Description: Following the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, the Dipartimento della Protezione Civile Italiana (DPC), appointed an International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) to report on the current state of knowledge of short-term prediction and forecasting of tectonic earthquakes and indicate guidelines for utilization of possible forerunners of large earthquakes to drive civil protection actions, including the use of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in the wake of a large earthquake. The ICEF reviewed research on earthquake prediction and forecasting, drawing from developments in seismically active regions worldwide. A prediction is defined as a deterministic statement that a future earthquake will or will not occur in a particular geographic region, time window, and magnitude range, whereas a forecast gives a probability (greater than zero but less than one) that such an event will occur. Earthquake predictability, the degree to which the future occurrence of earthquakes can be determined from the observable behavior of earthquake systems, is poorly understood. This lack of understanding is reflected in the inability to reliably predict large earthquakes in seismically active regions on short time scales. Most proposed prediction methods rely on the concept of a diagnostic precursor; i.e., some kind of signal observable before earthquakes that indicates with high probability the location, time, and magnitude of an impending event. Precursor methods reviewed here include changes in strain rates, seismic wave speeds, and electrical conductivity; variations of radon concentrations in groundwater, soil, and air; fluctuations in groundwater levels; electromagnetic variations near and above Earth's surface; thermal anomalies; anomalous animal behavior; and seismicity patterns. The search for diagnostic precursors has not yet produced a successful short-term prediction scheme. Therefore, this report focuses on operational earthquake forecasting as the principle means for gathering and disseminating authoritative information about time-dependent seismic hazards to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. On short time scales of days and weeks, earthquake sequences show clustering in space and time, as indicated by the aftershocks triggered by large events. Statistical descriptions of clustering explain many features observed in seismicity catalogs, and they can be used to construct forecasts that indicate how earthquake probabilities change over the short term. Properly applied, short-term forecasts have operational utility; for example, in anticipating aftershocks that follow large earthquakes. Although the value of long-term forecasts for ensuring seismic safety is clear, the interpretation of short-term forecasts is problematic, because earthquake probabilities may vary over orders of magnitude but typically remain low in an absolute sense (〈 1% per day). Translating such low-probability forecasts into effective decision-making is a difficult challenge. Reports on the current utilization operational forecasting in earthquake risk management were compiled for six countries with high seismic risk: China, Greece, Italy, Japan, Russia, United States. Long-term models are currently the most important forecasting tools for civil protection against earthquake damage, because they guide earthquake safety provisions of building codes, performance-based seismic design, and other risk-reducing engineering practices, such as retrofitting to correct design flaws in older buildings. Short-term forecasting of aftershocks is practiced by several countries among those surveyed, but operational earthquake forecasting has not been fully implemented (i.e., regularly updated and on a national scale) in any of them. Based on the experience accumulated in seismically active regions, the ICEF has provided to DPC a set of recommendations on the utilization of operational forecasting in Italy, which may also be useful in other countries. The public should be provided with open sources of information about the short-term probabilities of future earthquakes that are authoritative, scientific, consistent, and timely. Advisories should be based on operationally qualified, regularly updated seismicity forecasting systems that have been rigorously reviewed and updated by experts in the creation, delivery, and utility of earthquake information. The quality of all operational models should be evaluated for reliability and skill by retrospective testing, and they should be under continuous prospective testing against established long-term forecasts and alternative time-dependent models. Alert procedures should be standardized to facilitate decisions at different levels of government and among the public. Earthquake probability thresholds should be established to guide alert levels based on objective analysis of costs and benefits, as well as the less tangible aspects of value-of-information, such as gains in psychological preparedness and resilience. The principles of effective public communication established by social science research should be applied to the delivery of seismic hazard information.

Description: Published

Description: 315-391

Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale

Description: JCR Journal

Description: open

Description: Introduction Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a significant problem, and lifestyle modifications including self-management are important. We have developed a structured individual-based lifestyle education (SILE) programme for T2D. With attention now being paid to techniques to change behaviour, we recently developed a behavioural type-specific SILE (BETSILE) programme. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the BETSILE programme compared with the SILE programme for reducing glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) in patients with T2D and special behavioural types by a cluster randomised controlled trial. Methods and analysis This is a 6-month cluster randomised controlled trial with two intervention arms (BETSILE vs SILE) provided in a medical care setting by randomising registered dietitians for patients with T2D aged 20–79 years. Patients’ behavioural types were classified into four types (BT1 to BT4) using an assessment sheet. We will perform independent trials for BT1 and BT2. The primary endpoint is a change from the baseline HbA1c value at 6 months. Differences between the SILE and BETSILE groups will be primarily analysed following the intention-to-treat principle. Crude and multivariate adjusted effects will be examined after adjusting for covariates, using a general linear mixed-effects model for continuous variables and a logistic regression mixed-effects model for dichotomous variables. Sample sizes needed were calculated assuming effect sizes of 0.42 and 0.33 for BT1 and BT2, respectively, an intraclass correlation of 0.02, a significance level of 5% (two-sided), a power of 80%, and equal allocation of clusters to the two arms, with each cluster having three BT1 patients for the SILE and BETSILE arms and six BT2 patients for the SILE and BETSILE arms. We will need 16 dietitians for each arm, and a total 288 patients will be required. Ethics and dissemination This study has been approved by the Medical Ethical Committee of Teikyo University (No.15–222). Findings will be disseminated widely through peer-reviewed publications, etc. Trial registration number UMIN 000023087; Pre-results.

Description: Human mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) are multipotent and exert anti-inflammatory effects, but the underlying mechanism remains to be elucidated. In the current study, we investigated the regulatory mechanism of regulatory T cell (Treg) induction through the growth factors released by human MSCs. Human naive CD4 + T cells were stimulated with anti-CD3/28 Abs and cocultured with human MSC culture supernatant for 48 h. The proliferation and cytokine production of CD4 + T cells and surface molecule expression on CD4 + T cells were evaluated. The proliferation of anti-CD3/28 Abs–stimulated CD4 + T cells was suppressed by the addition of human MSC culture supernatant; in addition, the production of IL-10 and IL-4 increased. The human MSC culture supernatant induced CD4 + FOXP3 + Tregs that expressed CD25, CTLA-4, glucocorticoid-induced TNFR-related protein, insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-1R, and IGF-2R, showing antiproliferative activity against CD4 + T cells. In addition, the induction of Tregs by human MSC culture supernatant was enhanced by the addition of IGF and suppressed by the inhibition of IGF-1R. In contrast, a significant amount of IGF binding protein (IGFBP)-4, an inhibitor of IGF action, was detected in the human MSC culture supernatant. After neutralization of IGFBP-4 in the human MSC culture supernatant by anti–IGFBP-4 Ab, Treg numbers increased significantly. Thus, our results raise the possibility that human MSC actions also involve a negative-regulatory mechanism that suppresses Treg proliferation by releasing IGFBP-4. The results of this study suggest that regulation of IGF may be important for treatments using human MSCs.

Description: We present optical photometry and spectroscopy of the broad-lined Type Ic supernova (SN Ic-BL) PTF10qts, which was discovered as part of the Palomar Transient Factory. The SN was located in a dwarf galaxy of magnitude r  = 21.1 at a redshift z  = 0.0907. We find that the R -band light curve is a poor proxy for bolometric data and use photometric and spectroscopic data to construct and constrain the bolometric light curve. The derived bolometric magnitude at maximum light is M bol  = –18.51 ± 0.2 mag, comparable to that of SN 1998bw ( M bol  = –18.7 mag) which was associated with a gamma-ray burst (GRB). PTF10qts is one of the most luminous SNe Ic-BL observed without an accompanying GRB. We estimate the physical parameters of the explosion using data from our programme of follow-up observations, finding that it produced a larger mass of radioactive nickel compared to other SNe Ic-BL with similar inferred ejecta masses and kinetic energies. The progenitor of the event was likely an ~20 M star.

Description: Introduction Severe subjective psychosomatic symptoms (SPS) in adolescents are a major public health concern, and lifestyle modification interventions for reducing SPS are important topics. Recently, we developed a school-based lifestyle education involving parents for reducing SPS of adolescents (SPRAT), an improved version of the programme from our previous study Programme for adolescent of lifestyle education in Kumamoto (PADOK). This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of SPRAT in reducing SPS among adolescents. Methods and analysis This is a 6-month, cluster randomised clinical trial with two intervention arms (SPRAT vs usual school education). The study population will be composed of middle school students (aged 12–14 years) with their parents/guardians in Japan. SPRAT is expected to be a more powerful programme than PADOK as it reinforces the role of parent participation. The primary endpoint will be the change from baseline SPS scores to those obtained after 6 months. Between-group differences will be analysed following the intention-to-treat principle. Crude and multivariate adjusted effects will be examined using a general linear mixed-effects model for continuous variables and a logistic regression model for dichotomous variables. The sample size required was determined based on the information needed to detect a difference in the primary outcome with a significance level of 5% and power of 80% under the assumptions of 40 students per cluster (assuming the same sample size for each cluster), an effect size of 0.3 and an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.02. In total, participation by 28 schools (14 schools in each arm) (students: n=1120) will be needed. Ethics and dissemination This study was approved by the Medical Ethical Committee of Minami Kyushu University in 2017 (number 137). The findings will be disseminated widely through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations. Trial registration number UMIN000026715 ; Pre-results.