Description: The Arctic is warming at twice the global average speed, and the warming-induced increases in biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emissions from Arctic plants are expected to be drastic. The current global models' estimations of minimal BVOC emissions from the Arctic are based on very few observations and have been challenged increasingly by field data. This study applied a dynamic ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, as a platform to investigate short-term and long-term BVOC emission responses to Arctic climate warming. Field observations in a subarctic tundra heath with long-term (13-year) warming treatments were extensively used for parameterizing and evaluating BVOC-related processes (photosynthesis, emission responses to temperature and vegetation composition). We propose an adjusted temperature (T) response curve for Arctic plants with much stronger T sensitivity than the commonly used algorithms for large-scale modelling. The simulated emission responses to 2 °C warming between the adjusted and original T response curves were evaluated against the observed warming responses (WRs) at short-term scales. Moreover, the model responses to warming by 4 and 8 °C were also investigated as a sensitivity test. The model showed reasonable agreement to the observed vegetation CO2 fluxes in the main growing season as well as day-to-day variability of isoprene and monoterpene emissions. The observed relatively high WRs were better captured by the adjusted T response curve than by the common one. During 1999?2012, the modelled annual mean isoprene and monoterpene emissions were 20 and 8 mg C/m**2/yr with an increase by 55 and 57 % for 2 °C summertime warming, respectively. Warming by 4 and 8 °C for the same period further elevated isoprene emission for all years, but the impacts on monoterpene emissions levelled off during the last few years.

Description: Secondary organic aerosol particles (SOA) are important climate forcers, especially in otherwise clean environments such as the boreal forest. There are, however, major uncertainties in the mechanisms behind the formation of SOA, and in order to predict the growth and abundance of SOA at different conditions, process-based understanding is needed. In this study, the processes behind new particle formation (NPF) events and subsequent growth of these particles in the northern Europe sub-Arctic forest region are explored with the one-dimensional column trajectory model ADCHEM. The results from the model are compared with particle number size distribution measurements from Pallas Atmosphere-Ecosystem Supersite in Northern Finland. The model was able to reproduce the observed growth of the newly formed particles if a small fraction of the emitted monoterpenes that are oxidized by O3 and OH undergo autoxidation and form highly oxidized multifunctional organic molecules (HOMs) with low or extremely low volatility. The modeled particles originating from the NPF events (diameter 〈 100 nm) are composed predominantly of HOMs. While the model seems to capture the growth of the newly formed particles between 1.5 and ~ 20 nm in diameter, it underestimated the particle growth between ~ 20 and 80 nm in diameter. Due to the high fraction of HOMs in the particle phase, the oxygen-to-carbon (O : C) atomic ratio of the SOA was nearly 1. This unusually high O : C and the discrepancy between the modeled and observed particle growth might be explained by the fact that the model did not consider any particle-phase reactions involving semi-volatile organic compounds with relatively low O : C. According to the model the phase state of the SOA (assumed either liquid or amorphous solid) had an insignificant effect on the evolution of the particle number size distribution during the NPF events. The results were sensitive to the method used to estimate the vapor pressures of the HOMs. If the HOMs were assumed to be extremely low volatile organic compounds (ELVOCs) or non-volatile the modeled particle growth was substantially higher than when the vapor pressures of the HOMs were estimated based on continuum solvent model calculations using quantum chemical data. Overall, the model was able to capture the main features of the observed formation and growth rates during the studied NPF-events if the HOM mechanism was included.

Description: Northern peatlands store 300–600 Pg C, of which approximately half are underlain by permafrost. Climate warming and, in some regions, soil drying from enhanced evaporation are progressively threatening this large carbon stock. Here, we assess future CO2 and CH4 fluxes from northern peatlands using five land surface models that explicitly include representation of peatland processes. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, northern peatlands are projected to remain a net sink of CO2 and climate neutral for the next three centuries. A shift to a net CO2 source and a substantial increase in CH4 emissions are projected under RCP8.5, which could exacerbate global warming by 0.21°C (range, 0.09–0.49°C) by the year 2300. The true warming impact of peatlands might be higher owing to processes not simulated by the models and direct anthropogenic disturbance. Our study highlights the importance of understanding how future warming might trigger high carbon losses from northern peatlands.