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  • 1
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    Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity (2014)
    Copernicus Publications
    In:  EPIC3Biogeosciences Discussions, Copernicus Publications, 11(12), pp. 16599-16643
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-05-28
    Description: High-latitude soils store vast amounts of perennially frozen and therefore inert organic matter. With rising global temperatures and consequent permafrost degradation, a part of this carbon store will become available for microbial decay and eventual release to the atmosphere. We have developed a simplified, two-dimensional multi-pool model to estimate the strength and timing of future carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes from newly thawed permafrost carbon (i.e. carbon thawed when temperatures rise above pre-industrial levels). We have especially simulated carbon release from deep deposits in Yedoma regions by describing abrupt thaw under thermokarst lakes. The computational efficiency of our model allowed us to run large, multi-centennial ensembles under various scenarios of future warming to express uncertainty inherent to simulations of the permafrost-carbon feedback. Under moderate warming of the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario, cumulated CO2 fluxes from newly thawed permafrost carbon amount to 20 to 58 petagrammes of carbon (Pg-C) (68% range) by the year 2100 and reach 40 to 98 Pg-C in 2300. The much larger permafrost degradation under strong warming (RCP8.5) results in cumulated CO2 release of 42–141 and 157–313 Pg-C (68% ranges) in the years 2100 and 2300, respectively. Our estimates do only consider fluxes from newly thawed permafrost but not from soils already part of the seasonally thawed active layer under preindustrial climate. Our simulated methane fluxes contribute a few percent to total permafrost carbon release yet they can cause up to 40% of total permafrost-affected radiative forcing in the 21st century (upper 68% range). We infer largest methane emission rates of about 50 Tg-CH4 year–1 around the mid of the 21st century when simulated thermokarst lake extent is at its maximum and when abrupt thaw under thermokarst lakes is accounted for. CH4 release from newly thawed carbon in wetland-affected deposits is only discernible in the 22nd and 23rd century because of the absence of abrupt thaw processes. We further show that release from organic matter stored in deep deposits of Yedoma regions does crucially affect our simulated circumpolar methane fluxes. The additional warming through the release from newly thawed permafrost carbon proved only slightly dependent on the pathway of anthropogenic emission and amounts about 0.03–0.14 °C (68% ranges) by end of the century. The warming increased further in the 22nd and 23rd century and was most pronounced under the RCP6.0 scenario with adding 0.16–0.39°C (68% range) to simulated global mean surface air temperatures in the year 2300.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , notRev , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 2
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    Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity (2015)
    In:  EPIC3Biogeosciences, 12(11), pp. 3469-3488, ISSN: 1726-4189
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-06-23
    Description: High-latitude soils store vast amounts of perennially frozen and therefore inert organic matter. With rising global temperatures and consequent permafrost degradation, a part of this carbon stock will become available for microbial decay and eventual release to the atmosphere. We have developed a simplified, two-dimensional multi-pool model to estimate the strength and timing of future carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes from newly thawed permafrost carbon (i.e. carbon thawed when temperatures rise above pre-industrial levels). We have especially simulated carbon release from deep deposits in Yedoma regions by describing abrupt thaw under newly formed thermokarst lakes. The computational efficiency of our model allowed us to run large, multi-centennial ensembles under various scenarios of future warming to express uncertainty inherent to simulations of the permafrost carbon feedback. Under moderate warming of the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario, cumulated CO2 fluxes from newly thawed permafrost carbon amount to 20 to 58 petagrams of carbon (Pg-C) (68% range) by the year 2100 and reach 40 to 98 Pg-C in 2300. The much larger permafrost degradation under strong warming (RCP8.5) results in cumulated CO2 release of 42 to 141 Pg-C and 157 to 313 Pg-C (68% ranges) in the years 2100 and 2300, respectively. Our estimates only consider fluxes from newly thawed permafrost, not from soils already part of the seasonally thawed active layer under pre-industrial climate. Our simulated CH4 fluxes contribute a few percent to total permafrost carbon release yet they can cause up to 40% of total permafrost-affected radiative forcing in the 21st century (upper 68% range). We infer largest CH4 emission rates of about 50 Tg-CH4 per year around the middle of the 21st century when simulated thermokarst lake extent is at its maximum and when abrupt thaw under thermokarst lakes is taken into account. CH4 release from newly thawed carbon in wetland-affected deposits is only discernible in the 22nd and 23rd century because of the absence of abrupt thaw processes. We further show that release from organic matter stored in deep deposits of Yedoma regions crucially affects our simulated circumpolar CH4 fluxes. The additional warming through the release from newly thawed permafrost carbon proved only slightly dependent on the pathway of anthropogenic emission and amounts to about 0.03–0.14 °C (68% ranges) by end of the century. The warming increased further in the 22nd and 23rd century and was most pronounced under the RCP6.0 scenario, adding 0.16 to 0.39 °C (68% range) to simulated global mean surface air temperatures in the year 2300.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 3
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    Uncertainty analysis of vegetation distribution in the northern high latitudes during the 21st century with a dynamic vegetation model (2013)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2012. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ecology and Evolution 2 (2012): 593–614, doi:10.1002/ece3.85.
    Description: This study aims to assess how high-latitude vegetation may respond under various climate scenarios during the 21st century with a focus on analyzing model parameters induced uncertainty and how this uncertainty compares to the uncertainty induced by various climates. The analysis was based on a set of 10,000 Monte Carlo ensemble Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) simulations for the northern high latitudes (45oN and polewards) for the period 1900–2100. The LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) was run under contemporary and future climates from four Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), A1FI, A2, B1, and B2, based on the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (GCM), and six climate scenarios, X901M, X902L, X903H, X904M, X905L, and X906H from the Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). In the current dynamic vegetation model, some parameters are more important than others in determining the vegetation distribution. Parameters that control plant carbon uptake and light-use efficiency have the predominant influence on the vegetation distribution of both woody and herbaceous plant functional types. The relative importance of different parameters varies temporally and spatially and is influenced by climate inputs. In addition to climate, these parameters play an important role in determining the vegetation distribution in the region. The parameter-based uncertainties contribute most to the total uncertainty. The current warming conditions lead to a complexity of vegetation responses in the region. Temperate trees will be more sensitive to climate variability, compared with boreal forest trees and C3 perennial grasses. This sensitivity would result in a unanimous northward greenness migration due to anomalous warming in the northern high latitudes. Temporally, boreal needleleaved evergreen plants are projected to decline considerably, and a large portion of C3 perennial grass is projected to disappear by the end of the 21st century. In contrast, the area of temperate trees would increase, especially under the most extreme A1FI scenario. As the warming continues, the northward greenness expansion in the Arctic region could continue.
    Description: Funded by the NASA Land Use and Land Cover Change program (NASA-NNX09AI26G), Department of Energy (DE-FG0208ER64599), National Science Foundation (NSF-1028291 and NSF-0919331), and the NSF Carbon and Water in the Earth Program (NSF-0630319).
    Keywords: Climate-induced uncertainty ; Greenness migration ; Prameter importance ; Parameter-induced uncertainty ; Sensitivity analysis ; Vegetation redistribution
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 4
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    Modelling of carbon release from deep permafrost carbon deposits with accounting for thermokarst activity (2015)
    In:  EPIC3CarboPerm meeting 2015, Hamburg, 2015-02-18-2015-02-20
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-06-01
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Conference , notRev
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  • 5
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    Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity (2015)
    In:  EPIC3EGU General Assembly 2015, Vienna, 2015-04-12-2015-04-17
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-06-01
    Description: With rising global temperatures and consequent permafrost degradation a part of old carbon stored in high latitude soils will become available for microbial decay and eventual release to the atmosphere. To estimate the strength and timing of future carbon dioxide and methane fluxes from newly thawed permafrost carbon, we have developed a simplified, two-dimensional multi-pool model. As large amounts of soil organic matter are stored in depths below three meters, we have also simulated carbon release from deep deposits in Yedoma regions. For this purpose we have modelled abrupt thaw under thermokarst lakes which can unlock large amounts of soil carbon buried deep in the ground. The computational efficiency of our 2-D model allowed us to run large, multi-centennial ensembles of differing scenarios of future warming to express uncertainty inherent to simulations of the permafrost-carbon feedback. Our model simulations, which are constrained by multiple lines of recent observations, suggest cumulated CO2 fluxes from newly thawed permafrost until the year 2100 of 20-58 Pg-C under moderate warming (RCP2.6), and of 42–141Pg-C under strong warming (RCP8.5). Under intense thermokarst activity, our simulated methane fluxes proved substantial and caused up to 40 % of total permafrost-affected radiative forcing in the 21st century. By quantifying CH4 contributions from different pools and depth levels, we discuss the role of thermokarst dynamics in affecting future Arctic carbon release. The additional global warming through the release from newly thawed permafrost carbon proved only slightly dependent on the pathway of anthropogenic emission in our simulations and reached about 0.1 °C by end of the century. The long-term, permafrost-affected global warming increased further in the 22nd and 23rd century, reaching a maximum of about 0.4°C in the year 2300.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Conference , notRev
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  • 6
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    Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios (2021)
    IOP Publishing Ltd
    In:  EPIC3Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing Ltd, 16(2), pp. 024049-024049, ISSN: 1748-9326
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-19
    Description: Amplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the-art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a subset of bias-adjusted CMIP5 General Circulation Models to estimate the impact of different global warming scenarios (RCP2.6, 6.0, 8.5) on two modes of winter travel: overland travel days (OTDs) and ice road construction days (IRCDs). We show that OTDs decrease by on average −13% in the near future (2021–2050) and between −15% (RCP2.6) and −40% (RCP8.5) in the far future (2070–2099) compared to the reference period (1971–2000) when 173 d yr−1 are simulated across the Pan-Arctic. Regionally, we identified Eastern Siberia (Sakha (Yakutia), Khabarovsk Krai, Magadan Oblast) to be most resilient to climate change, while Alaska (USA), the Northwestern Russian regions (Yamalo, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Nenets, Komi, Khanty-Mansiy), Northern Europe and Chukotka are highly vulnerable. The change in OTDs is most pronounced during the shoulder season, particularly in autumn. The IRCDs reduce on average twice as much as the OTDs under all climate scenarios resulting in shorter operational duration. The results of the low-end global warming scenario (RCP2.6) emphasize that stringent climate mitigation policies have the potential to reduce the impact of climate change on winter mobility in the second half of the 21st century. Nevertheless, even under RCP2.6, our results suggest substantially reduced winter overland travel implying a severe threat to livelihoods of remote communities and increasing costs for resource exploration and transport across the Arctic.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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