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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2023
    In:  Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Vol. 15, No. 5 ( 2023-05)
    In: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 15, No. 5 ( 2023-05)
    Abstract: Model scheme complexity brings about a bouquet of problems, from hindering interpretability to hiding unforced modeler choices Using sensitivity analysis on an emulated perturbed parameter ensemble we characterize the two cloud microphysics schemes of ECHAM‐HAM We find potential for process simplifications as well as instances where model sensitivities deviate from a priori physical understanding
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1942-2466 , 1942-2466
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2462132-8
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2022
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 22, No. 7 ( 2022-04-12), p. 4737-4762
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 22, No. 7 ( 2022-04-12), p. 4737-4762
    Abstract: Abstract. Cloud properties and their evolution influence Earth's radiative balance. The cloud microphysical (CMP) processes that shape these properties are therefore important to represent in global climate models. Historically, parameterizations in these models have grown more detailed and complex. However, a simpler formulation of CMP processes may leave the model results mostly unchanged while enabling an easier interpretation of model results and helping to increase process understanding. This study employs sensitivity analysis of an emulated perturbed parameter ensemble of the global aerosol–climate model ECHAM-HAM to illuminate the impact of selected CMP cloud ice processes on model output. The response to the perturbation of a process serves as a proxy for the effect of a simplification. Autoconversion of ice crystals is found to be the dominant CMP process in influencing key variables such as the ice water path and cloud radiative effects, while riming of cloud droplets on snow has the most influence on the liquid phase. Accretion of ice and snow and self-collection of ice crystals have a negligible influence on model output and are therefore identified as suitable candidates for future simplifications. In turn, the dominating role of autoconversion suggests that this process has the greatest need to be represented correctly. A seasonal and spatially resolved analysis employing a spherical harmonics expansion of the data corroborates the results. This study introduces a new application for the combination of statistical emulation and sensitivity analysis to evaluate the sensitivity of a complex numerical model to a specific parameterized process. It paves the way for simplifications of CMP processes leading to more interpretable climate model results.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2021
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 21, No. 6 ( 2021-04-01), p. 5195-5216
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 21, No. 6 ( 2021-04-01), p. 5195-5216
    Abstract: Abstract. Clouds and cloud feedbacks represent one of the largest uncertainties in climate projections. As the ice phase influences many key cloud properties and their lifetime, its formation needs to be better understood in order to improve climate and weather prediction models. Ice crystals sedimenting out of a cloud do not sublimate immediately but can survive certain distances and eventually fall into a cloud below. This natural cloud seeding can trigger glaciation and has been shown to enhance precipitation formation. However, to date, an estimate of its occurrence frequency is lacking. In this study, we estimate the occurrence frequency of natural cloud seeding over Switzerland from satellite data and sublimation calculations. We use the DARDAR (radar lidar) satellite product between April 2006 and October 2017 to estimate the occurrence frequency of multi-layer cloud situations, where a cirrus cloud at T 〈 −35 ∘C can provide seeds to a lower-lying feeder cloud. These situations are found to occur in 31 % of the observations. Of these, 42 % have a cirrus cloud above another cloud, separated, while in 58 % the cirrus is part of a thicker cloud, with a potential for in-cloud seeding. Vertical distances between the cirrus and the lower-lying cloud are distributed uniformly between 100 m and 10 km. They are found to not vary with topography. Seasonally, winter nights have the most multi-layer cloud occurrences, in 38 % of the measurements. Additionally, in situ and liquid origin cirrus cloud size modes can be identified according to the ice crystal mean effective radius in the DARDAR data. Using sublimation calculations, we show that in a significant number of cases the seeding ice crystals do not sublimate before reaching the lower-lying feeder cloud. Depending on whether bullet rosette, plate-like or spherical crystals were assumed, 10 %, 11 % or 20 % of the crystals, respectively, could provide seeds after sedimenting 2 km. The high occurrence frequency of seeding situations and the survival of the ice crystals indicate that the seeder–feeder process and natural cloud seeding are widespread phenomena over Switzerland. This hints at a large potential for natural cloud seeding to influence cloud properties and thereby the Earth's radiative budget and water cycle, which should be studied globally. Further investigations of the magnitude of the seeding ice crystals' effect on lower-lying clouds are necessary to estimate the contribution of natural cloud seeding to precipitation.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    IOP Publishing ; 2020
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 15, No. 5 ( 2020-05-01), p. 054002-
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 15, No. 5 ( 2020-05-01), p. 054002-
    Abstract: The idea of modifying cirrus clouds to directly counteract greenhouse gas warming has gained momentum in recent years, despite disputes over its physical feasibility. Previous studies that analyzed modifications of cirrus clouds by seeding of ice nucleating particles showed large uncertainties in both cloud and surface climate responses, ranging from no effect or even a small warming to a globally averaged cooling of about 2.5 °C. We use two general circulation models that showed very different responses in previous studies, ECHAM6-HAM and CESM-CAM5, to determine which radiative and climatic responses to cirrus cloud seeding in a 1.5 × CO 2 world are common and which are not. Seeding reduces the net cirrus radiative effect for −1.8 W m −2 in CESM compared with only −0.8 W m −2 in ECHAM. Accordingly, the surface temperature decrease is larger in CESM, counteracting about 70% of the global mean temperature increase due to CO 2 and only 30% in ECHAM. While seeding impacts on mean precipitation were addressed in past studies, we are the first to analyze extreme precipitation responses to cirrus seeding. Seeding decreases the frequency of the most extreme precipitation globally. However, the extreme precipitation events occur more frequently in the Sahel and Central America, following the mean precipitation increase due to a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. In addition, we use a quadratic climate damage metric to evaluate the amount of CO 2 -induced damage cirrus seeding can counteract. Seeding decreases the damage by about 50% in ECHAM, and by 85% in CESM over the 21 selected land regions. Climate damage due to CO 2 increase is significantly reduced as a result of seeding in all of the considered land regions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Chemical Society (ACS) ; 2022
    In:  Environmental Science & Technology Vol. 56, No. 12 ( 2022-06-21), p. 8610-8618
    In: Environmental Science & Technology, American Chemical Society (ACS), Vol. 56, No. 12 ( 2022-06-21), p. 8610-8618
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0013-936X , 1520-5851
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Chemical Society (ACS)
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 280653-8
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1465132-4
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2020
    In:  Nature Geoscience Vol. 13, No. 10 ( 2020-10), p. 674-680
    In: Nature Geoscience, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 13, No. 10 ( 2020-10), p. 674-680
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1752-0894 , 1752-0908
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2396648-8
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2405323-5
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 7
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 21, No. 5 ( 2021-03-15), p. 3855-3870
    Abstract: Abstract. An accurate prediction of the ice crystal number concentration in clouds is important to determine the radiation budget, the lifetime, and the precipitation formation of clouds. Secondary-ice production is thought to be responsible for the observed discrepancies between the ice crystal number concentration and the ice-nucleating particle concentration in clouds. The Hallett–Mossop process is active between −3 and −8 ∘C and has been implemented into several models, while all other secondary-ice processes are poorly constrained and lack a well-founded quantification. During 2 h of measurements taken on a mountain slope just above the melting layer at temperatures warmer than −3 ∘C, a continuously high concentration of small plates identified as secondary ice was observed. The presence of drizzle drops suggests droplet fragmentation upon freezing as the responsible secondary-ice mechanism. The constant supply of drizzle drops can be explained by a recirculation theory, suggesting that melted snowflakes, which sedimented through the melting layer, were reintroduced into the cloud as drizzle drops by orographically forced updrafts. Here we introduce a parametrization of droplet fragmentation at slightly sub-zero temperatures, where primary-ice nucleation is basically absent, and the first ice is initiated by the collision of drizzle drops with aged ice crystals sedimenting from higher altitudes. Based on previous measurements, we estimate that a droplet of 200 µm in diameter produces 18 secondary-ice crystals when it fragments upon freezing. The application of the parametrization to our measurements suggests that the actual number of splinters produced by a fragmenting droplet may be up to an order of magnitude higher.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2023
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 23, No. 13 ( 2023-07-13), p. 7673-7698
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 23, No. 13 ( 2023-07-13), p. 7673-7698
    Abstract: Abstract. To date the climate intervention (CI) proposal of cirrus cloud thinning (CCT) was only assessed in general circulation models (GCMs) using a globally uniform distribution of artificial ice nucleating particles (INPs). In this study, we made the first attempt using the ECHAM–HAM (Hamburg Aerosol Module) GCM to simulate CCT using a fully prognostic cirrus seeding aerosol species. Seeding particles were assumed to be made of bismuth triiodide and were emitted into the atmosphere following aircraft emissions of black carbon (soot). This new approach drastically reduced the number concentration of seeding particles available as INPs in our cirrus ice nucleation sub-model compared to the globally uniform approach. As a result, we found that in order to achieve a significant signal we needed to reduce the assumed radius of emitted seeding particles by an order of magnitude to 0.01 µm and scale the mass emissions of seeding particles by at least a factor of 100 or 1000. This latter scaling factor led to a large net top-of-atmosphere (TOA) warming effect of 5.9 W m−2. This warming effect was a clear response to overseeding with a large concentration of seeding particles (〉105 L−1 in the Northern Hemisphere) that was most evident in the tropics. Due to this undesired effect, in a second series of simulations we avoided seeding the tropics by restricting emissions to only the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during winter. We also found a small and insignificant effect, or overseeding, which for the extreme case was reduced compared to the global aircraft emission scenario (2.2 W m−2). Ice crystal radius anomalies were not what we expected, with the largest reduction in size found for the case with a mass scaling factor of 10 instead of the extreme, ×1000, scenario. We attributed this peculiar behavior to the differences in the competition between different seeding particle concentrations and background particles. Finally, we also found that seeding with such large concentrations increased the albedo effect of mixed-phase clouds in the NH due to less efficient cloud droplet consumption, consistent with previous findings from our model. Overall, however, based on this study it is recommended to pause further modeling efforts of CCT unless more observational-based evidence of aerosol–ice-cloud interactions indicates favorable conditions for producing the desired outcome of this CI proposal.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2023
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 23, No. 4 ( 2023-02-20), p. 2345-2364
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 23, No. 4 ( 2023-02-20), p. 2345-2364
    Abstract: Abstract. The change in wind direction and speed with height, referred to as vertical wind shear, causes enhanced turbulence in the atmosphere. As a result, there are enhanced interactions between ice particles that break up during collisions in clouds which could cause heavy snowfall. For example, intense dual-polarization Doppler signatures in conjunction with strong vertical wind shear were observed by an X-band weather radar during a wintertime high-intensity precipitation event over the Swiss Alps. An enhancement of differential phase shift (Kdp〉1∘ km−1) around −15 ∘C suggested that a large population of oblate ice particles was present in the atmosphere. Here, we show that ice–graupel collisions are a likely origin of this population, probably enhanced by turbulence. We perform sensitivity simulations that include ice–graupel collisions of a cold frontal passage to investigate whether these simulations can capture the event better and whether the vertical wind shear had an impact on the secondary ice production (SIP) rate. The simulations are conducted with the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO), at a 1 km horizontal grid spacing in the Davos region in Switzerland. The rime-splintering simulations could not reproduce the high ice crystal number concentrations, produced too large ice particles and therefore overestimated the radar reflectivity. The collisional-breakup simulations reproduced both the measured horizontal reflectivity and the ground-based observations of hydrometeor number concentration more accurately (∼20 L−1). During 14:30–15:45 UTC the vertical wind shear strengthened by 60 % within the region favorable for SIP. Calculation of the mutual information between the SIP rate and vertical wind shear and updraft velocity suggests that the SIP rate is best predicted by the vertical wind shear rather than the updraft velocity. The ice–graupel simulations were insensitive to the parameters in the model that control the size threshold for the conversion from ice to graupel and snow to graupel.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2021
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 21, No. 19 ( 2021-10-12), p. 15115-15134
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 21, No. 19 ( 2021-10-12), p. 15115-15134
    Abstract: Abstract. The discrepancy between the observed concentration of ice nucleating particles (INPs) and the ice crystal number concentration (ICNC) remains unresolved and limits our understanding of ice formation and, hence, precipitation amount, location and intensity. Enhanced ice formation through secondary ice production (SIP) could account for this discrepancy. Here, in a region over the eastern Swiss Alps, we perform sensitivity studies of additional simulated SIP processes on precipitation formation and surface precipitation intensity. The SIP processes considered include rime splintering, droplet shattering during freezing and breakup through ice–graupel collisions. We simulated the passage of a cold front at Gotschnagrat, a peak at 2281 m a.s.l. (above sea level), on 7 March 2019 with the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO), at a 1 km horizontal grid spacing, as part of the RACLETS (Role of Aerosols and CLouds Enhanced by Topography and Snow) field campaign in the Davos region in Switzerland. The largest simulated difference in the ICNC at the surface originated from the breakup simulations. Indeed, breakup caused a 1 to 3 orders of magnitude increase in the ICNC compared to SIP from rime splintering or without SIP processes in the control simulation. The ICNCs from the collisional breakup simulations at Gotschnagrat were in best agreement with the ICNCs measured on a gondola near the surface. However, these simulations were not able to reproduce the ice crystal habits near the surface. Enhanced ICNCs from collisional breakup reduced localized regions of higher precipitation and, thereby, improved the model performance in terms of surface precipitation over the domain.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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