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  • 1
    Keywords: Hochschulschrift
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (68 Blatt = 5 MB)
    Language: English
    Note: Zusammenfassung in deutscher und englischer Sprache
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  • 2
    Keywords: Hochschulschrift
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    Pages: Online-Ressource (123 Seiten = 22 MB) , Diagramme, Karten
    Language: English
    Note: Zusammenfassung in deutscher und englischer Sprache
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2024-04-20
    Description: Long-term predictability of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) is commonly attributed to buoyancy-forced changes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Here we investigate the role of surface wind stress forcing in decadal hindcasts as another source of extratropical North Atlantic SST predictability. For this purpose, a global climate model is forced by reanalysis (ERA-interim) wind stress anomalies over the period 1979-2017. The simulated climate states serve as initial conditions for decadal hindcasts. Significant skill in predicting detrended observed annual SST anomalies is observed over the extratropical central North Atlantic with anomaly correlation coefficients exceeding 0.6 at lead times of 4 to 7 years. The skill is insensitive to the calendar month of initialization and linked to upper-ocean heat content anomalies that lead anomalous SSTs by several years.
    Keywords: Binary Object; Binary Object (File Size); Binary Object (Media Type); Description
    Type: Dataset
    Format: text/tab-separated-values, 36 data points
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  • 4
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 44 (13). pp. 6951-6958.
    Publication Date: 2020-02-06
    Description: Global climate models exhibit large biases in the Southern Ocean. For example, in models Antarctic bottom water is formed mostly through open-ocean deep-convection rather than through shelf convection. Still, the timescale, region, and intensity of deep-convection variability vary widely among models. We investigate the physical controls of this variability in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, where most of the models simulate recurring deep-convection events. We analyzed output from eleven exemplary CMIP5 models and four versions of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). Of several potential physical control parameters that we tested, the ones shared by all these models are: Stratification in the convection region influences the timescale of the deep-convection variability, i.e. models with a strong (weak) stratification vary on long (short) timescales. And, sea ice volume affects the modeled mean state in the Southern Ocean: large (small) sea ice volume is associated with a non-convective (convective) predominant regime.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 5
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    Springer
    In:  Current Climate Change Reports, 3 (3). pp. 163-173.
    Publication Date: 2020-02-06
    Description: The Southern Ocean featured some remarkable changes during the recent decades. For example, large parts of the Southern Ocean, despite rapidly rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, depicted a surface cooling since the 1970s, whereas most of the planet has warmed considerably. In contrast, climate models generally simulate Southern Ocean surface warming when driven with observed historical radiative forcing. The mechanisms behind the surface cooling and other prominent changes in the Southern Ocean sector climate during the recent decades, such as expanding sea ice extent, abyssal warming, and CO2 uptake, are still under debate. Observational coverage is sparse, and records are short but rapidly growing, making the Southern Ocean climate system one of the least explored. It is thus difficult to separate current trends from underlying decadal to centennial scale variability. Here, we present the state of the discussion about some of the most perplexing decadal climate trends in the Southern Ocean during the recent decades along with possible mechanisms and contrast these with an internal mode of Southern Ocean variability present in state-of-the art climate models.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2020-02-06
    Description: Uncertainty in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is analyzed in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections for the twenty-first century; and the different sources of uncertainty (scenario, internal and model) are quantified. Although the uncertainty in future projections of the AMOC index at 30°N is larger in CMIP5 than in CMIP3, the signal-to-noise ratio is comparable during the second half of the century and even larger in CMIP5 during the first half. This is due to a stronger AMOC reduction in CMIP5. At lead times longer than a few decades, model uncertainty dominates uncertainty in future projections of AMOC strength in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 model ensembles. Internal variability significantly contributes only during the first few decades, while scenario uncertainty is relatively small at all lead times. Model uncertainty in future changes in AMOC strength arises mostly from uncertainty in density, as uncertainty arising from wind stress (Ekman transport) is negligible. Finally, the uncertainty in changes in the density originates mostly from the simulation of salinity, rather than temperature. High-latitude freshwater flux and the subpolar gyre projections were also analyzed, because these quantities are thought to play an important role for the future AMOC changes. The freshwater input in high latitudes is projected to increase and the subpolar gyre is projected to weaken. Both the freshening and the gyre weakening likely influence the AMOC by causing anomalous salinity advection into the regions of deep water formation. While the high model uncertainty in both parameters may explain the uncertainty in the AMOC projection, deeper insight into the mechanisms for AMOC is required to reach a more quantitative conclusion.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 7
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    In:  [Poster] In: WCRP Workshop on CMIP5 Climate Model Analysis, 05.-09.03.2012, Hawaii, Honolulu, USA .
    Publication Date: 2013-01-14
    Type: Conference or Workshop Item , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2015-01-12
    Type: Conference or Workshop Item , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 9
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    In:  [Poster] In: SPARC General Assembly 2018, 01.-05.10.2018, Kyoto, Japan .
    Publication Date: 2019-01-07
    Type: Conference or Workshop Item , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 10
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    Springer
    In:  Climate Dynamics, 48 (11-12). pp. 3475-3487.
    Publication Date: 2020-02-06
    Description: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of winter climate variability in the North Atlantic sector. The corresponding index varies on a wide range of timescales, from days and months to decades and beyond. Sub-decadal NAO variability has been well documented, but the underlying mechanism is still under discussion. Other indices of North Atlantic sector climate variability such as indices of sea surface and surface air temperature or Arctic sea ice extent also exhibit pronounced sub-decadal variability. Here, we use sea surface temperature and sea level pressure observations, and the Kiel Climate Model to investigate the dynamics of the sub-decadal NAO variability. The sub-decadal NAO variability is suggested to originate from dynamical large-scale air-sea interactions. The adjustment of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to previous surface heat flux variability provides the memory of the coupled mode. The results stress the role of coupled feedbacks in generating sub-decadal North Atlantic sector climate variability, which is important to multiyear climate predictability in that region
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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