Description: Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are potentially affecting marine ecosystems twofold, by warming and acidification. The rising amount of CO2 taken up by the ocean lowers the saturation state of calcium carbonate, complicating the formation of this key biomineral used by many marine organisms to build hard parts like skeletons or shells. Reliable time-series data of seawater pH are needed to evaluate the ongoing change and compare long-term trends and natural variability. For the high-latitude ocean, the region facing the strongest CO2 uptake, such time-series data are so far entirely lacking. Our study provides, to our knowledge, the first reconstruction of seasonal cycle and long-term trend in pH for a high-latitude ocean obtained from 2D images of stable boron isotopes from a coralline alga.

Description: Here we provide optimised vertical eddy diffusivity estimates for the PeECE III and KOSMOS 2013 mesocosm experiment, obtained from a model-based reanalysis. These diffusivities are derived from the observed temperature and salinity profiles that have been published in Schulz et al., 2008. Furthermore, we make our model code available, providing an adjustable tool to simulate vertical mixing in any other pelagic mesocosm. We also provide the interpolated and regridded temperature and salinity profiles of the PeECE III experiment as well as the density profiles which we calculated from the temperature and salinity profiles using the R package seacarb (Lavigne et al., 2011). These data files are required as input to run simulations of the PeECE III experiment with the 1D mesocosm mixing model. The columns of the environmental files (required input files for the model) from left to right are: Experiment year, month, day, Julian day, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) [W/m^2], temperature [C], salinity [PSU], CO2 concentration [ppm], wind speed [m/s]. The rows list the respective value of each hour of the experiment. Temperature and salinity in this table are hourly interpolated values of the daily measurements published by the PeECE III team (2005). PAR has been calculated from global radiation data of Bergen provided by Olseth et al., 2005. In the temperature, salinity and density files, the rows indicate the depth (0.5 m resolution, the first row is the surface, the last row is the bottom), whereas the columns indicate the experiment time at an hourly resolution.

Description: No records exist to evaluate long-term pH dynamics in high-latitude oceans, which have the greatest probability of rapid acidification from anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We reconstructed both seasonal variability and anthropogenic change in seawater pH and temperature by using laser ablation high-resolution 2D images of stable boron isotopes (δ11B) on a long-lived coralline alga that grew continuously through the 20th century. Analyses focused on four multiannual growth segments. We show a long-term decline of 0.08 ± 0.01 pH units between the end of the 19th and 20th century, which is consistent with atmospheric CO2 records. Additionally, a strong seasonal cycle (∼0.22 pH units) is observed and interpreted as episodic annual pH increases caused by the consumption of CO2 during strong algal (kelp) growth in spring and summer. The rate of acidification intensifies from –0.006 ± 0.007 pH units per decade (between 1920s and 1960s) to –0.019 ± 0.009 pH units per decade (between 1960s and 1990s), and the episodic pH increases show a continuous shift to earlier times of the year throughout the centennial record. This is indicative of ecosystem shifts in shallow water algal productivity in this high-latitude habitat resulting from warming and acidification.

Description: Numerical Earth System Models are generic tools used to extrapolate present climate conditions into a warming future and to explore geoengineering options. Most of the current-generation models feature a simple pelagic biogeochemical model component that is embedded into a three-dimensional ocean general circulation model. The dynamics of these biogeochemical model components is essentially controlled by so-called model parameters most of which are poorly known. Here we explore the feasibility to estimate these parameters in a full-fledged three-dimensional Earth System Model by minimizing the misfit to noisy observations. The focus is on parameter identifiability. Based on earlier studies, we illustrate problems in determining a unique estimate of those parameters that prescribe the limiting effect of nutrient- and light-depleted conditions on carbon assimilation by autotrophic phytoplankton. Our results showcase that for typical models and evaluation metrics no meaningful “best” unique parameter set exists. We find very different parameter sets which are, on the one hand, equally consistent with our (synthetic) historical observations while, on the other hand, they propose strikingly differing projections into a warming climate.

Description: In a changing climate, marine pelagic biogeochemistry may modulate the atmospheric concentrations of climate-relevant species such as CO2 and N2O. To date, projections rely on earth system models, featuring simple pelagic biogeochemical model components, embedded into 3-D ocean circulation models. Most of these biogeochemical model components rely on the hyperbolic Michaelis–Menten (MM) formulation which specifies the limiting effect of light and nutrients on carbon assimilation by autotrophic phytoplankton. The respective MM constants, along with other model parameters, of 3-D coupled biogeochemical ocean-circulation models are usually tuned; the parameters are changed until a "reasonable" similarity to observed standing stocks is achieved. Here, we explore with twin experiments (or synthetic "observations") the demands on observations that allow for a more objective estimation of model parameters. We start with parameter retrieval experiments based on "perfect" (synthetic) observations which we distort, step by step, by low-frequency noise to approach realistic conditions. Finally, we confirm our findings with real-world observations. In summary, we find that MM constants are especially hard to constrain because even modest noise (10 %) inherent to observations may hinder the parameter retrieval already. This is of concern since the MM parameters are key to the model's sensitivity to anticipated changes in the external conditions. Furthermore, we illustrate problems caused by high-order parameter dependencies when parameter estimation is based on sparse observations of standing stocks. Somewhat counter to intuition, we find that more observational data can sometimes degrade the ability to constrain certain parameters.

Description: Growing slowly, marine N2 fixers are generally expected to be competitive only where nitrogen (N) supply is low relative to that of phosphorus (P) with respect to the cellular N:P ratio (R) of non-fixing phytoplankton. This is at odds with observed high N2 fixation rates in the oligotrophic North Atlantic where the ratio of nutrients supplied to the surface is elevated in N relative to the average R (16:1). In this study, we investigate several mechanisms to solve this puzzle: iron limitation, phosphorus enhancement by preferential remineralization or stoichiometric diversity of phytoplankton, and dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) utilization. Combining resource competition theory and a global coupled ecosystem-circulation model we find that the additional N and energy investments required for exo-enzymatic break-down of DOP gives N2 fixers a competitive advantage in oligotrophic P-starved regions. Accounting for this mechanism expands the ecological niche of N2-fixers also to regions where the nutrient supply is high in N relative to R, yielding, in our model, a pattern consistent with the observed high N2-fixation rates in the oligotrophic North Atlantic.

Description: Nitrogen fixation is essential for maintaining the marine fixed nitrogen (N) inventory which regulates ocean productivity. Still, environmental controls of marine N2 fixation are not well understood. Growing slowly, N2 fixers are expected to be competitive only where N supply is low relative to phosphorus (P) with respect to the cellular N:P ratio of non-fixing phytoplankton (R). This is at odds with observed high N2 fixation rates in the oligotrophic North Atlantic where the surface nutrient supply is elevated in N relative to P. Using resource competition theory and a global coupled ecosystem-circulation model, we show that the ability of N2 fixers to invest additional N into the exo-enzymatic break-down of dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) gives them a competitive advantage in oligotrophic regions of low P supply. Accounting for this mechanism expands the modeled ecological niche of marine N2 fixers and explains the observed pattern of N2 fixation in the oligotrophic North Atlantic.

Description: The Baltic Sea is a marginal sea, located in a highly industrialized region in Central Northern Europe. Saltwater inflows from the North Sea and associated ventilation of the deep exert crucial control on the entire Baltic Sea ecosystem. This study explores the impact of anticipated sea level changes on the dynamics of those inflows. We use a numerical oceanic general circulation model covering both the Baltic and the North Sea. The model successfully retraces the essential ventilation dynamics throughout the period 1961–2007. A suite of idealized experiments suggests that rising sea level is associated with intensified ventilation as saltwater inflows become stronger, longer, and more frequent. Expressed quantitatively as a salinity increase in the deep central Baltic Sea, we find that a sea level rise of 1 m triggers a saltening of more than 1 PSU. This substantial increase in ventilation is the consequence of the increasing cross section in the Danish Straits amplified by a reduction of vertical mixing

Description: Highlights: • Strong longitudinal variability occurs in the North Atlantic subtropical gyre. • Allochthonous supply of semilabile DOP may occur in the western oligotrophic gyre. • Semilabile DON supply does not provide a significant direct N source. Abstract: We combine modelled timescales of ocean circulation with satellite-retrieved and in situ biogeochemical observations collected in spring along 24.5°N in the subtropical North Atlantic. Longitudinal gradients in the distribution of dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) and dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) and in other biogeochemical parameters are associated with the longitudinal variability in physical forcing and in the eastward increase of the timescale of advective transport. The western (West of 70°W) and eastern (East of 30°W) margins of the subtropical gyre appear influenced by the productive regions of the Gulf Stream and upwelling zones off Africa, respectively. Within the oligotrophic zone between 70 and 31°W, at approximately 46°W there is a change in the nutrient-controlling factors from the western ultra- oligotrophic with barely any seasonal cycle to an eastern oligotrophic environment with a more intense mixed layer dynamics. The allochthonous supply of semilabile-DOP may be important in the western sector of the oligotrophic gyre (approx. 70–46°W) where, together with the combination of shallow mixed layers, almost permanent stratification and high water temperatures create a niche for the growth of diazotrophs, which we detect from space. Turnover estimates exceeding 3 yr suggest that even re- active fractions of DON are unlikely to be a significant N source. In the eastern sector of the oligotrophic gyre (46–31°W), transit timescales longer than 3 years suggest that the allochthonous supply of the semilabile DOP is negligible due to its exhaustion. Here, an intense mixed layer dynamics favours nu- trient supply from below the mixed layer. We speculate that longitudinal variability in physical forcing and gradients in the timescale of advection, combined with distinct turnover timescales of reactive fractions of DON and DOP, drive diverse phytoplankton assemblages and surface nitrogen fixation gra- dients across our region of investigation.