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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Climate adaptation modelling (2022)
    Cham : Springer
    Details Availability
    Keywords: Climatology. ; Natural disasters. ; Ecology—Methodology. ; Bioclimatology. ; Earth sciences. ; Geography.
    Description / Table of Contents: Introduction from DG-CLIMA -- Introduction from the Editors -- Challenges for adaptation modelling -- Hazard, exposure and vulnerability modelling -- Sectoral models for impact and adaptation assessment -- Adaptation modelling and policy action -- Conclusions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (xvii, 238 Seiten) , Diagramme, Illustrationen
    ISBN: 9783030862114
    Series Statement: Springer Climate
    URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86211-4
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-86211-4
    Language: English
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Climate Adaptation Modelling (2022)
    Cham : Springer International Publishing AG
    Details Availability
    Keywords: Electronic books
    Description / Table of Contents: Intro -- Preface -- Introduction from DG-CLIMA -- Introduction from the Editors -- Contents -- Part I Challenges for Adaptation Modelling -- 1 Modelling the Cost and Benefits of Adaptation. A Targeted Review on Integrated Assessment Models with a Special Focus on Adaptation Modelling -- Introduction -- Conclusions and Recommendation -- References -- 2 Cross-Sectoral Challenges for Adaptation Modelling -- Introduction -- The Grace Model -- Implications of National and Global Dependencies in Adaptation -- Adaptation in the Forestry Sector and the Global Impacts -- Adaptation from a Local Perspective and the National Impacts -- Adaptation to Heat Stress -- Challenges for Adaptation Modelling -- References -- 3 Climate Services Supporting Adaptation Modelling -- The European Research and Innovation Roadmap for Climate Services -- What Has Been Accomplished and What Are Still Seen as Gaps? -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 4 Impact-Oriented Climate Information Selection -- Introduction -- Climate Scenario Storylines: The Dutch Climate Change Scenarios -- Climate Risk Storylines -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 5 On the Evaluation of Climate Change Impact Models for Adaptation Decisions -- Introduction -- Standard Evaluation Questions We Can (and Should) Ask Using Global Sensitivity Analysis -- Do the Parameters That Reflect Possible Intervention Levers Adequately Control the Model Output? -- Are Dominant Uncertainties Changing Along the Projection Timeline? -- Are Dominant Modelled Processes Changing with Climate? -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- 6 Stress-Testing Adaptation Options -- Introduction -- Robustness and Resilience Frameworks -- Stress-Testing Methods -- Physical Experiments -- Systems Modelling -- Conclusions and Recommendations -- References.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    Pages: 1 online resource (243 pages)
    ISBN: 9783030862114
    Series Statement: Springer Climate Ser.
    URL: https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/kxp/detail.action?docID=6877773
    Language: English
    Note: Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources
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  • 3
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    Erratum to: Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario (2011)
    Springer
    In:  Climate Dynamics, 37 (11-12). p. 2551.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric "target" concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the projected concentration pathways of aerosol in the next decades control the evolution of surface ocean biogeochemistry in the second half of this century more than the specific pathways of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1144-8
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 4
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    Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario (2011)
    Springer
    In:  Climate Dynamics, 37 (9-10). pp. 1929-1947.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric "target" concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the projected concentration pathways of aerosol in the next decades control the evolution of surface ocean biogeochemistry in the second half of this century more than the specific pathways of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1079-0
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 5
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    Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates (2018)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-30
    Description: Western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) model tracks are analyzed in two large multimodelensembles, spanning a large variety of models and multiple future climate scenarios. Two methodologiesare used to synthesize the properties of TC tracks in this large data set: cluster analysis and mass momentellipses. First, the models’ TC tracks are compared to observed TC tracks’ characteristics, and a subset ofthe models is chosen for analysis, based on the tracks’ similarity to observations and sample size. Potentialchanges in track types in a warming climate are identified by comparing the kernel smoothed probabilitydistributions of various track variables in historical and future scenarios using a Kolmogorov-Smirnovsignificance test. Two track changes are identified. The first is a statistically significant increase in thenorth-south expansion, which can also be viewed as a poleward shift, as TC tracks are prevented fromexpanding equatorward due to the weak Coriolis force near the equator. The second change is an eastwardshift in the storm tracks that occur near the central Pacific in one of the multimodel ensembles, indicatinga possible increase in the occurrence of storms near Hawaii in a warming climate. The dependence of theresults on which model and future scenario are considered emphasizes the necessity of including multiplemodels and scenarios when considering future changes in TC characteristics.
    Description: Published
    Description: 9721–9744
    Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
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    Global mean climate and main patterns of variability in the CMCC-CM2 coupled model (2019)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-22
    Description: Euro‐Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change coupled climate model (CMCC‐CM2) represents the new family of the global coupled climate models developed and used at CMCC. It is based on the atmospheric, land and sea ice components from the Community Earth System Model coupled with the global ocean model Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean. This study documents the model components, the coupling strategy, particularly for the oceanic, atmospheric, and sea ice components, and the overall model ability in reproducing the observed mean climate and main patterns of interannual variability. As a first step toward a more comprehensive, process‐oriented, validation of the model, this work analyzes a 200‐year simulation performed under constant forcing corresponding to present‐day climate conditions. In terms of mean climate, the model is able to realistically reproduce the main patterns of temperature, precipitation, and winds. Specifically, we report improvements in the representation of the sea surface temperature with respect to the previous version of the model. In terms of mean atmospheric circulation features, we notice a realistic simulation of upper tropospheric winds and midtroposphere geopotential eddies. The oceanic heat transport and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation satisfactorily compare with present‐day observations and estimates from global ocean reanalyses. The sea ice patterns and associated seasonal variations are realistically reproduced in both hemispheres, with a better skill in winter. Main weaknesses of the simulated climate are related with the precipitation patterns, specifically in the tropical regions with large dry biases over the Amazon basin. Similarly, the seasonal precipitation associated with the monsoons, mostly over Asia, is weaker than observed. The main patterns of interannual variability in terms of dominant empirical orthogonal functions are faithfully reproduced, mostly in the Northern Hemisphere winter. In the tropics the main teleconnection patterns associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation and with the Indian Ocean Dipole are also in good agreement with observations.
    Description: Published
    Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 7
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    Mediterranean extreme precipitation: a multi-model assessment (2019)
    Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-14
    Description: Abstract Exploiting the added value of the ensemble of high-resolution model simulations provided by the Med- CORDEX coordinated initiative, an updated assessment of Mediterranean extreme precipitation events as represented in different observational, reanalysis and modelling datasets is presented. A spatiotemporal characterisation of the long-term statistics of extreme precipitation is performed, using a number of different diagnostic indices. Employing a novel approach based on the timing of extreme precipitation events a number of physically consistent subregions are defined. The comparison of different diagnostics over the Mediterranean domain and physically homogeneous sub-domains is presented and discussed, focussing on the relative impact of several model configuration features (resolution, coupling, physical parameterisations) on the performance in reproducing extreme precipitation events. It is found that the agreement between the observed and modelled long-term statistics of extreme precipitation is more sensitive to the model physics, in particular convective parameterisation, than to other model configurations such as resolution and coupling.
    Description: Published
    Description: 901-913
    Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Extreme precipitation · Mediterranean climate · Regional climate modelling ; Mediterranean climate ·
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 8
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    Tropical cyclone activity in a warmer climate as simulated by a high-resolution coupled general circulation model: changes in frequency and air-sea interaction. (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: This study investigates the possible changes that the greenhouse global warming might generate in the character- istics of the tropical cyclones (TCs). The analysis has been performed using climate scenario simulations carried out with a fully coupled high–resolution global general circulation model (INGV-SXG) with a T106 atmospheric resolution. The capability of the model to reproduce a reasonably realistic TC climatology has been assessed by comparing the model results from a simulation of the XX Century with observations. The model appears to be able to simulate tropical cyclone-like vortices with many features similar to the observed TCs. The simulated TC activity exhibits realistic geographical distribution, seasonal modulation and interannual variability, suggesting that the model is able to reproduce the major basic mechanisms that link the TC occurrence with the large scale circulation. The results from the climate scenarios reveal a substantial general reduction of the TC frequency when the atmospheric CO2 concentration is doubled and quadrupled. The reduction appears particularly evident for the tropical north west Pacific (NWP) and north Atlantic (ATL). In the NWP the weaker TC activity seems to be associated with a reduced amount of convective instabilities. In the ATL region the weaker TC activity seems to be due to both the increased stability of the atmosphere and a stronger vertical wind shear. Despite the generally reduced TC activity, there is evidence of increased rainfall associated with the simulated cyclones. Using the new fully coupled CMCC model (CMCC_MED), with a T159 atmospheric resolution, we found a significant modulation of the Ocean Heat Transport (OHT) induced by the TC activity. Thus the possible changes that greenhouse induced global warming during 21st century might generate in the characteristics of the TC-induced OHT have been analyzed.
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: Wien
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: open
    Keywords: Tropical Cyclones ; Climate ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Oral presentation
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  • 9
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    The role of ocean dynamics on NAO variability under global warming conditions (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this study, two numerical simulations of the 20th Century climate performed with two global GCM are analysed, with the ultimate goal of isolating the impact of oceanic mesoscale features on the climate of the euro- mediterranean region, and its interannual variability. In the first experiment (L), a T159 atmosphere (equivalent to ∼80 Km horizontal resolution) is coupled to a 2x2- degree global ocean model, with a locally enhanced 0.5-degree resolution over the Mediterranean Sea region. In the second experiment (H), the same T159 atmosphere is coupled to a global ocean model regional high-resolution 1/16-degree (∼7 Km) ocean model for the Mediterranea Sea, which is connected to a low-resolution OGCM for the global ocean (identical to the ocean model used in L) . Thus, in H, as far as the Mediterranean area is concerned, the atmosphere is coupled to an ocean model which resolves mesoscale features (“turbulent” ocean), whereas in L the atmosphere interacts with a more “laminar” oceanic system. Since these two experiments are identical except for the resolution of the ocean model over the Mediterranean Sea , the systematic comparison of H and L will allow the assessment of the net effects on the climate of the Euro-Mediterranean region from explicitly resolving mesoscale oceanic features in the coupled model.
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: Zurich
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: open
    Keywords: Mediterranean Sea ; eddies ; climate ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Poster session
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  • 10
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    Effect ofTropicalCyclones on Ocean Heat Transport as  simulated by aHigh Resolution Coupled GCM (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: This study investigates the Tropical Cyclone (TC) effect on the northern hemisphere Ocean Heat Transport (OHT) and the possible changes that greenhouse induced global warming might generate in the characteristics of the TC-induced OHT (TCiOHT). The analysis has been performed using 20C3M (20th Century) and A1B (21st Century) IPCC scenario climate simulations obtained running a fully coupled high-resolution global general circulation model named CMCC_MED. The Atmospheric model component has a T159 horizontal resolution and 31 vertical levels. The Ocean model component has a horizontal resolution ranging from 2 degrees to 0.5 degrees near the equator and 31 vertical levels. The capability of the model to reproduce a reasonably realistic TC climatology has been assessed by comparing the model results from the simulation of the 20th Century with observations. TC detection method has been implemented thanks to the TC-MIP project. The model appears to be able to simulate tropical cyclone-like vortices with many features similar to the observed TCs. The simulated TC activity exhibits realistic structure, geographical distribution and interannual variability, suggesting that the model is able to reproduce the major basic mechanisms that link the TC activity with the large scale circulation. The TC-induced ocean cooling is well represented and the resulting column-integrated ocean heating makes the poleward OHT larger in the subtropics and decreases the poleward heat transport out of the deep tropics. This effect, investigated looking at the 100 most intense Northern Hemisphere TCs, is strongly correlated to the TC-induced momentum flux at the surface of the ocean: the winds associated to the TCs significantly weaken the trade winds in the 5-18N latitude belt and reinforce them in the 18-30N band. TCs frequency and intensity appear to be substantially stationary through the whole 1950-2069 period. The effect of the TCs on the OHT is overall less pronounced in the 21st century when compared to the 20th century.
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: Tucson - Arizona
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: open
    Keywords: Tropical cyclones ; ocean heat transport ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Oral presentation
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