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  • 1
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    Water scarcity under various socio-economic pathways and its potential effects on food production in the Yellow River basin
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2017
    In:  Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Vol. 21, No. 2 ( 2017-02-09), p. 791-804
    Details
    In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 21, No. 2 ( 2017-02-09), p. 791-804
    Abstract: Abstract. Increasing population and socio-economic development have put great pressure on water resources of the Yellow River (YR) basin. The anticipated climate and socio-economic changes may further increase water stress. Many studies have investigated the changes in renewable water resources under various climate change scenarios, but few have considered the joint pressure from both climate change and socio-economic development. In this study, we assess water scarcity under various socio-economic pathways with emphasis on the impact of water scarcity on food production. The water demands in the 21st century are estimated based on the newly developed shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and renewable water supply is estimated using the climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The assessment predicts that the renewable water resources would decrease slightly then increase. The domestic and industrial water withdrawals are projected to increase in the next a few decades and then remain at the high level or decrease slightly during the 21st century. The increase in water withdrawals will put the middle and lower reaches in a condition of severe water scarcity beginning in the next a few decades. If 40 % of the renewable water resources were used to sustain ecosystems, a portion of irrigated land would have to be converted to rain-fed agriculture, which would lead to a 2–11 % reduction in food production. This study highlights the links between water, food and ecosystems in a changing environment and suggests that trade-offs should be considered when developing regional adaptation strategies.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1607-7938
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-791-2017
    DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-791-2017-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2100610-6
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  • 2
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    Attributing trend in naturalized streamflow to temporally explicit vegetation change and climate variation in the Yellow River basin of China
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2022
    In:  Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Vol. 26, No. 20 ( 2022-10-26), p. 5291-5314
    Details
    In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 26, No. 20 ( 2022-10-26), p. 5291-5314
    Abstract: Abstract. The naturalized streamflow, i.e., streamflow without water management effects, in the Yellow River basin (YRB) has been significantly decreased at a rate of -3.71×108 m3 yr−1 during 1982–2018, although annual precipitation experienced an insignificantly positive trend. Explicit detection and attribution of naturalized streamflow are critical to manage limited water resources for the sustainable development of ecosystems and socio-economic systems. The effects from temporally explicit changes of climate variables and underlying surfaces on the streamflow trend were assessed using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model prescribed with continuously dynamic leaf area index (LAI) and land cover. The results show a sharp increase of the LAI trend and land use change as a conversion of cropland into forest grass in the basin. The decrease in naturalized streamflow can primarily be attributed to the vegetation changes including an interannual LAI increase and intra-annual LAI temporal pattern change, which account for the streamflow reduction of 1.99×108 and 0.45×108 m3 yr−1, respectively. The impacts of the LAI change are largest at the subregion of Longmen–Huayuankou where the LAI increasing trend is high and land use change is substantial. Attribution based on simulations with multiyear average LAI changes obviously underestimates the impacts of the interannual LAI change and intra-annual LAI temporal change on the natural streamflow trend. Overall, the effect of climate variation on streamflow is slight because the positive effect from precipitation and wind speed changes was offset by the negative effect from increasing temperature. Although climate variation is decisive for streamflow change, this study suggests that change in underlying surfaces has imposed a substantial trend on naturalized streamflow. This study improves the understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns and the underlying mechanisms of natural streamflow reduction across the YRB between 1982 and 2018.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1607-7938
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/hess-26-5291-2022
    DOI: 10.5194/hess-26-5291-2022-corrigendum
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2100610-6
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  • 3
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    Panta Rhei benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2023
    In:  Earth System Science Data Vol. 15, No. 5 ( 2023-05-16), p. 2009-2023
    Details
    In: Earth System Science Data, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 15, No. 5 ( 2023-05-16), p. 2009-2023
    Abstract: Abstract. As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions, and feedbacks in complex human–water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises (1) detailed review-style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; (2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterize management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and impacts of all events; and (3) a table of the indicators of change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators of change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses, e.g. focused on causal links between risk management; changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability; and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration, and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.4.4.2023.001).
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1866-3516
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2475469-9
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  • 4
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    Recent decrease in summer precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula closely links to reduction in local moisture recycling
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2022
    In:  Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Vol. 26, No. 8 ( 2022-04-19), p. 1925-1936
    Details
    In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 26, No. 8 ( 2022-04-19), p. 1925-1936
    Abstract: Abstract. The inherently dry summer climate of the Iberian Peninsula (IP) is undergoing drought exacerbated by more intense warming and reduced precipitation. Although many studies have studied changes in summer climate factors, it is still unclear how the changes in moisture contribution from the sources lead to the decrease in summer precipitation. This study investigates the differences in the IP precipitationshed from 1980 to 1997 and 1998 to 2019 using the Water Accounting Model-2layers with ERA5 data, and assesses the role of local moisture recycling and external moisture in reducing summer precipitation. Our findings indicate that the moisture contributions from the local IP, and from the west and the east of the precipitationshed, contributed 1.7, 3.6 and 1.1 mm per month less precipitation after 1997 than before 1997, accounting for 26 %, 57 % and 17 % of the main source supply reduction, respectively. The significant downward trend of the IP local moisture recycling closely links to the disappearance of the wet years after 1997 as well as the decrease in local contribution in the dry years. Moreover, the feedback between the weakened local moisture recycling and the drier land surface can exacerbate the local moisture scarcity and summer drought.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1607-7938
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/hess-26-1925-2022
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2100610-6
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  • 5
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    Multimodel assessments of human and climate impacts on mean annual streamflow in China
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2019
    In:  Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Vol. 23, No. 3 ( 2019-03-06), p. 1245-1261
    Details
    In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 23, No. 3 ( 2019-03-06), p. 1245-1261
    Abstract: Abstract. Human activities, as well as climate variability, have had increasing impacts on natural hydrological systems, particularly streamflow. However, quantitative assessments of these impacts are lacking on large scales. In this study, we use the simulations from six global hydrological models driven by three meteorological forcings to investigate direct human impact (DHI) and climate impact on streamflow in China. Results show that, in the sub-periods of 1971–1990 and 1991–2010, one-fifth to one-third of mean annual streamflow (MAF) was reduced due to DHI in northern basins, and much smaller (〈4 %) MAF was reduced in southern basins. From 1971–1990 to 1991–2010, total MAF changes range from −13 % to 10 % across basins wherein the relative contributions of DHI change and climate variability show distinct spatial patterns. DHI change caused decreases in MAF in 70 % of river segments, but climate variability dominated the total MAF changes in 88 % of river segments of China. In most northern basins, climate variability results in changes of −9 % to 18 % in MAF, while DHI change results in decreases of 2 % to 8 % in MAF. In contrast with the climate variability that may increase or decrease streamflow, DHI change almost always contributes to decreases in MAF over time, with water withdrawals supposedly being the major impact on streamflow. This quantitative assessment can be a reference for attribution of streamflow changes at large scales, despite remaining uncertainty. We highlight the significant DHI in northern basins and the necessity to modulate DHI through improved water management towards a better adaptation to future climate change.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1607-7938
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-1245-2019
    DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-1245-2019-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2100610-6
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  • 6
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    Annual flood damage influenced by El Niño in the Kan River basin, Iran
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2020
    In:  Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Vol. 20, No. 10 ( 2020-10-17), p. 2739-2751
    Details
    In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 20, No. 10 ( 2020-10-17), p. 2739-2751
    Abstract: Abstract. Although many studies have explored the effect of teleconnection patterns on floods, few investigations have focused on the assessment of expected flood damage under such large-scale atmospheric signals. This study aims to determine the effect of the most emblematic teleconnection, El Niño, on the expected damage due to floods with short return periods in the Kan River basin, Iran. To determine the flood damage costs, the median of annual precipitation changes (ΔP) during El Niño conditions was used, although ΔP cannot necessarily be transferred to extreme values. Then the flooded area was determined under the increased rainfall due to El Niño for 5-, 10-, and 50-year return periods. The results showed that El Niño has increased the annual precipitation by 12.2 %. Flood damage assessment using damage–depth curves showed that the relative increase in expected damage during El Niño conditions is much higher for short return period floods than that for long return period floods. In general, a 12.2 % increase in the annual precipitation would increase the damage by 1671 % and 176 %, respectively, for the return periods of 5 and 10 years. However, in the case of a 50-year flood, this increased percentile decreased to 52 %. These results indicate the importance of small flood events in flood management planning during El Niño.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1684-9981
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/nhess-20-2739-2020
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069216-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2064587-9
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  • 7
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    Reconstruction of global gridded monthly sectoral water withdrawals for 1971–2010 and analysis of their spatiotemporal patterns
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2018
    In:  Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Vol. 22, No. 4 ( 2018-04-06), p. 2117-2133
    Details
    In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 22, No. 4 ( 2018-04-06), p. 2117-2133
    Abstract: Abstract. Human water withdrawal has increasingly altered the global water cycle in past decades, yet our understanding of its driving forces and patterns is limited. Reported historical estimates of sectoral water withdrawals are often sparse and incomplete, mainly restricted to water withdrawal estimates available at annual and country scales, due to a lack of observations at seasonal and local scales. In this study, through collecting and consolidating various sources of reported data and developing spatial and temporal statistical downscaling algorithms, we reconstruct a global monthly gridded (0.5∘) sectoral water withdrawal dataset for the period 1971–2010, which distinguishes six water use sectors, i.e., irrigation, domestic, electricity generation (cooling of thermal power plants), livestock, mining, and manufacturing. Based on the reconstructed dataset, the spatial and temporal patterns of historical water withdrawal are analyzed. Results show that total global water withdrawal has increased significantly during 1971–2010, mainly driven by the increase in irrigation water withdrawal. Regions with high water withdrawal are those densely populated or with large irrigated cropland production, e.g., the United States (US), eastern China, India, and Europe. Seasonally, irrigation water withdrawal in summer for the major crops contributes a large percentage of total annual irrigation water withdrawal in mid- and high-latitude regions, and the dominant season of irrigation water withdrawal is also different across regions. Domestic water withdrawal is mostly characterized by a summer peak, while water withdrawal for electricity generation has a winter peak in high-latitude regions and a summer peak in low-latitude regions. Despite the overall increasing trend, irrigation in the western US and domestic water withdrawal in western Europe exhibit a decreasing trend. Our results highlight the distinct spatial pattern of human water use by sectors at the seasonal and annual timescales. The reconstructed gridded water withdrawal dataset is open access, and can be used for examining issues related to water withdrawals at fine spatial, temporal, and sectoral scales.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1607-7938
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-2117-2018
    DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-2117-2018-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2100610-6
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  • 8
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    Tracing changes in atmospheric moisture supply to the drying Southwest China
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2017
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 17, No. 17 ( 2017-09-05), p. 10383-10393
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 17, No. 17 ( 2017-09-05), p. 10383-10393
    Abstract: Abstract. Precipitation over Southwest China (SWC) significantly decreased during 1979–2013. The months from July to September (JAS) contributed the most to the decrease in precipitation. By tracing moisture sources of JAS precipitation over the SWC region, it is found that most moisture originates in regions from the northern Indian Ocean to SWC and from South China Sea to SWC. The major moisture contributing area is divided into an extended west region, SWC, and an extended east region. The extended west region is mainly influenced by the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) and the westerlies, while the extended east region is mainly influenced by the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The extended west, SWC, and extended east regions contribute 48.2, 15.5, and 24.5 % of the moisture for the SWC precipitation, respectively. Moisture supply from the extended west region decreased at a rate of −7.9 mm month−1 decade−1, whereas that from the extended east increased at a rate of 1.4 mm month−1 decade−1, resulting in an overall decrease in moisture supply. Further analysis reveals that the decline of JAS precipitation is mainly caused by change in the seasonal-mean component rather than the transient component of the moisture transport over the SWC region. In addition, the dynamic processes (i.e., changes in wind) rather than the thermodynamic processes (i.e., changes in specific humidity) are dominant in affecting the seasonal-mean moisture transport. A prevailing easterly anomaly of moisture transport that weakened moisture supply from the Indian Ocean is to a large extent responsible for the precipitation decrease over the SWC region.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-17-10383-2017
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-17-10383-2017-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 9
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    Projected impacts of climate change on hydropower potential in China
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2016
    In:  Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Vol. 20, No. 8 ( 2016-08-22), p. 3343-3359
    Details
    In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 20, No. 8 ( 2016-08-22), p. 3343-3359
    Abstract: Abstract. Hydropower is an important renewable energy source in China, but it is sensitive to climate change, because the changing climate may alter hydrological conditions (e.g., river flow and reservoir storage). Future changes and associated uncertainties in China's gross hydropower potential (GHP) and developed hydropower potential (DHP) are projected using simulations from eight global hydrological models (GHMs), including a large-scale reservoir regulation model, forced by five general circulation models (GCMs) with climate data under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Results show that the estimation of the present GHP of China is comparable to other studies; overall, the annual GHP is projected to change by −1.7 to 2 % in the near future (2020–2050) and increase by 3 to 6 % in the late 21st century (2070–2099). The annual DHP is projected to change by −2.2 to −5.4 % (0.7–1.7 % of the total installed hydropower capacity (IHC)) and −1.3 to −4 % (0.4–1.3 % of total IHC) for 2020–2050 and 2070–2099, respectively. Regional variations emerge: GHP will increase in northern China but decrease in southern China – mostly in south central China and eastern China – where numerous reservoirs and large IHCs currently are located. The area with the highest GHP in southwest China will have more GHP, while DHP will reduce in the regions with high IHC (e.g., Sichuan and Hubei) in the future. The largest decrease in DHP (in %) will occur in autumn or winter, when streamflow is relatively low and water use is competitive. Large ranges in hydropower estimates across GHMs and GCMs highlight the necessity of using multimodel assessments under climate change conditions. This study prompts the consideration of climate change in planning for hydropower development and operations in China, to be further combined with a socioeconomic analysis for strategic expansion.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1607-7938
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-3343-2016
    DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-3343-2016-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2016
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