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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2013-04-13
    Description: Probst, W. N., Kloppmann, M., and Kraus, G. Indicator-based status assessment of commercial fish species in the North Sea according to the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 694–706. The EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) is structured into eleven descriptors of good environmental status (GES). For each descriptor the current status of the marine environment should be assessed against its GES using ecosystem criteria and indicators. Within Descriptor 3 (D3) the MSFD addresses the status of exploited fish stocks according to three criteria (exploitation rate, stock size and size structure). This study performed an MSFD-compliant assessment of exploited fish stocks in the North Sea by aggregating data from analytical stock assessments and scientific research surveys to calculate indicator metrics for each criterion within each stock time-series. A stock achieved GES, when each indicator for each criterion had a good status. Of 43 assessed fish stock suggested by the EU Data Collection Framework, 63% (27) achieved GES. Though the MSFD explicitly demands that all exploited fish stocks achieve GES, this demand may be challenged by reality, because the status of exploited stocks depends not only on fishing impacts, but also on environmental conditions and ecological interactions. Therefore an alternative approach based on binomial distributions is presented to define limits for GES at the descriptor level. The implications and pitfalls of the applied assessment methods are discussed.
    Print ISSN: 1054-3139
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9289
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2014-06-18
    Description: Survey-based abundance indices (catch per unit effort, cpue) and harvest ratios (HRs) are usable proxies for spawning-stock biomass and fishing mortality ( F ). Here, we present an easy approach to calculate secondary indicators based on a public dataset. However, the performance of different cpue/HR indicator metrics varied between stocks, and, therefore, the adequate metrics for secondary indicators should be chosen for each stock after careful analysis by experts.
    Print ISSN: 1054-3139
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9289
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2012-04-10
    Description: Probst, W. N., Stelzenmüller, V., and Fock, H. 2012. Using cross-correlations to assess the relationship between time-lagged pressure and state indicators: an exemplary analysis of North Sea fish population indicators. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: 670–681. A sustainable ecosystem-based management, as postulated by the European Union-Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), requires a sound understanding of the cause–effect relationships between human pressures and ecosystem states. In this study, cross-correlations are used to introduce a protocol for the analysis of time-lagged relationships between pressure and state indicators. To perform meaningful cross-correlations, the time-series of the pressure and the state indicator should be prewhitened by fitting autoregressive integrated moving average models to the pressure indicator time-series. This study provides some theoretical examples on the implications of non-prewhitened and prewhitened cross-correlations and exemplifies the use of prewhitened cross-correlations to compare the pressure–state relationship of a well-established indicator suite vs. the relationship of a new indicator proposed under the MSFD. The established indicator suite is fishing mortality ( F ) vs. spawning-stock biomass ( SSB ), the new indicator suite is F vs. the 95% percentile of the length frequency distribution ( L 95 ). The L 95 aims to characterize the proportion of large individuals within a population. The prewhitened cross-correlations for F and SSB are significant for all four analysed species (cod, haddock, saithe, and plaice), the L 95 is correlated with F for cod, haddock, and saithe. However, the L 95 was also influenced by the annual survey catch and recruitment.
    Print ISSN: 1054-3139
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9289
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2015-03-07
    Description: Marine spatial planning (MSP) requires spatially explicit environmental risk assessment (ERA) frameworks with quantitative or probabilistic measures of risk, enabling an evaluation of spatial management scenarios. ERAs comprise the steps of risk identification, risk analysis, and risk evaluation. A review of ERAs in in the context of spatial management revealed a synonymous use of the concepts of risk, vulnerability and impact, a need to account for uncertainty and a lack of a clear link between risk analysis and risk evaluation. In a case study, we addressed some of the identified gaps and predicted the risk of changing the current state of benthic disturbance by bottom trawling due to future MSP measures in the German EEZ of the North Sea. We used a quantitative, dynamic, and spatially explicit approach where we combined a Bayesian belief network with GIS to showcase the steps of risk characterization, risk analysis, and risk evaluation. We distinguished 10 benthic communities and 6 international fishing fleets. The risk analysis produced spatially explicit estimates of benthic disturbance, which was computed as a ratio between relative local mortality by benthic trawling and the recovery potential after a trawl event. Results showed great differences in spatial patterns of benthic disturbance when accounting for different environmental impacts of the respective fleets. To illustrate a risk evaluation process, we simulated a spatial shift of the international effort of two beam trawl fleets, which are affected the most by future offshore wind development. The Bayesian belief network (BN) model was able to predict the proportion of the area where benthic disturbance likely increases. In conclusion, MSP processes should embed ERA frameworks which allow for the integration of multiple risk assessments and the quantification of related risks as well as uncertainties at a common spatial scale.
    Print ISSN: 1054-3139
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9289
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Physics
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