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  • 1
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    Climate-induced changes in the suitable habitat of cold-water corals and commercially important deep-sea fishes in the North Atlantic (2019)
    PANGAEA
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-11
    Description: We used environmental niche modelling along with the best available species occurrence data and environmental parameters to model habitat suitability for key cold-water coral and commercially important deep-sea fish species under present-day (1951-2000) environmental conditions and to forecast changes under severe, high emissions future (2081-2100) climate projections (RCP8.5 scenario) for the North Atlantic Ocean (from 18°N to 76°N and 36°E to 98°W). The VME indicator taxa included Lophelia pertusa , Madrepora oculata, Desmophyllum dianthus, Acanela arbuscula, Acanthogorgia armata, and Paragorgia arborea. The six deep-sea fish species selected were: Coryphaenoides rupestris, Gadus morhua, blackbelly Helicolenus dactylopterus, Hippoglossoides platessoides, Reinhardtius hippoglossoides, and Sebastes mentella. We used an ensemble modelling approach employing three widely-used modelling methods: the Maxent maximum entropy model, Generalized Additive Models, and Random Forest. This dataset contains: 1) Predicted habitat suitability index under present-day (1951-2000) and future (2081-2100; RCP8.5) environmental conditions for twelve deep-sea species in the North Atlantic Ocean, using an ensemble modelling approach.  2) Climate-induced changes in the suitable habitat of twelve deep-sea species in the North Atlantic Ocean, as determined by binary maps built with an ensemble modelling approach and the 10-percentile training presence logistic (10th percentile) threshold. 3) Forecasted present-day suitable habitat loss (value=-1), gain (value=1), and acting as climate refugia (value=2) areas under future (2081-2100; RCP8.5) environmental conditions for twelve deep-sea species in the North Atlantic Ocean. Areas were identified from binary maps built with an ensemble modelling approach and two thresholds: 10-percentile training presence logistic threshold (10th percentile) and maximum sensitivity and specificity (MSS). Refugia areas are those areas predicted as suitable both under present-day and future conditions. All predictions were projected with the Albers equal-area conical projection centred in the middle of the study area. The grid cell resolution is of 3x3 km.
    Keywords: ATLAS; A Trans-Atlantic assessment and deep-water ecosystem-based spatial management plan for Europe; Climate change; cold-water corals; Deep-sea; File format; File name; File size; fisheries; fishes; habitat suitability modelling; octocorals; scleractinians; species distribution models; Uniform resource locator/link to file; vulnerable marine ecosystems
    Type: Dataset
    Format: text/tab-separated-values, 384 data points
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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    DATA PANGAEA
  • 2
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    Advancing Global Ecological Modeling Capabilities to Simulate Future Trajectories of Change in Marine Ecosystems (2020)
    Frontiers
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: Considerable effort is being deployed to predict the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the ocean's biophysical environment, biodiversity, and natural resources to better understand how marine ecosystems and provided services to humans are likely to change and explore alternative pathways and options. We present an updated version of EcoOcean (v2), a spatial-temporal ecosystem modeling complex of the global ocean that spans food-web dynamics from primary producers to top predators. Advancements include an enhanced ability to reproduce spatial-temporal ecosystem dynamics by linking species productivity, distributions, and trophic interactions to the impacts of climate change and worldwide fisheries. The updated modeling platform is used to simulate past and future scenarios of change, where we quantify the impacts of alternative configurations of the ecological model, responses to climate-change scenarios, and the additional impacts of fishing. Climate-change scenarios are obtained from two Earth-System Models (ESMs, GFDL-ESM2M, and IPSL-CMA5-LR) and two contrasting emission pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5) for historical (1950-2005) and future (2006-2100) periods. Standardized ecological indicators and biomasses of selected species groups are used to compare simulations. Results show how future ecological trajectories are sensitive to alternative configurations of EcoOcean, and yield moderate differences when looking at ecological indicators and larger differences for biomasses of species groups. Ecological trajectories are also sensitive to environmental drivers from alternative ESM outputs and RCPs, and show spatial variability and more severe changes when IPSL and RCP 8.5 are used. Under a non-fishing configuration, larger organisms show decreasing trends, while smaller organisms show mixed or increasing results. Fishing intensifies the negative effects predicted by climate change, again stronger under IPSL and RCP 8.5, which results in stronger biomass declines for species already losing under climate change, or dampened positive impacts for those increasing. Several species groups that win under climate change become losers under combined impacts, while only a few (small benthopelagic fish and cephalopods) species are projected to show positive biomass changes under cumulative impacts. EcoOcean v2 can contribute to the quantification of cumulative impact assessments of multiple stressors and of plausible ocean-based solutions to prevent, mitigate and adapt to global change.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 3
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    Workshop on the Development of Quantitative Assessment Methodologies based on Life- history traits, exploitation characteristics, and other relevant parameters for data-limited stocks (WKLIFEXII) (2023)
    International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) | Copenhagen, Denmark
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-12-20
    Description: The objective of the Twelfth Workshop on the Development of Quantitative Assessment Methodologies based on Life-history traits, exploitation characteristics, and other relevant parameters for data-limited stocks (WKLIFE XII) was to further develop methods for stock assessment, stock status, and catch advice for stocks in ICES Categories 2–6, focusing on the provision of sound advice rules adhering to the ICES advisory framework and principles for fisheries management. This report addresses (i) questions from different ICES assessment working groups and stakeholders regarding the applicability of the data-limited technical guidelines, (ii) the prioritisation of future tasks regarding the ICES data-limited framework, (iii) further development and testing of data-limited methodologies with specific focus on the review of the current ICES advice framework for stock Categories 4-6, spatial indicators, and reference points for surplus production models, and (iv) other relevant data-limited topics. A survey of participants resulted in a high prioritisation score of four topics of the ICES data-limited roadmap: (1) risk equivalence, best available science, guidelines and communication of data-limited methods, (2) value of information of different data-types and data preparation, (3) better advice for slow-growing species, and (4) observation and parameter uncertainty in empirical harvest control rules and length-based approaches. The current ICES approach for Category 5 and 6 stocks, with an advice for constant annual catch and a periodic reduction with a precautionary buffer, is a form of non-adaptive management and an initial review revealed that it may not be precautionary if a stock is overfished but also overly precautionary in other situations. An exploration of spatial indicators showed that these have the potential to inform on stock status. A stochastic definition of MSY Btrigger for surplus production models takes uncertainty into account and leads to higher reference values than the current definition for stocks with low and intermediate biomass variability.
    Description: Published
    Description: Refereed
    Keywords: MSE ; MSY ; Fishery management ; Stock Assessment ; Data-limited
    Repository Name: AquaDocs
    Type: Report
    Format: 118pp
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    PAPER (OA)
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