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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2011-04-01
    Description: For more than a century, the origin and evolution of the set of cuspate forelands known as the Carolina Capes--Hatteras, Lookout, Fear, and Romain--off the eastern coast of the United States have been discussed and debated. The consensus conceptual model is not only that these capes existed through much or all of the Holocene transgression, but also that their number has not changed. Here we describe bathymetric, lithologic, seismic, and chronologic data that suggest another cape may have existed between Capes Hatteras and Lookout during the early to middle Holocene. This cape likely formed at the distal end of the Neuse-Tar-Pamlico fluvial system during the early Holocene transgression, when this portion of the shelf was flooded ca. 9 cal (calibrated) kyr B.P., and was probably abandoned by ca. 4 cal kyr B.P., when the shoreline attained its present general configuration. Previously proposed mechanisms for cape formation suggest that the large-scale, rhythmic pattern of the Carolina Capes arose from a hydrodynamic template or the preexisting geologic framework. Numerical modeling, however, suggests that the number and spacing of capes can be dynamic, and that a coast can self-organize in response to a high-angle-wave instability in shoreline shape. In shoreline evolution model simulations, smaller cuspate forelands are subsumed by larger neighbors over millennial time scales through a process of cape capture.' The suggested former cape in Raleigh Bay represents the first interpreted geological evidence of dynamic abandonment suggested by the self-organization hypothesis. Cape capture may be a widespread process in coastal environments with large-scale rhythmic shoreline features; its preservation in the sedimentary record will vary according to geologic setting, physical processes, and sea-level history.
    Print ISSN: 0091-7613
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-2682
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2014. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ecological Modelling 276 (2014): 38–50, doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.01.005.
    Description: Sea-level rise and human development pose significant threats to shorebirds, particularly for species that utilize barrier island habitat. The piping plover (Charadrius melodus) is a federally-listed shorebird that nests on barrier islands and rapidly responds to changes in its physical environment, making it an excellent species with which to model how shorebird species may respond to habitat change related to sea-level rise and human development. The uncertainty and complexity in predicting sea-level rise, the responses of barrier island habitats to sea-level rise, and the responses of species to sea-level rise and human development necessitate a modeling approach that can link species to the physical habitat features that will be altered by changes in sea level and human development. We used a Bayesian network framework to develop a model that links piping plover nest presence to the physical features of their nesting habitat on a barrier island that is impacted by sea-level rise and human development, using three years of data (1999, 2002, and 2008) from Assateague Island National Seashore in Maryland. Our model performance results showed that we were able to successfully predict nest presence given a wide range of physical conditions within the model's dataset. We found that model predictions were more successful when the ranges of physical conditions included in model development were varied rather than when those physical conditions were narrow. We also found that all model predictions had fewer false negatives (nests predicted to be absent when they were actually present in the dataset) than false positives (nests predicted to be present when they were actually absent in the dataset), indicating that our model correctly predicted nest presence better than nest absence. These results indicated that our approach of using a Bayesian network to link specific physical features to nest presence will be useful for modeling impacts of sea-level rise or human-related habitat change on barrier islands. We recommend that potential users of this method utilize multiple years of data that represent a wide range of physical conditions in model development, because the model performed less well when constructed using a narrow range of physical conditions. Further, given that there will always be some uncertainty in predictions of future physical habitat conditions related to sea-level rise and/or human development, predictive models will perform best when developed using multiple, varied years of data input.
    Description: Funding for the research presented in this paper was provided by the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative and the U.S. Geological Survey.
    Keywords: Bayesian network ; Development ; Habitat ; Piping plover ; Sea-level rise ; Shorebird
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (2007): F03016, doi:10.1029/2006JF000666.
    Description: We employ a numerical model to study the development of sorted bed forms under a variety of hydrodynamic and sedimentary conditions. Results indicate that increased variability in wave height decreases the growth rate of the features and can potentially give rise to complicated, a priori unpredictable, behavior. This happens because the system responds to a change in wave characteristics by attempting to self-organize into a patterned seabed of different geometry and spacing. The new wavelength might not have enough time to emerge before a new change in wave characteristics occurs, leading to less regular seabed configurations. The new seabed configuration is also highly dependent on the preexisting morphology, which further limits the possibility of predicting future behavior. For the same reasons, variability in the mean current magnitude and direction slows down the growth of features and causes patterns to develop that differ from classical sorted bed forms. Spatial variability in grain size distribution and different types of net sediment aggradation/degradation can also result in the development of sorted bed forms characterized by a less regular shape. Numerical simulations qualitatively agree with observed geometry (spacing and height) of sorted bed forms. Also in agreement with observations is that at shallower depths, sorted bed forms are more likely to be affected by changes in the forcing conditions, which might also explain why, in shallow waters, sorted bed forms are described as ephemeral features. Finally, simulations indicate that the different sorted bed form shapes and patterns observed in the field might not necessarily be related to diverse physical mechanisms. Instead, variations in sorted bed form characteristics may result from variations in local hydrodynamic and/or sedimentary conditions.
    Description: G.C., M.O.G., and T.M.H. acknowledge funding from the (New Zealand) Foundation for Research, Science and Technology (contract C01X0401). The National Science Foundation (OCE0452178) supported A.B.M.
    Keywords: Self-organization ; Sorted bed forms ; Numerical modeling
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 246 (2007): 120-136, doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2006.10.030.
    Description: The Hudson Shelf Valley (HSV) is the largest physiographic feature on the U.S. mid-Atlantic continental shelf. The 150-km long valley is the submerged extension of the ancestral Hudson River Valley that connects to the Hudson Canyon. Unlike other incised valleys on the mid-Atlantic shelf, it has not been infilled with sediment during the Holocene. Analyses of multibeam bathymetry, acoustic backscatter intensity, and high-resolution seismic reflection profiles reveal morphologic and stratigraphic evidence for a catastrophic meltwater flood event that formed the modern HSV. The valley and its distal deposits record a discrete flood event that carved 15-m high banks, formed a 120-km2 field of 3- to 6-m high bedforms, and deposited a subaqueous delta on the outer shelf. The HSV is inferred to have been carved initially by precipitation and meltwater runoff during the advance of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, and later by the drainage of early proglacial lakes through stable spillways. A flood resulting from the failure of the terminal moraine dam at the Narrows between Staten Island and Long Island, New York, allowed glacial lakes in the Hudson and Ontario basins to drain across the continental shelf. Water level changes in the Hudson River basin associated with the catastrophic drainage of glacial lakes Iroquois, Vermont, and Albany around 11,450 14C year BP (~ 13,350 cal BP) may have precipitated dam failure at the Narrows. This 3200 km3 discharge of freshwater entered the North Atlantic proximal to the Gulf Stream and may have affected thermohaline circulation at the onset of the Intra-Allerød Cold Period. Based on bedform characteristics and fluvial morphology in the HSV, the maximum freshwater flux during the flood event is estimated to be ~ 0.46 Sv for a duration of ~ 80 days.
    Description: Support for N. Driscoll was provided by the Office of Naval Research and the National Science Foundation
    Keywords: Continental shelf ; Glacial lakes ; Meltwater ; Sea-level rise ; Transgression ; Wisconsinan
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Journal of Coastal Research 26 (2010): 176-183, doi:10.2112/08-1102.1.
    Description: In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey began conducting scientific assessments of coastal vulnerability to potential future sea- and lake-level changes in 22 National Park Service sea- and lakeshore units. Coastal park units chosen for the assessment included a variety of geological and physical settings along the U.S. Atlantic, Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of Alaska, Caribbean, and Great Lakes shorelines. This research is motivated by the need to understand and anticipate coastal changes caused by accelerating sea-level rise, as well as lake-level changes caused by climate change, over the next century. The goal of these assessments is to provide information that can be used to make long-term (decade to century) management decisions. Here we analyze the results of coastal vulnerability assessments for several coastal national park units. Index-based assessments quantify the likelihood that physical changes may occur based on analysis of the following variables: tidal range, ice cover, wave height, coastal slope, historical shoreline change rate, geomorphology, and historical rate of relative sea- or lake-level change. This approach seeks to combine a coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, and it provides a measure of the system's potential vulnerability to the effects of sea- or lake-level change. Assessments for 22 park units are combined to evaluate relationships among the variables used to derive the index. Results indicate that Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico parks have the highest vulnerability rankings relative to other park regions. A principal component analysis reveals that 99% of the index variability can be explained by four variables: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, water-level change rate, and mean significant wave height. Tidal range, ice cover, and historical shoreline change are not as important when the index is evaluated at large spatial scales (thousands of kilometers).
    Keywords: Shoreline change ; Geomorphology ; Tidal range ; Mean annual ice cover ; Mean significant wave height ; Relative sea-level rise ; Lake-level change ; Coastal slope ; Coastal vulnerability index ; National Park Service ; Great Lakes
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011): F02009, doi:10.1029/2010JF001891.
    Description: Sea level rise during the 21st century will have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, human development, and infrastructure in coastal areas. The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contributes to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Here we explore and demonstrate the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments of prediction uncertainty. A BN is used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results demonstrate that the probability of shoreline retreat increases with higher rates of sea level rise. Where more specific information is included, the probability of shoreline change increases in a number of cases, indicating more confident predictions. A hindcast evaluation of the BN indicates that the network correctly predicts 71% of the cases. Evaluation of the results using Brier skill and log likelihood ratio scores indicates that the network provides shoreline change predictions that are better than the prior probability. Shoreline change outcomes indicating stability (−1 〈 rate 〈 1 m/yr) or erosion (rate 〈 −1 m/yr) tend to occur for two sets of input scenarios. Stable shoreline change rates occur mainly for low rates of relative sea level rise and occur in low-vulnerability geomorphic settings. Rates indicating erosion result for cases where the rate of relative sea level rise is high and moderate-to-high vulnerability geomorphic settings occur. In contrast, accretion (rate 〉 1 m/yr) was not well predicted. We find that BNs can assimilate important factors contributing to coastal change in response to sea level rise and can make quantitative, probabilistic predictions that can be applied to coastal management decisions.
    Description: Funding for this work was provided by the USGS Coastal and Marine Geology and Global Change Research programs.
    Keywords: Sea level rise ; Shoreline change ; Bayesian networks
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2018. This is the author's version of the work and is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Science of The Total Environment 640-641 (2018): 1148-1156, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.235.
    Description: Salt marshes are important coastal environments that provide key ecological services. As sea level rise has accelerated globally, concerns about the ability of salt marshes to survive submergence are increasing. Previous estimates of likely survival of salt marshes were based on ratios of sea level rise to marsh platform accretion. Here we took advantage of an unusual, long-term (1979-2015), spatially detailed comparison of changes in a representative New England salt marsh to provide an empirical estimate of habitat losses based on actual measurements. We show prominent changes in habitat mosaic within the marsh, consistent and coincident with increased submergence and coastal erosion. Model results suggest that at current rates of sea level rise, marsh platform accretion, habitat loss, and with the limitation of the widespread “coastal squeeze”, the entire ecosystem might disappear by the beginning of the next century, a fate that might be likely for many salt marshes elsewhere.
    Description: Ivan Valiela and Elizabeth Elmstrom were supported by Woods Hole Sea Grant, NOAA grant no. NA14OAR4170074. Javier Lloret was supported by a Rosenthal Postdoctoral Fellowship Award from the Marine Biological Laboratory, and by a Northeast Climate Science Center Fellowship. Tynan Bowyer was supported by a Metcalf Research Fellowship of the University of Chicago. David Remsen was supported by MBL Cox and Bernstein funds.
    Description: 2020-06-07
    Keywords: Salt marsh loss ; Sea level rise ; Ecological services ; Vegetation mosaics ; Coastal squeeze
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Marine Geology 348 (2014): 113-130, doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2013.11.011.
    Description: The inner continental shelf off the northern Outer Banks of North Carolina was mapped using sidescan sonar, interferometric swath bathymetry, and high-resolution chirp and boomer subbottom profiling systems. We use this information to describe the shallow stratigraphy, reinterpret formation mechanisms of some shoal features, evaluate local relative sea-levels during the Late Pleistocene, and provide new constraints, via recent bedform evolution, on regional sediment transport patterns. The study area is approximately 290 km long by 11 km wide, extending from False Cape, Virginia to Cape Lookout, North Carolina, in water depths ranging from 6 to 34 m. Late Pleistocene sedimentary units comprise the shallow geologic framework of this region and determine both the morphology of the inner shelf and the distribution of sediment sources and sinks. We identify Pleistocene sedimentary units beneath Diamond Shoals that may have provided a geologic template for the location of modern Cape Hatteras and earlier paleo-capes during the Late Pleistocene. These units indicate shallow marine deposition 15–25 m below present sea-level. The uppermost Pleistocene unit may have been deposited as recently as Marine Isotope Stage 3, although some apparent ages for this timing may be suspect. Paleofluvial valleys incised during the Last Glacial Maximum traverse the inner shelf throughout the study area and dissect the Late Pleistocene units. Sediments deposited in the valleys record the Holocene transgression and provide insight into the evolutionary history of the barrier-estuary system in this region. The relationship between these valleys and adjacent shoal complexes suggests that the paleo-Roanoke River did not form the Albemarle Shelf Valley complex as previously proposed; a major fluvial system is absent and thus makes the formation of this feature enigmatic. Major shoal features in the study area show mobility at decadal to centennial timescales, including nearly a kilometer of shoal migration over the past 134 yr. Sorted bedforms occupy ~ 1000 km2 of seafloor in Raleigh Bay, and indicate regional sediment transport patterns between Capes Hatteras and Lookout that help explain long-term sediment accumulation and morphologic development. Portions of the inner continental shelf with relatively high sediment abundance are characterized by shoals and shoreface-attached ridges, and where sediment is less abundant, the seafloor is dominated by sorted bedforms. These relationships are also observed in other passive margin settings, suggesting a continuum of shelf morphology that may have broad application for interpreting inner shelf sedimentation patterns.
    Description: Funding for this research was provided by the USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program.
    Keywords: Cape-associated shoals ; Inner shelf sedimentation ; Sea-level change ; Seismic reflection ; Sidescan sonar ; Sorted bedforms
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: This is an open access article, free of all copyright. The definitive version was published in PLoS ONE 11 (2016): e0164979, doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0164979.
    Description: Understanding and managing dynamic coastal landscapes for beach-dependent species requires biological and geological data across the range of relevant environments and habitats. It is difficult to acquire such information; data often have limited focus due to resource constraints, are collected by non-specialists, or lack observational uniformity. We developed an open-source smartphone application called iPlover that addresses these difficulties in collecting biogeomorphic information at piping plover (Charadrius melodus) nest sites on coastal beaches. This paper describes iPlover development and evaluates data quality and utility following two years of collection (n = 1799 data points over 1500 km of coast between Maine and North Carolina, USA). We found strong agreement between field user and expert assessments and high model skill when data were used for habitat suitability prediction. Methods used here to develop and deploy a distributed data collection system have broad applicability to interdisciplinary environmental monitoring and modeling.
    Description: This work was supported by the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative through the U.S. Department of the Interior Hurricane Sandy recovery program under the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013, and the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Geology Program.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Water Resources Research 49 (2013): 6459–6473, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20496.
    Description: Resource managers need to make decisions to plan for future environmental conditions, particularly sea level rise, in the face of substantial uncertainty. Many interacting processes factor in to the decisions they face. Advances in process models and the quantification of uncertainty have made models a valuable tool for this purpose. Long-simulation runtimes and, often, numerical instability make linking process models impractical in many cases. A method for emulating the important connections between model input and forecasts, while propagating uncertainty, has the potential to provide a bridge between complicated numerical process models and the efficiency and stability needed for decision making. We explore this using a Bayesian network (BN) to emulate a groundwater flow model. We expand on previous approaches to validating a BN by calculating forecasting skill using cross validation of a groundwater model of Assateague Island in Virginia and Maryland, USA. This BN emulation was shown to capture the important groundwater-flow characteristics and uncertainty of the groundwater system because of its connection to island morphology and sea level. Forecast power metrics associated with the validation of multiple alternative BN designs guided the selection of an optimal level of BN complexity. Assateague island is an ideal test case for exploring a forecasting tool based on current conditions because the unique hydrogeomorphological variability of the island includes a range of settings indicative of past, current, and future conditions. The resulting BN is a valuable tool for exploring the response of groundwater conditions to sea level rise in decision support.
    Description: This work was funded by the USGS Climate and Land Use Mission Area, Research and Development Program and the USGS Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Geology Program.
    Keywords: Groundwater ; Hydrology ; Bayes ; Bayesian Network ; Emulation ; Decision support
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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