effect of anthropogenic climate change on permafrost temperature is detectable at some of the boreholes. Thus, the presented evidence supports the conclusion that anthropogenic climate change is the key driver of northern hemisphere permafrost warming.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8ec2
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Sensitivity of ecosystem-protected permafrost under changing boreal forest structures
    IOP Publishing ; 2021
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 16, No. 8 ( 2021-08-01), p. 084045-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 16, No. 8 ( 2021-08-01), p. 084045-
    Abstract: Boreal forests efficiently insulate underlying permafrost. The magnitude of this insulation effect is dependent on forest density and composition. A change therein modifies the energy and water fluxes within and below the canopy. The direct influence of climatic change on forests and the indirect effect through a change in permafrost dynamics lead to extensive ecosystem shifts such as a change in composition or density, which will, in turn, affect permafrost persistence. We derive future scenarios of forest density and plant functional type composition by analyzing future projections provided by the dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) under global warming scenarios. We apply a detailed permafrost-multilayer canopy model to study the spatial impact-variability of simulated future scenarios of forest densities and compositions for study sites throughout eastern Siberia. Our results show that a change in forest density has a clear effect on the ground surface temperatures (GST) and the maximum active layer thickness (ALT) at all sites, but the direction depends on local climate conditions. At two sites, higher forest density leads to a significant decrease in GSTs in the snow-free period, while leading to an increase at the warmest site. Complete forest loss leads to a deepening of the ALT up to 0.33 m and higher GSTs of over 8  ∘ C independently of local climatic conditions. Forest loss can induce both, active layer wetting up to four times or drying by 50%, depending on precipitation and soil type. Deciduous-dominated canopies reveal lower GSTs compared to evergreen stands, which will play an important factor in the spreading of evergreen taxa and permafrost persistence under warming conditions. Our study highlights that changing density and composition will significantly modify the thermal and hydrological state of the underlying permafrost. The induced soil changes will likely affect key forest functions such as the carbon pools and related feedback mechanisms such as swamping, droughts, fires, or forest loss.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac153d
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Potential impacts of climate change and regional anthropogenic activities in Central European mesoscale catchments
    Informa UK Limited ; 2014
    In:  Hydrological Sciences Journal ( 2014-10-27), p. 141217125340005-
    Details
    In: Hydrological Sciences Journal, Informa UK Limited, ( 2014-10-27), p. 141217125340005-
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0262-6667 , 2150-3435
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2014.968571
    Language: English
    Publisher: Informa UK Limited
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2180448-5
    SSG: 14
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  • 7
    Online Resource
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    Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a)
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2024
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development Vol. 17, No. 1 ( 2024-01-04), p. 1-51
    Details
    In: Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 17, No. 1 ( 2024-01-04), p. 1-51
    Abstract: Abstract. This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the first time include high-resolution observational climate forcings derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, and wind fields associated with historical tropical cyclones. The DHFs include land use patterns, population densities, information about water and agricultural management, and fishing intensities. The ISIMIP3a impact model simulations driven by these observation-based climate-related and direct human forcings are designed to test to what degree the impact models can explain observed changes in natural and human systems. In a second set of ISIMIP3a experiments the participating impact models are forced by the same DHFs but a counterfactual set of atmospheric forcings and coastal water levels where observed trends have been removed. These experiments are designed to allow for the attribution of observed changes in natural, human, and managed systems to climate change, rising CH4 and CO2 concentrations, and sea level rise according to the definition of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC AR6.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1991-9603
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2024
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2456725-5
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Impact of dumped sediment structures on hydrological modelling in the artificial Chicken Creek catchment, Germany
    Elsevier BV ; 2013
    In:  Journal of Hydrology Vol. 477 ( 2013-1), p. 189-202
    Details
    In: Journal of Hydrology, Elsevier BV, Vol. 477 ( 2013-1), p. 189-202
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0022-1694
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.11.029
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 240687-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1473173-3
    SSG: 13
    SSG: 14
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Analysis of uncertainties in the hydrological response of a model‐based climate change impact assessment in a subcatchment of the Spree River, Germany
    Wiley ; 2014
    In:  Hydrological Processes Vol. 28, No. 12 ( 2014-06-15), p. 3978-3998
    Details
    In: Hydrological Processes, Wiley, Vol. 28, No. 12 ( 2014-06-15), p. 3978-3998
    Abstract: Climate change impact assessments form the basis for the development of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. For this purpose, ensembles consisting of stepwise coupled models are generally used [emission scenario → global circulation model → downscaling approach (DA) → bias correction → impact model (hydrological model)], in which every item is affected by considerable uncertainty. The aim of the current study is (1) to analyse the uncertainty related to the choice of the DA as well as the hydrological model and its parameterization and (2) to evaluate the vulnerability of the studied catchment, a subcatchment of the highly anthropogenically impacted Spree River catchment, to hydrological change. Four different DAs are used to drive four different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (Water Balance Simulation Model developed at ETH Zürich and HBV‐light). In total, 452 simulations are carried out. The results show that all simulations compute an increase in air temperature and potential evapotranspiration. For precipitation, runoff and actual evapotranspiration, opposing trends are computed depending on the DA used to drive the hydrological models. Overall, the largest source of uncertainty can be attributed to the choice of the DA, especially regarding whether it is statistical or dynamical. The choice of the hydrological model and its parameterization is of less importance when long‐term mean annual changes are compared. The large bandwidth at the end of the modelling chain may exacerbate the formulation of suitable climate change adaption strategies on the regional scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0885-6087 , 1099-1085
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/hyp.v28.12
    DOI: 10.1002/hyp.9933
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1479953-4
    SSG: 14
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Performance evaluation of global hydrological models in six large Pan-Arctic watersheds
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2020
    In:  Climatic Change Vol. 163, No. 3 ( 2020-12), p. 1329-1351
    Details
    In: Climatic Change, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 163, No. 3 ( 2020-12), p. 1329-1351
    Abstract: Global Water Models (GWMs), which include Global Hydrological, Land Surface, and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, present valuable tools for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrological processes in the data scarce high latitudes. Here we performed a systematic model performance evaluation in six major Pan-Arctic watersheds for different hydrological indicators (monthly and seasonal discharge, extremes, trends (or lack of), and snow water equivalent (SWE)) via a novel Aggregated Performance Index (API) that is based on commonly used statistical evaluation metrics. The machine learning Boruta feature selection algorithm was used to evaluate the explanatory power of the API attributes. Our results show that the majority of the nine GWMs included in the study exhibit considerable difficulties in realistically representing Pan-Arctic hydrological processes. Average API discharge (monthly and seasonal discharge) over nine GWMs is 〉  50% only in the Kolyma basin (55%), as low as 30% in the Yukon basin and averaged over all watersheds API discharge is 43%. WATERGAP2 and MATSIRO present the highest (API discharge   〉  55%) while ORCHIDEE and JULES-W1 the lowest (API discharge  ≤ 25%) performing GWMs over all watersheds. For the high and low flows, average API extreme is 35% and 26%, respectively, and over six GWMs API SWE is 57%. The Boruta algorithm suggests that using different observation-based climate data sets does not influence the total score of the APIs in all watersheds. Ultimately, only satisfactory to good performing GWMs that effectively represent cold-region hydrological processes (including snow-related processes, permafrost) should be included in multi-model climate change impact assessments in Pan-Arctic watersheds.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0165-0009 , 1573-1480
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02892-2
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 751086-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1477652-2
    SSG: 14
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