Description: Considerable effort is being deployed to predict the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the ocean's biophysical environment, biodiversity, and natural resources to better understand how marine ecosystems and provided services to humans are likely to change and explore alternative pathways and options. We present an updated version of EcoOcean (v2), a spatial-temporal ecosystem modeling complex of the global ocean that spans food-web dynamics from primary producers to top predators. Advancements include an enhanced ability to reproduce spatial-temporal ecosystem dynamics by linking species productivity, distributions, and trophic interactions to the impacts of climate change and worldwide fisheries. The updated modeling platform is used to simulate past and future scenarios of change, where we quantify the impacts of alternative configurations of the ecological model, responses to climate-change scenarios, and the additional impacts of fishing. Climate-change scenarios are obtained from two Earth-System Models (ESMs, GFDL-ESM2M, and IPSL-CMA5-LR) and two contrasting emission pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5) for historical (1950-2005) and future (2006-2100) periods. Standardized ecological indicators and biomasses of selected species groups are used to compare simulations. Results show how future ecological trajectories are sensitive to alternative configurations of EcoOcean, and yield moderate differences when looking at ecological indicators and larger differences for biomasses of species groups. Ecological trajectories are also sensitive to environmental drivers from alternative ESM outputs and RCPs, and show spatial variability and more severe changes when IPSL and RCP 8.5 are used. Under a non-fishing configuration, larger organisms show decreasing trends, while smaller organisms show mixed or increasing results. Fishing intensifies the negative effects predicted by climate change, again stronger under IPSL and RCP 8.5, which results in stronger biomass declines for species already losing under climate change, or dampened positive impacts for those increasing. Several species groups that win under climate change become losers under combined impacts, while only a few (small benthopelagic fish and cephalopods) species are projected to show positive biomass changes under cumulative impacts. EcoOcean v2 can contribute to the quantification of cumulative impact assessments of multiple stressors and of plausible ocean-based solutions to prevent, mitigate and adapt to global change.

Description: Despite management efforts, anthropogenic nutrient enrichments continue to enhance phytoplankton blooms worldwide. Release of nitrogen and phosphorus compounds not only provides surplus of nutrients but also disbalances their stoichiometry. Declines in the relative availability of dissolved silicon might induce limitation in diatoms, major primary producers with silicified shells. We studied experimentally how nutrient enrichment and resulting decline in dissolved silicon to nitrogen ratios (Si:N) affect the structure and functioning of natural plankton communities. Nitrate was added to create a range of Si:N ratios and phosphate was supplied in Redfield ratio to nitrogen. We also manipulated copepod abundance to understand the top-down effects on communities experiencing nutrient enrichment. Nitrogen and phosphorus additions resulted in a steep phytoplankton biomass increase, followed by a post-bloom decline. Phytoplankton bloom biomass was higher in high nitrogen treatments but during the post-bloom period this trend switched. Biomass was sustained longer in high Si:N treatments, indicating that silicon limitation terminates the bloom. Many diatom species did not benefit from nitrogen and phosphorus enrichment and diatom dominance ceased below Si:N of 0.4:1. Under high grazing pressure, silicate was taken up faster suggesting that silicification is important in diatom defense. Copepods shaped plankton communities via feeding on dinoflagellates, chlorophytes and the diatom Skeletonema costatum but there was no significant effect of nitrogen and phosphorus enrichment on copepod abundance. Our results, combined with previous studies, show that while nutrient concentrations define the total phytoplankton bloom biomass, resource ratios are important in sustaining biomass and determining community structure and composition.