Description: Legal requirement in Europe asks for Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) in European seas, including consideration of trophic interactions and minimization of negative impacts of fishing on food webs and ecosystem functioning. This study presents the first mass-balanced ecosystem model focused on the western Baltic Sea (WBS). Results show that heavy fishing pressure exerted on the WBS has forced top predators such as harbour porpoise and cod to cover their dietary needs by shifting from forage fish to other prey or find food outside of the model area. The model was then developed to explore the dynamics of four future fishery scenarios: (1) business as usual (BAU), (2) maximum sustainable fishing (F = FMSY), (3) half of FMSY, and (4) EBFM with F = 0.5 FMSY for forage fish and F = 0.8 FMSY for other fish. Simulations show that BAU would perpetuate low catches from depleted stocks with a high risk of extinction for harbour porpoise. In contrast, the EBFM scenario would allow the recovery of harbour porpoise, forage fish and cod with increases in catch of herring and cod. EBFM promotes ecosystem resilience to eutrophication and ocean warming, and through the rebuilding of commercial stocks increases by more than three times carbon sequestration compared to BAU. The model provides an interrelated assessment of trophic guilds in the WBS, as required by European law to assess whether European seas are in good environmental status.

Description: Against the background of the UN decade on ecosystem restoration and the new EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030, and in the context of marine spatial planning and complex maritime user conflicts, reliable information on habitat suitability for large-scale restoration is an important prerequisite for implementing conservation management and for supporting successful, sustainable, and ecologically efficient restoration measures. In this study, habitat suitability was assessed using multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) for the restoration of the European oyster, Ostrea edulis, in marine protected areas (MPAs) of the German Bight in the North Sea: Borkum Reef Ground (Borkum Riffgrund, BRG) and Sylt Outer Reef – Eastern German Bight (Sylter Außenriff, SAR). Based on site selection criteria, exclusion and suitability factors for the MCDA were defined. Results were integrated with the available geodata to produce habitat suitability maps for oyster restoration in the area of interest. Suitable as well as unsuitable habitats have been successfully identified for both MPAs: several hundred square kilometres (≥97.2% of BRG) or several thousand square kilometres (≥74.5% of SAR) were classified as ecologically and logistically suitable for oyster restoration measures in the respective MPAs. As oyster restoration is significantly limited by human activities (e.g. bottom trawl fisheries), the management of fisheries is an important prerequisite for successful oyster restoration in both MPAs. Results show that designated fishery management measures will increase the possibilities for oyster restoration. In BRG, our results correspond to the known historical distribution. In SAR, our results significantly exceed the historically known distribution. The habitat suitability analysis will facilitate decision-making regarding ocean use, and will reduce restoration costs through targeted management activities in areas of high suitability and expand species recovery by improving the survival of reintroduced individuals. The habitat suitability analysis procedure is easily adaptable for application to other areas, other species, or other habitat restoration projects, or to other conservation management settings. The software applied is open source and the suitability calculation is described in detail to inform wider applications.